Overall finish at a position can be very misleading and, in many cases, can provide a disingenuous argument for or against a player. Points per game is a far more reliable stat, as it compares each player on a per game basis rather than a full season. This is especially relevant for players who played the whole season, inflating their end of year stats. AJ Dillon, for example, finished 2021 as the RB22, but was the RB33 in points per game—which shows he may not have been as reliable as the overall finish would make you think.
In Part Two of the Overall Finish/PPG Report, I have highlighted 18 players with notable discrepancies between their overall finish and their points per game in order to give you a better viewpoint on each player, with a small takeaway for each.
Part One highlighted players with a PPG finish better than their overall finish. Read that here.
Part two will highlight players with a PPG finish worse than their overall finish.
The players are listed in order of net difference. Here we go.
1. Robbie Anderson (CAR WR)
Overall Finish - WR56
PPG Finish - WR78
Net Difference +22
ADP - WR73
Takeaway: Robbie’s 2022 season was even worse than imagined. A WR78 PPG finish for a guy who was healthy and played over 87% of snaps with an 18.4% target share is next level bad. His current ADP rightfully reflects his abysmal season. Even with Baker Mayfield entering the fold in Carolina, I have little interest in Anderson as anything more than a desperation best ball pick.
2. Mecole Hardman (KC WR)
Overall Finish - WR57
PPG Finish - WR80
Net Difference +23
ADP - WR65
Takeaway: Yes, Mecole Hardman was significantly worse than his WR57 overall finish, which was bad enough as is. WR80 in PPG is a completely useless player and Hardman was in his third season in the league. Even without Tyreek Hill, I have no interest in Mecole Hardman this fantasy season.
3. Courtland Sutton (DEN WR)
Overall Finish - WR42
PPG Finish - WR62
Net Difference +20
ADP - WR20
Takeaway: Courtland Sutton had quite the up and down season in 2021. He was a top 10 WR three of the first six weeks of the season as the alpha WR with Jerry Jeudy out with an injury. Then, with a fully healthy team around him, Sutton went the final nine weeks without a single finish within the top 45 WRs. A huge drop in production. Sutton also did not receive anywhere near the target share fantasy managers would have liked. His target share percentage of 18.1% ranked 29th in the NFL and was .8% less than Jerry Jeudy and just 1.5% more than Tim Patrick. Odd usage across the board. The good news for Sutton, however, is that Russell Wilson has joined the Denver Broncos to bring much needed stability to their QB room. This trade has made Sutton much more enticing, as evidenced by his WR20 ADP. While 2021 was a let down for Sutton, a DK Metcalf type season with a target share above 25% is not all that difficult to imagine. Sutton is the best WR on the team, in my opinion, and I expect Russell Wilson to treat him as such. The ADP is a little bit hefty, and while I would prefer drafting Sutton around WR25, I understand the immense upside of drafting him at WR20 and believe he has a good shot to meet or exceed that ranking.
4. Gabriel Davis (BUF WR)
Orlando Sentinel
Overall Finish - WR50
PPG Finish - WR65
Net Difference +15
ADP: WR31
Takeaway: There are two sides to the Gabriel Davis coin.
On the anti-Davis side, the man simply did not make the strides you want to see in a young WR from year 1 to year 2. He once again caught just 35 balls and ended with 50 less yards and 1 less TD than his sophomore season. He could not break out alongside Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox as the secondary and tertiary options and was just WR70 in True Target Value. All this relative disappointment from his sophomore season and his ADP has skyrocketed to WR31.
On the pro-Davis side, all we have is potential, potential, potential. While the numbers may not look good on the surface for Davis, he put up an absolutely monstrous playoff line of 8/201/4 against the Chiefs, and games like that do not happen by accident. He also played very well in games where he had the opportunity, performing as a top 24 option in the four games that he saw over 80% of snaps. Now there is no Sanders or Beasley on the roster and Davis is set to be the main second option in this dynamic passing offense.
For me, I am somewhere in the middle here. I think Davis makes sense at WR31 and I am okay taking the chance on my WR3. However, his ADP continues to increase and he will likely be closer to WR20 by the time September comes around. At any price at or below WR25, I am okay taking the chance on him.
5. Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB)
Overall Finish - QB23
PPG Finish - QB34
Net Difference +11
ADP: QB18
Takeaway: Trevor Lawrence had a very rough rookie season. He led the league with 17 interceptions and threw just 12 TDs. While he ended as the 23rd QB overall, he was useless on a per game basis, ending as the QB34. Now, heading into his second season with additions like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence’s ADP is up to QB18. With the new weapons, the hopeful second year leap, and the rushing ability he showed his rookie season, I understand the rise in ADP. Still, QB18 is a bit too rich for my taste.
6. AJ Dillon (GB RB)
Overall Finish: RB22
PPG Finish: WR33
Net Difference +11
ADP: RB27
Takeaway: There is quite the difference between being a playable low end RB2 or a low end RB3. Dillon’s season was a tale of two halves though. After one top 24 finish in the first eight weeks, Dillon managed five top 24 finishes in the last 8 weeks, with no weekly finish below RB31. He now goes into the 2022 season in a similar role, sharing RB duties with stud RB Aaron Jones. If drafting Dillon, you are betting on an increased role for the third year RB. For me, the RB27 cost is a bit too pricey for the back end of the GB RB committee, though he has elite upside if Jones were to get hurt.
7. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL RB)
Overall Finish: RB6
PPG Finish: RB16
Net Difference +10
ADP: RB17
Takeaway: Ezekiel Elliot’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. Yes, he was only RB16 in PPG in 2021, much different than what his overall RB6 season would make you think, but he played almost the entire season with an injury. He still finished top 10 in the league in rushing yards, rushing TDs and receptions and was 4th in the league in red zone opportunities. He was also tied for 4th in the league with 7 RB1 performances, the same as Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb. He is not going to suddenly secede all his work to Tony Pollard either. The Cowboys are going to continue to work Zeke and feed him touches. He also has increased pass catching appeal with Amari Cooper out the door. Draft Zeke at ADP.
8. DK Metcalf (SEA WR)
Overall Finish: WR10
PPG Finish: WR19
Net Difference +9
ADP: WR15
Takeaway: If DK Metcalf could not finish as a top 15 PPG option with Russell Wilson at QB, what are the odds he can pull that off with Drew Lock or Geno Smith at QB? With Pete Carroll still at head coach rushing the ball 980 times per game, I just cannot draft Metcalf at his cost.
9. Darnell Mooney (CHI WR)
Overall Finish: WR26
PPG Finish: WR35
Net Difference +9
ADP: WR33
Takeaway: Darnell Mooney put together an impressive sophomore campaign totaling 1055 yards and 4 TDs on 81 receptions. Entering his third year as the clear cut first option in the Chicago passing offense, Mooney should return value at his cost of WR33, but his ceiling is capped in the current Bears offense.
10. Hunter Renfrow (LV WR)
Overall Finish: WR13
PPG Finish:WR22
Net Difference +9
ADP: WR30
Takeaway: Hunter Renfrow was about as impressive as he could have been in 2021, but his WR13 overall finish does not tell the full story, as he was more of a low end WR2 on a per game basis. Now, with Davante Adams entering the fold, it is difficult to see a path to Renfrow seeing the 20% target share he received in 2021. However, this passing offense is likely to be funneled almost entirely through Adams, Renfrow and Waller. Renfrow should remain a solid WR3, making him a decent enough pick at ADP.
11. Tony Pollard (DAL RB)
Overall Finish: RB28
PPG Finish:WR37
Net Difference +9
ADP: RB31
Takeaway: Tony Pollard is one of the best handcuffs in the game, but as long as Zeke is around, he will struggle with week to week consistency. His ADP is too high for my liking as he is more of a handcuff bet than he is a weekly RB2.
12. Antonio Gibson (WSH RB)
Overall Finish: RB12
PPG Finish:RB20
Net Difference +8
ADP: RB16
Takeaway: Antonio Gibson was a let down in 2021 as the dream of him becoming Christian McCaffrey-lite did not come to fruition. He had zero RB1 finishes through the first 8 weeks of the season but did improve immensely over the second half, with four RB1 finishes over the final 7 weeks. The issue is that JD McKissic was injured during this time and the Commanders drafted Brian Robinson in the third round of the draft. At RB16 ADP, it will be tough for Gibson to match his cost.
13. Michael Pittman (IND WR)
Overall Finish: WR21
PPG Finish: WR29
Net Difference +8
ADP: WR13
Takeaway: I will be drafting Michael Pittman zero times this season at ADP in redraft leagues. I still cannot believe he is being drafted at the cost of WR13. Yes, he ended as the WR21 last season in his sophomore season, but he was the WR29 in PPG. A big difference. He was fairly mediocre several weeks last season, ending outside the top 36 WRs in 7 of 16 weeks. He also saw 129 targets on the season, which was 14th and had a 24.8% target share, good for ninth in the league. His true target value was 25th, so he even slightly underperformed based on True Target Value. Matt Ryan, his new QB, ended 27th in True Throw Value in 2021 and 22nd in 2020. Carson Wentz was 20th in True Throw Value in 2021 and was 16th in pass attempts, so it is not like the Colts were not passing the ball at all. The issue with me for Pittman is that for him to even reach his ADP he will either need Matt Ryan to be way better than Wentz was last season, which is not a guarantee as he has been worse than QB20 in True Throw Value each of the last three years. Pittman will need to become a target share guy closer to 30% like the Davante Adams’ of the world or he will need to score double digit TDs. These are pretty steep asks and that is just to match ADP, not to beat it. I cannot get behind Michael Pittman at ADP this year.
14. Christian Kirk (JAX WR)
Overall Finish: WR24
PPG Finish: WR32
Net Difference +8
ADP: WR45
Takeaway: Kirk just had his best season in his 4th year, finishing the season as a top 30 WR for the first time ever, however, he ended the season as WR32 in PPG. This was with Kyler Murray at QB of course, and he totaled 103 targets on the year. Among QBs with 100 or more pass attempts last season, Kyler was 13th in True Throw Value. Trevor Lawrence, Kirk’s new QB, was 43rd. This is a big drop off in efficiency. The difference here though, is that Kirk is going to be looked at as the go to guy for Lawrence, rather than the secondary or even tertiary option at times for Kyler. The way I see it, Kirk is going to be a bit of a headache. Laviska Shenault was the #1 WR during draft time for the Jags for fantasy last season and he ended the season as WR58 on waiver wires. Marvin Jones ended up being the WR1 and he ended 46th in PPG. At an ADP of WR45 I am fine taking the shot on Kirk, but expecting anything more than a volatile WR3/Flex is asking too much.
15. DJ Moore (CAR WR)
Overall Finish: WR20
PPG Finish: WR28
Net Difference +8
ADP: WR18
Takeaway: DJ Moore is a tremendous talent that has been consistently held back by QB play. That is likely to continue through 2022, even with Baker Mayfield at the helm. He is a safe pick at ADP but has a capped ceiling in the Panthers offense.
16. Cole Kmet (CHI TE)
Overall Finish: TE22
PPG Finish: TE29
Net Difference +7
ADP: TE13
Takeaway: Cole Kmet somehow ended top 10 in targets, receptions, receiving yards and target share for TEs and still ended as the TE29 in PPG. Goodness gracious that is absurd. Yes, he scored 0 TDs, and yes that is very unlikely to repeat, but a lot needs to change for Kmet to meet his ADP. Count me out this season.
17. Kyle Pitts (ATL TE)
Overall Finish: TE5
PPG Finish: TE11
Net Difference +6
ADP: TE3
Takeaway: Pitts had a historic rookie season for a rookie TE. TE1 overall is squarely in his range of outcomes for each of the next handful of seasons, at least. Sure the price is steep, but I will not blame you if you take the chance on him.
18. Damien Harris (NE RB)
Overall Finish: RB13
PPG Finish: RB18
Net Difference +5
ADP: TE25
Takeaway: Imagine scoring 15 TDs and ending outside the top 12 RBs overall while operating as a mid range RB2 on a week to week basis. Absurd. Damien Harris has arguably the lowest ceiling of any starting running back in the NFL. Even at RB25 I am not super interested. Purely a safe pick.
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By Michael Petropoulos
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.