With Week 3 of the NFL season in the books, Broto Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy low targets and three sell high targets heading into Week 4!
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Deebo Samuel WR - San Francisco 49ers
Fansided
The 49ers offense is seemingly much bleaker than previously perceived with Jimmy Garoppolo in, in lieu of second-year quarterback Trey Lance. A horrendous collapse in Week 3 in a snooze-fest against the Broncos has several fantasy managers panicking about the future trajectory of the 49ers' fantasy weapons. However, Deebo Samuel shines as the lone bright spot on the darkened outlook of this team. Samuel tied for the team lead in Week 3 with eight targets (27.58%), catching five passes for 73 yards. His receiving splits topped all members of the depth chart. The do-it-all receiver handled his usual volume of rushing work with five carries but managed just six yards as the 49ers offensive line struggled to function as a unit. Several injuries to the backfield and their franchise quarterback will force head coach Kyle Shanahan to revert to his previous offensive system from 2021 that catered to Garoppolo’s skillset. That particular system of quick-hitting passes with low depth is where Samuel thrives. His ability to work in space against opposing defenses is next to none at the NFL level. The fourth-year wideout/running back hybrid has lacked elite production to begin the season, causing a natural dip in perceived value that managers should pounce on with a feverish hunger. Samuel is the number one offensive weapon on a team hell-bent on making a playoff run. The loss of Lance could force Shanahan’s hand into giving Samuel a monumental opportunity share moving forward. Pursue Samuel aggressively this week as a patented multi-faceted offensive performance is looming as the 49ers take on the Rams in Week 4.
Tyler Conklin TE - New York Jets
The market has yet to catch up to the wondrous start that Tyler Conklin has had to the 2022 season. Conklin has played 100.0% of the tight end snaps in all three of the Jets games, earning a 15.4% target share with his increased playing time this season. The former Vikings tight end currently ranks as the TE3 in PPG yet is ludicrously undervalued as a fantasy asset. Buying low on a currently high-producing asset may seem like an oxymoron. However, Conklin’s status as an early-season waiver wire addition can cause a common mistake wherein managers believe they are profiting off a cheaper asset for a high-profile player. For example, tight ends such as Dawson Knox and Mike Gesicki often hold higher value based on name and their respective offenses. Conklin has outproduced both players in every week of the 2022 season, including topping his fellow tight ends in all advanced metrics. The Jets are about to look a lot different with second-year quarterback Zach Wilson set to make his 2022 debut in Week 4 against a tough Steelers defense. Wilson’s natural arm strength will allow the Jets to push the ball downfield more often than with Joe Flacco under center, further opening up looks for Conklin as the safety blanket over the middle while Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore stretch the defense. The 27-year-old tight end is on an impressive streak of consistent production that dates back to his days as a Viking and can provide managers with an every-week starter for streamer prices.
Christian McCaffrey RB - Carolina Panthers
The Panthers offense is a horrid dumpster fire of lackadaisical production from the arrival of the mediocre mamba, Baker Mayfield. However, the lack of scoring drives produced thus far is no fault of the fantasy stud we know as Christian McCaffrey. The once-consensus RB1 has recorded over 100 rushing yards in back-to-back games, averaging 4.9 carries per tote in 2022. He leads the Panthers with ten total receptions, ranking fourth on the team with 57 yards. The elite receiving threat is averaging a 17.8% target share over the first three contests, demonstrating his insane upside. McCaffrey’s opportunity share currently ranks second in the NFL among running backs, with the dual-threat leading the league in snap percentage at the position. The sixth-year running back has an undeniable path to RB1 volume and still possesses the talent necessary to succeed with said opportunity. Fewer scoring chances will ultimately cap McCaffrey’s infinite ceiling but his current production and value do not reflect his potential to maintain league-winning status late into the season. I would attempt to swap an early bloomer for McCaffrey from a disappointed manager who felt they overpaid in the draft.
SELL HIGH
Greg Dortch WR - Arizona Cardinals
The early-season run of Greg Dortch was fun while it lasted. Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals training staff report that former second-round receiver Rondale Moore is on track to make his 2022 season debut within the next two weeks after being held out with a hamstring injury through the first three games. The Cardinals felt comfortable letting slot sensation Christian Kirk walk in the offseason as a free agent, opening up the role for Moore to feast in his natural position as a short-yardage YAC machine. Dortch is merely a placeholder during Moore’s stint on the sidelines and will immediately yield snaps to the promising youngster once he is healthy. The Cardinals may elect to shift undersized Dortch out of the slot position to the outside but that pipedream will soon be stifled as well with the inevitable return of DeAndre Hopkins after Week 6. I would not advise managers to continue holding Dortch as a pseudo-starter considering the massive changes that will take place on this offense. A three-game stretch of solid production is all managers need to hop off the Dortch bus and cash out on an unstable asset without a defined future.
Russell Gage WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Russell Gage had a terrific performance during a difficult matchup against the Packers in a showcase of two stout defenses. Gage led all Buccaneers receivers in snap percentage and route participation in Week 3, pacing the team in targets (12 TGT/28.57%), receptions (12) and yards (87), while scoring the team’s only touchdown. The only caveat to the veteran wideout’s impressive performance is the absence of Mike Evans (SUS), Chris Godwin (INJ), and Julio Jones (INJ). Gage was only afforded an increased opportunity in the stead of his fellow wideouts, all three of whom are listed ahead of the former Falcons receiver on the official depth chart. Gage was a popular late-round flier this offseason with hopes of the underrated wideout maintaining his career target share numbers alongside three alpha receivers. If the first two games with a healthy lineup are any indicator, Gage is merely a tertiary receiving option in a star-studded lineup. His volatility as a boom-or-bust producer is not worth the managerial headaches. Parade Gage’s high-scoring Week 3 statistics around your league and see who takes the bait.
Romeo Doubs WR - Green Bay Packers
Inevitably, someone would eventually step up and benefit from the utter dearth of receiving talent on the Packers' offense. As it stands right now, that someone appears to be fourth-round rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs. The avenue to lead the charge as the Packers' top receiver is wide open for the taking. Allen Lazard topped the official depth chart, geriatric Randall Cobb enjoying one last run with the boys, the “Lizard King” Sammy Watkins (IR) and unproven second-round rookie behemoth Christian Watson (INJ) rounding out the table. With two of those four names on the injury list to begin Week 3, Doubs went to work leading the offense with eight catches on eight targets (22.85%) for 73 yards and a touchdown. Although the rookie has impressed through three games by topping the team in all receiving stats (14 REC/16 TGT/137 YDS/1 TD), he has produced a middling target share of 17.02% as Aaron Rodgers feels content with allocating targets evenly throughout the offense. The Packers are passing at a lower rate than years prior, running 94 designed passes compared to 81 rushing plays. The continued development of fellow rookie teammate Watson coupled with a new run-first offense proposes a volatile combination for Doubs’ continued success as a true outlier in his first year as a pro. Any perceived uptick in value is founded on recency bias and the attachment to a future Hall of Fame quarterback rather than a trustworthy profile of future production from Doubs. Cashing out on low-hit rate players such as Doubs after outlier beginnings is a process that often yields positive results.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.