The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2022. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the AFC West division, bringing you quick-hitting bullets summarizing everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
Offensive Outlook
The biggest offseason storyline for the Chiefs is the departure of perennial All-Pro WR Tyreek Hill. The “Cheetah” is taking his talents and speed to South Beach to play for the Dolphins in 2022.
One constant remains the same: Andy Reid is still the Chiefs head coach, entering the 9th year of his tenure for the team. Reid is joined by perennial head coaching candidate and long-time offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
The Chiefs were 4th in scoring offense in 2021, passing on 61.0% of their offensive plays, which ranked 5th amongst all coaches that were not fired mid-season and 7th overall.
Notable Offensive Additions: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, RB Ronald Jones, Rookie WR Skyy Moore, Rookie RB Isiah Pacheco.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: WR Demarcus Robinson, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Byron Pringle.
Contract Holdouts: LT Orlando Brown.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes has finished with an A+ True Player Grade in every full season as a starter.
In 2021 Mahomes amassed a 98.7 True Player Grade, finishing 2nd in PPG with ten top-ten QB1 finishes.
Mahomes achieved these marks despite finishing 15th in yards per attempt, 30th in average depth of target, and 22nd in deep ball completion percentage.
Mahomes is an excellent value at ADP as a smash to finish within the top five quarterbacks.
Wide Receivers
Slot or not, JuJu is the most capable and talented wideout on the Chiefs offense.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman both had target shares below 15% in 2021 and are unlikely to step into a lead role.
JuJu, on the other hand, has succeeded in a target hog role and has a career target share of 21.2%.
If JuJu can maintain that career target percentage, he is staring down the barrel of a WR1 season.
JuJu’s current ADP of WR34 offers managers the opportunity to stack multiple high-end players on their roster with a low-risk investment in a receiver with legitimate top-12 upside.
Skyy Moore is an intriguing late-round pick at WR47. Moore’s Broto Player Comps are Brandin Cooks, Rashod Bateman, and T.Y. Hilton. His upside in a high-powered Chiefs offense is undeniable.
Running Backs
Expecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire to break out in his third season is a gamble on an incredible outlier scenario.
Edwards-Helaire is supposed to thrive in a pass-catching role with high-value targets from Mahomes but has yet to succeed in that scenario.
Edwards-Helaire averaged just 1.9 receptions and 12.9 receiving yards per game over ten contests in 2021.
Part of the reason for Edwards-Helaire’s low reception totals may be more a product of Mahomes' ability to find receivers deep than his lack of talent, as is exemplified in this article: Where Do Targets Come From?
Ronald Jones and Edwards-Helaire should have distinct roles, with Jones supplementing the smaller back in short-yardage and goal line situations.
Jerrick McKinnon returns as the craft veteran and could steal valuable touches from both of the previously mentioned running backs.
Jones is likely to lead the group in rushing touchdowns in 2022 and could have a career resurgence similar to Cardinals running back James Conner in 2021.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce accumulated five consecutive seasons as the TE1 overall in fantasy, only to be dethroned by the streaking sensation of Mark Andrews in 2021.
Kelce is still the consensus TE1 in redraft despite Andrews’ ascent.
With a first round ADP, Kelce may not be as safe a pick as people assume in the upcoming season.
Kelce only had five games below TE20 from 2017 through 2020. The all-elite sensation fell below TE20 during four weeks in 2021 alone.
Kelce’s yards per reception and yards per target were the lowest averages of his career in 2021.
The future hall of fame tight end is a lock for a top-five finish in 2022 but may not be worth his lofty ADP.
Bold Prediction
JuJu Smith-Schuster finishes as a WR1 in 2022, scoring more points than Travis Kelce in the process.
Offensive Outlook
The Raiders are entering a new era with former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels taking on the vacant head coaching position.
Mick Lombardi joins McDaniels, leaving his role as the Patriots wide receiver coach to become the Raiders offensive coordinator.
Notable Additions on Offense: WR Davante Adams, RB Ameer Abdullah, RB Brandon Bolden, WR Demarcus Robinson, WR Mack Hollins, WR Keelan Cole, G Dylan Parham, Rookie RB Zamir White.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: QB Marcus Mariota, WR Bryan Edwards, WR Desean Jackson, WR Zay Jones.
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr finished as the QB13 overall but was QB18 in PPG and QB25 in True Throw Value during the 2021 season.
Carr has never exceeded a True Player Grade higher than C since 2016, including two F grade fantasy seasons.
Carr finished with just six QB1 performances in 2021, with ten weeks falling into the QB2 or below.
Davante Adams seems to be the sole reason for Carr’s QB13 ADP.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams has put up six straight seasons with a True Player Grade of A- or better with four consecutive A+ seasons.
Adams commands targets at a consistently sticky rate and is coming off a season where he ranked second in the NFL in target share at 31.2%.
Adams' path to high-volume targets should not be in question. However, his production may decline due to catching less valuable targets from Carr as opposed to Aaron Rodgers.
Hunter Renfrow is a value at ADP, considering his cost as WR40.
Renfrow finished as the WR11 overall in 2021, averaging 15.2 PPG (WR16). He is unlikely to repeat as a WR1 but is still an excellent target at price.
Running Backs
The Raiders declined to pick up Josh Jacobs' fifth-year option this offseason, leaving Jacobs without job security beyond the 2022 season.
Jacobs is coming off a quietly impressive season as a passer with career highs in receptions (54) and receiving yards (348) and nine total touchdowns.
Jacobs ended the 2021 season as RB13 in PPG, averaging 15.1.
Unfortunately, Jacobs is an incredibly volatile asset to the roster and is a product of increased volume that may not exist in 2022. He averaged just 0.80 fantasy points per opportunity in 2021 and ranked 40th amongst running backs last season.
Jacobs was quoted saying he does not want a workhorse role and wants to share the load with the other talents in this backfield.
Third-round rookie running back Zamir White is an intriguing upside coin flip. White was formerly the highest-rated collegiate football recruit of his class before having his NCAA career derailed due to injury.
This backfield is likely a running back by committee approach as McDaniels has used throughout his career as the offensive coordinator for the Patriots.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller’s ADP of TE5 falls in the running back dead zone during the 6th round of fantasy drafts and is a great pivot option in that area.
Waller is coming off a season lost to several nagging injuries but recorded 107 receptions, 1196 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 2020.
Waller and Adams should feast as the Raiders' primary receivers in 2022.
Bold Predictions
Josh Jacobs does not lead the Raiders backfield in scoring.
Zamir White takes over as the lead option and paces the Raiders backfield in scoring.
Darren Waller finishes as a top-three tight end.
Hunter Renfrow doubles his ADP value, finishing as the WR20 overall.
Offensive Outlook
This is the second year for Brandon Staley as the head coach of the Chargers after working under Rams HC Sean McVay as the defensive coordinator in 2020. Joe Lombardi continues his tenure as the Chargers offensive coordinator, hoping to find similar success to his days as the Saints quarterback coach during the Drew Brees era.
The Chargers were 5th in scoring offense in 2021, passing 61.4% of the time, ranking sixth in the NFL and fourth for any team that did not fire their coach mid-season.
Notable Additions on Offense: TE Gerald Everett, Rookie G Zion Johnson, Rookie RB Isaiah Spiller.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: WR Andre Roberts, TE Jared Cook.
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert finished 2021 as the QB2 overall and QB3 in PPG.
In his first two seasons as a pro, Herbert has totaled 9350 passing yards with 69 (nice) touchdowns with only 25 interceptions. He has also accumulated 536 yards and eight touchdowns in those two seasons.
Herbert already has two True Player Grades of A+ to begin his young career.
The third-year gunslinger is entering 2022 with a similar supporting cast and one more year of experience under his belt. He is a smash pick to finish within the top-five quarterbacks and is rightfully drafted as the QB3 overall.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler is coming off a career year as the RB2 in PPG, averaging 21.4 per.
Ekeler was not the most efficient rusher, falling short of the 1000-yard threshold despite having 206 rushing attempts. He supplemented any efficiencies on the ground with 671 receiving yards on a 15.1% target share.
Ekeler is the definition of a PPR cheat code, ranking fourth in Scrimmage Yards Over Expected in 2021.
Isaiah Spiller should have a similar role to Justin Jackson as a handcuff with minimal weekly upside if the starter is healthy.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen is the WR1, and Mike Williams is the WR2 on the roster and for fantasy purposes.
Allen recorded a 24.2% target share after Williams’ early season rise in opportunity regressed to his career norms.
Williams finished the season with a 20.2% target share, directly in line with his previous career averages.
Their ADP reflects their respective roles as Allen is going off draft boards as the WR11 and Williams as the WR 21. However, in best ball formats, their ADP is nearly identical at WR12 and WR13, respectively.
The WR3 battle for the Chargers comes down to Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer.
Neither Guyton nor Palmer averaged more than 6.5 PPG in 2021. Guyton had more snaps in 2021, and Palmer had a higher target percentage. These two wide receivers do not present much upside outside best ball formats.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett’s career-high season in 2021 was remarkably disappointing. The former Seahawks' tight end managed just 48 receptions for 478 yards and four touchdowns.
Justin Herbert targets tight ends sparingly, with his top tight end Jared Cook finishing outside the top-15 tight ends in PPG as the TE17.
Donald Parham seems stuck behind a logjam of veterans throughout his career and should not be rostered in redraft formats barring injury to Everett.
Bold Predictions
The Los Angeles Chargers lead the league in offense and win the Super Bowl.
Josh Palmer finishes ahead of WR55 in PPG.
Justin Herbert and Mike Williams lead their respective positions in touchdowns in 2022.
Austin Ekeler RB1, Keenan Allen WR1, Justin Herbert QB1 (OVERALL!
Offensive Outlook
The Broncos have a completely new offensive outlook for the 2022 season. Nathaniel Hackett steps away from his role as the offensive coordinator for the Packers to become the Broncos' head coach.
Justin Outten takes over as the Broncos new offensive coordinator, following Hackett over from the Packers after serving as their tight end coach.
Notable Additions on Offense: QB Russel Wilson, Rookie TE Greg Dulcich.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: WR Desean Hamilton, QB Teddy Bridgewater, QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant.
Quarterbacks
Russel Wilson’s ADP of QB10 does not reflect his potential ceiling.
In 2021 Wilson finished as the QB13 in PPG while playing through injuries in one of the league's lowest-scoring offenses.
Wilson finished fifth in True Throw Value, sixth in yards per attempt and first in average target depth.
Wilson is finally outside the feeble offensive schemes of Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carrol and now has an opportunity to live up to his consistent top-10 True Throw Value rankings.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon will share the backfield for at least one more season, limiting Williams' work rate as a stand-alone RB1.
Williams' second-round ADP is filled with risk.
The duo’s usage from 2021 was locked in a 50/50 split throughout 17 games and will likely remain a committee as long as both are healthy.
Williams is a per-touch monster in 2021, evading 81 tackles with 841 yards created after contact and 3.42 yards created per touch but will not get the necessary volume to maintain RB1 production.
Gordon was also incredibly effective last season, averaging more yards per carry (4.5/4.4) and RYOE/ATT (0.61/0.51).
Gordon represents the better value at ADP, considering the likelihood of a split backfield.
Wide Receivers (recorded before Tim Patrick’s season ending ACL tear)
The Broncos have a lot of mouths to feed in 2022, with Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler all carrying distinct roles in the offense.
In 2021 Jeudy finished with an 18.9% target share (8.5 PPG); Sutton finished with an 18.1% target share (8.8 PPG); Tim Patrick finished with a 16.6% target share (9.8 PPG).
Patrick led the team with four top 24 WR performances. Sutton had three top 24 WR performances, and Jeudy managed just a single week above the top 24 WR threshold.
Patrick represents the best value with the lowest ADP, but Sutton is likely the main outside threat while Jeudy reprises his role in the slot.
Jeudy has played in 25 career games and has managed only three performances inside the top 30 WRs in fantasy.
Tight Ends
Albert Okweugbunam takes over as the de facto TE1 after the Broncos moved Noah Fant as part of the package to acquire Russell Wilson.
Albert O possesses similar athletic traits to Fant and has shown flashes of high-level production throughout his young three-year career.
If Albert O can maintain a target share above 15%, he can efficiently finish as a low-end TE1 in 2022.
Bold Predictions
Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon finish within 1.0 PPG of one another.
Tim Patrick has the second highest target share on the Broncos in 2022.
Jerry Jeudy finishes outside of the top 36 wide receivers in PPG.
FANTASY FOOTBALL BY BROTO APP TIP OF THE DAY
True Throw Value
A BRoto Fantasy exclusive stat that can be found in our True Value Package. True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's total volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Managers can essentially understand this exclusive metric as Adjusted Fantasy Points Per Attempt. For an extensive review on how True Throw Value affects performance, check out this 2021 year in review series: Fantasy Football - True Value Olympics - Quarterbacks
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.
The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store!
Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.