NFL Week 3 Takeaways

Injury Roundup

QB Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins

Briefly left game with concussion: Returned to the game and not expected to miss time

QB Mac Jones - New England Patriots

High-Ankle Sprain: Expected to miss at least 1 game

RB Dalvin Cook - Minnesota Vikings

Shoulder injury: Considered day-to-day but trending towards playing

RB D’Andre Swift - Detroit Lions

Shoulder sprain: May miss time

RB David Montgomery - Chicago Bears

Ankle and knee injury: Serious injury likely avoided and considered day-to-day

WR Michael Thomas - New Orleans Saints

Toe injury: Could miss time

Game Recaps

Bengals @ Jets

Tyler Conklin is a TE1

We can’t deny it anymore. Tyler Conklin is a TE1 until further notice. It’s easy to point to Joe Flacco’s ridiculous passing attempts as the root of his success but Conklin is constantly on the field and has competed for a big target share these past two weeks. There are four mouths to feed on this offense, and Conklin is one of them. Outside of Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall, nobody else on this team is receiving a notable target share on a consistent basis. Conklin is a key cog in this machine and will continue to be a safe option even when pass attempts begin to decline.

Raiders @ Titans

Mack Hollins Shines

Hunter Renfrow missed Week 3, allowing Mack Hollins to step into the WR2 role. He caught 8 of his 10 targets for 158 yards and a TD. Once Renfrow returns, Hollins should be the WR3 and is not a must-add in fantasy. Darren Waller and Davante Adams are still the best receivers on this team. Hollins is a good fill-in if any miss time but putting him in your starting lineup when everyone is healthy means you’re banking on a mid-game injury. He’s 29 and hasn’t had success in the past. Don't blow your FAAB on him in 12-teamers.

Saints @ Panthers

Chris Olave Can’t be Ignored

The OROTY race is heating up. With no rookie QBs getting real playing time, WRs are battling for the award, with New York Jets RB Breece Hall in the mix for consideration. Chris Olave is becoming a bright spot in an otherwise stale New Orleans Saints offense. Part of that is because QB Jameis Winston has been playing hurt but Olave has still managed to thrive. After a quiet Week 1, Olave took over nearly 1/3rd of team targets in Weeks 2 and 3. Pending MNF, Olave is 7th in the league in receiving yards. He’s in a great situation playing alongside other good WRs in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. His speed was one of his biggest assets and he’s making the most of it. As long as the Saints continue to play from behind, he’s going to eat.

Ravens @ Patriots

Lamar Jackson Should Win MVP

If the Ravens defense continues to get pummeled but the team still makes the playoffs, Lamar Jackson deserves his 2nd MVP award and a new stadium named after him. Jackson’s throwing nearly 250 yards per game on top of his 13 TDs to only 2 INTs. He also has at least 100 rushing yards and a rushing TD in each of his past two games. The Ravens are on top of the AFC North and should have been 3-0 if not for a historic defensive meltdown in the 4th quarter against the Dolphins in Week 2. None of the other frontrunners are having unbelievable starts to the season. Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes have either the skill or the team around them to post incredible stat lines but, unless a miracle happens in the middle of the season, Lamar Jackson will begin to run away with this.

Lions @ Vikings

Jamaal Williams Vultures Again

D’Andre Swift does all of the heavy lifting but doesn’t get to run in for the TDs. There’s speculation that this is to keep Swift healthy, especially since he just suffered a shoulder injury that could keep him off the field for some time. Jamaal Williams already has 4 rushing TDs and the scoring shouldn’t stop if Swift does miss time. Williams going to be a flex play even when Swift starts, especially with the Lions offense taking risks on 4th down and generally scoring a lot.

Eagles @ Commanders

Super Bowl or Bust

That’s what this Eagles team needs to achieve. I’m not going to give them too many props for shutting down lowly Carson Wentz but the talent has become undeniable. You just can’t stop the RBs and Hurts from rushing while also stopping AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert through the air. Until a team can find a formula to stifle the Eagles, they’re going to continue to score at will. If the offense is contained, the Eagles defense is going to pressure teams until they give up. Expectations are sky high and it will be a disappointing season if they’re eliminated early in the playoffs.

Chiefs @ Colts

Jelani Woods Introduces Himself

Towering over his puny opponents, a 6’7 behemoth named Jelani Woods takes off at the sound of a whistle. A puff of smoke is left behind and the cornerback spins around like a Looney Tunes character as Woods explodes past him. The pass perfectly lands in his hand. Touchdown.

Woods is the most athletic tight end in NFL history based on RAS (relative athletic score), and he made himself known to the public after scoring twice in a win against the Kansas City Chiefs. The rookie hadn’t seen a lot of playing time before this game, as he had his first ever target in this affair. His size is impressive but his speed is unbelievable. Per PlayerProfiler, Woods is in the 89th percentile for the 40-yard dash and has a 94th percentile speed score. He also has a 98th percentile catch radius.

Athleticism isn’t the only thing that matters but this is a beautiful start to his career. I would not be rushing to pick him up in any redraft leagues but everyone should be putting bids in for him in dynasty if he was somehow still available. He was free in rookie drafts and was a great taxi squad stash but it’s okay to pick him up now. Just remember that rookie TE’s take time.

Texans @ Bears

Khalil Herbert Rushes to Victory

Last week, I talked about how both Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery were startable as long as this Bears offense continues to focus on the run regardless of game situation. I did not expect this. David Montgomery suffered an ankle injury early in Sunday’s game against the Texans, paving the way for Khalil Herbert to get a massive workload. Herbert didn’t squander this opportunity and amassed 157 yards and 2 TDs on only 20 carries. He didn’t do much in the air but he was never utilized much in the passing game in college anyway. David Montgomery likely avoided a serious injury but Herbert is becoming one of the best backup RBs who should continue to offer stand alone value in this offense. Along with the other NFC North backups, he is one of the best waiver adds this week.

The Texans TE Situation

O.J. Howard has 4 targets this season. He was a popular waiver wire candidate in fantasy circles after Week 1 but that 2 TD performance was a clear fluke. He played only 17% of offensive snaps in that game, being out-snapped by both Brevin Jordan and Pharaoh Brown. The next week, Pharaoh Brown lead the TEs in targets. This past Sunday they looked to Brown and Jordan Akins, who caught a TD and out-snapped Howard. Akins has been with Houston since being drafted by them in 2018 and will continue to poach snaps from Howard if Pharaoh Brown and Brevin Jordan miss time. Howard should not be rostered anywhere.

Jaguars @ Chargers

Are the Jaguars Good?

It’s time to admit it. The Jaguars are really good. HC Doug Pederson is a breath of fresh air over Urban Meyer and is unlocking this team’s full potential and making the best of Trevor Lawrence’s sophomore season. If you’re going to draft one of the best QB prospects of the past decade, this is how you should treat them. The entire division is pretty middling despite solid bounce-backs by the Colts and Titans. The division is up for grabs and the Jaguars will be competing for that division crown. It’s too early to call it but the Jags are making it interesting.

James Robinson Didn’t Get the Memo

History tells us that RBs don’t do very well in the season following an Achilles tear. James Robinson smacks history in the face and spits on it. He’s leading the team in rushing and nearly doubling Travis Etienne’s performance. He already had 3 rushing TDs and is getting nearly even work in the passing game. Etienne may end up dominating the receiving work by the end of the year but it’s just incredible to see Robinson handle a workload on this team following a scary injury.

Austin Ekeler Panic?

The first round fantasy RBs have been disappointing so far, and Austin Ekeler is no exception. 32 carries for 80 yards and 0 TDs is not good. This isn’t the time to panic on Ekeler, though. What he lacks on the ground he makes up for in the air. Ekeler has caught 21 of his 22 targets for 139 yards. The efficiency is bad but he’s still averaging 14.3 PPR PPG thanks to his absurd 7 receptions per game. The Chargers have not had the game-script in their favor. The first two weeks they led for a good chunk of the game and Ekeler saw 14 carries in each one. In the blowout to the Jaguars, the Chargers never held a lead and were only tied for the first quarter so Ekeler got 4 carries. The schedule gets lighter for a few weeks which should be a relief for Ekeler owners. Expect the rushing efficiency and volume to increase while he also gets a healthy receiving workload. Buy low.

Packers @ Buccaneers

Doubs and Dubs

Rookie WR Romeo Doubs saw modest work in the first two weeks of the season but he exploded against the Buccaneers this week. After snap percentages of 57% and 37%, Doubs played 89% of all offensive snaps and led the team in targets. In Broto’s Week 3 Rookie Report, Gianluca suggested you add Doubs to your bench. If you listened, he just saved you a waiver wire decision. The Packers may still be trying to find their true WR1 but Doubs is making a case for Aaron Rodgers to keep feeding him.

Buy Low on the Bucs

Tampa Bay looks awful on offense. They’re averaging under 18 points scored per game, which is worse than the Jets, Bears, and Panthers. I understand that they’re running out of NFL talent to throw to and that Tom Brady is old, but they look lost most of the time. This defense, however, continues to carry them and they should get healthy receivers sooner rather than later. Mike Evans was suspended for a game for fighting with Saints CB Marshon Lattimore and Chris Godwin still hasn’t practiced with a hamstring injury. Julio Jones practiced in limited fashion on Friday but was ultimately ruled out due to a knee injury. The team is playing it safe right now to keep their receivers healthy before a potential Super Bowl run. Mike Evans will definitely return, and we’ll eventually get Godwin and Jones back. The rest of this division is putrid.

I’m taking the over on the Bucs win total of 11.5 and sprinkling some money on their divisional odds at -300 and NFC Champions odds at +450. Outside of the Eagles, nearly every team has a fault. The Rams, Packers, and Cowboys could bounce back but the Bucs are going to suffocate teams with their defense. They just need a solid offense to keep winning.

Falcons @ Seahawks

The Seahawks Can’t Run the Ball

Going up against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st against the run in EPA, Pete Carroll had the perfect opportunity to use Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker III to dominate Atlanta. It looked like that was going to be the case when the team ran 6 times on the opening drive, and Penny got 4 of those. That was all for nothing, as they only ran the ball 23 times in the game. Despite the great matchup, it wasn’t all too hard to predict it. Per BRoto’s coaching tendencies, the Seahawks were passing at the 9th highest rate when leading and the 3rd highest when tied. This game was close throughout, and the Seahawks were never down by more than 7 points. The team has an amazing group of pass-catchers that they’re leaning on, so this trend should continue. Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker III will have little value on the ground but Walker is getting a decent amount of targets on limited snaps, which points to him being the back to own in fantasy.

Kyle Pitts is Back

There was nothing to worry about. Like I said in Week 1, Pitts was getting usage and it was just a matter of time before that turned into points. Don’t expect performances like this every week, though. The Seahawks were the worst team in EPA against the pass heading into this week. There aren’t too many amazing defenses left on the schedule but the Falcons still have to play Tampa Bay twice. It’s just good to see Pitts finally get some fantasy points. Thanks, Arthur Smith. Don’t make me regret saying that.

49ers @ Broncos

We’re Running Out of Good Teams

There are bad games and then there’s this. Sunday Night Football audiences didn’t deserve to watch Jimmy Garoppolo turn into Dan Orlovsky while Russell Wilson got carried to a win by his defense.

It’s becoming clear that there are barely any NFC contenders outside of the Eagles, and the AFC is not doing much better. A team like the Rams or Bucs will need to step it up as the season progresses to convince anyone that they can make the Super Bowl. It has been a rough start for everyone in the NFC.

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By Themi Michalakis

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