Welcome to The BRoto "Everything You Need To Know About" series. Throughout the offseason, we will deep-dive into players for the 2022 NFL season and describe the good, the bad, and everything in between.
SUBJECT:
Dawson Knox, TE - Buffalo Bills
Photo by Bill Wippert
THE GOOD:
Dawson Knox was one of the biggest surprises at the TE position last season. Going undrafted in most leagues and regularly ranked outside of the top 30 TEs, Knox finished in the top-12 at his position despite only being targeted 71 times–the 20th most in the league. The Buffalo Bills breakout made the best of his targets and was tied for first amongst TEs in receiving TDs with 9.
With so few targets and so many TDs, Knox is a popular regression candidate. It’s hard to support such a high TD rate and we’ve seen similar players fizzle out. In 2020, Green Bay Packers TE Robert Tonyan caught 11 TDs on 59 targets. Although he missed half of the 2021 season, he wasn’t nearly as efficient on a per-game basis last year. There’s a looming fear that Knox is headed down that same path.
There’s no reason, however, to worry about Knox’s TDs. While TDs are hard to predict, Knox’s consistent usage in the red zone is a boon for his value. As a rookie in 2019, Knox only saw 12% of his targets in the red zone. As a sophomore, that jumped to 20.5%, and this past year he had a career-high 25.4%. He also had the 5th most tight-end red-zone targets last season, with 17.
Knox also has the pleasure of catching passes from Josh Allen. Allen has thrown at least 36 TDs each of the last two seasons. He’s only 26 and hasn’t peaked yet.
THE BAD:
While TEs do take years to break out, Knox has remained a low-volume option since entering the league. His yards per reception (YPR) have remained stagnant from 2020 to 2021 and he averaged a paltry 3.3 receptions per game last season. Knox caught a nice 69% of his targets last season, up from 54.5% in 2020, and had a very high TD rate to turn those targets into points.
Let’s compare Knox to a mystery player, just for fun:
Knox 2021:
71 targets / 49 receptions / 587 yards / 9 TDs
Mystery Player 2021:
79 targets / 60 receptions / 497 yards / 7 TDs
Knox only averaged 1.2 more fantasy points per game than our mystery player in PPR scoring. So who was it? Pittsburgh Steelers rookie TE Pat Freiermuth! The difference? Efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers threw 664 times for 3778 yards and 23 TDs last season, while the Buffalo Bills threw 655 times for 4284 yards and 36 TDs. The Steelers converted 54.72% of their 50 red zone trips into TDs (21st), while the Bills converted a league-high 66.28% of their 77 red zone trips into TDs.
Pat Freiermuth is being drafted as the TE11, and going over a round after Knox. A similar player going even later is New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry, who saw 17 red zone targets (7th in the league and just one fewer than Knox). Both of these players have a chance to increase their production as well with better QB play. Trubisky and Pickett just need to be average to perform better than Ben Roethlisberger last season and Mac Jones is entering his second season after an impressive rookie debut.
SUPPORTING CAST:
Josh Allen. Need I say more? The 2018 first round pick out of Wyoming struggled mightily in his first few years, but he took a big leap forward in 2020 when he threw for over 4,500 yards. He also threw 37 TDs to only 10 INTs and added another 421 yards and 8 TDs on the ground. That wasn’t a fluke, either. Last season, he threw over 4,400 yards and 36 TDs while also amassing a whopping 763 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs. For most QBs, that’s a season that warrants MVP votes. For Josh Allen, it was just a taste of what he can do.
Creator: Jamie Squire
Copyright: 2021 Getty Images
Stefon Diggs is the main target on the team, and while he couldn’t replicate his incredible 2020 season in 2021, he still finished with 1,225 receiving yards and 10 TDs. With no legit WR2 emergence yet, it’s incredible how Diggs can still produce despite receiving all of the attention of defenses. Diggs saw the 3rd most double coverage in the league through November 19th, per PFF’s Dwain McFarland.
Third-year WR Gabriel Davis is a fantasy football darling, and a possible breakout candidate for 2022. Davis has suffered a similar fate to Knox in that they just can’t get themselves into a clear-cut 2nd receiving role on the team. Veterans Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders finished 2nd and 3rd on the team in targets last year but weren’t putting up massive receiving totals. We’re likely to see a similar approach for 2022, as former Jets WR Jamison Crowder is now on the team and Isaiah McKenzie is expected to take a step up as well. Although this middling receiving room (outside of Diggs) means Knox has hope to truly separate himself from the pack, the team has shown that they’d rather use a lot of budget veterans to pair with Diggs. There’s also the three-headed monster of RBs that the team is going to employ in the passing game, and Knox is in for a doozy.
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK:
The Bills are one of the best offenses in the game, if not the best. The offense ranked 4th in EPA/Play in 2021 and still haven’t found their true WR2 or starting RB. A lot of the credit should go to former OC Brian Daboll, who swiftly took this team from a bottom-5 offense to arguably the best we saw last year.
With Daboll gone, however, QBs coach Ken Dorsey will step into the offensive coordinator role. Dorsey’s been with the team since Josh Allen’s sophomore season, and before that was with the Panthers during Cam Newton’s greatest seasons. Expect Josh Allen to continue to succeed. Dorsey could certainly shake up how this offense rolls. During Dorsey’s time with the Panthers, Greg Olsen reached his peak and had multiple 1,000+ yard receiving seasons. Olsen, however, was seeing significantly higher usage than Knox has even seen. If Dorsey’s time in Carolina should be notable for anything, it should be for how great Cam Newton was used as a rushing threat. Josh Allen already had an electric rushing season last year, and it doesn’t look like we should expect anything less than a repeat.
ADP REVIEW:
Knox’s ADP has slowly but surely been dropping all off-season. Once the TE9, Knox has moved down a few spots and I believe he is closer to where he should be properly valued. It’s still not quite low enough for me to draft him.
Being tied to a great QB and overall offense along with his red-zone usage means Knox will always be in play for big games and lots of TDs.
Knox is the perfect high-upside backup TE for your fantasy team but I would not take him over Elijah Moore, Treylon Burks, Brandon Aiyuk, or Rashaad Penny–position players who are being drafted around Knox in terms of overall ADP. With other TE options like Pat Freiermuth and Hunter Henry putting up similar statlines a few rounds later, I’d rather pair one of those TEs with one of the receivers going around Knox’s ADP.
Also, players are humans too and I wouldn’t want to upload this without giving my condolences to the Knox family for the sudden and tragic loss of FIU TE Luke Knox, Dawson’s brother. If you feel so inclined, you can donate to P.U.N.T., as many already have at https://puntpediatriccancer.org/
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.