The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2022. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the AFC South division, bringing you quick-hitting bullets summarizing everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
Bleacher Report
Offensive Outlook
The Jaguars rid themselves of the pestilent incompetence that was the disaster of Urban Meyer as head coach. The team will look to right their wrongs in 2022 by hiring former Super Bowl-winning head coach and lauded quarterback guru Doug Pederson after he spent five seasons with the Eagles.
Press Taylor will serve as Pederson’s offensive coordinator. The pair have become familiar with one another during Taylor’s time as the quarterback coach for Pederson on the Eagles staff.
The Jaguars made several splashes in free agency, allocating some of the offseason’s biggest contracts to some peculiar names.
Notable Additions on Offense: G Brandon Scherff, WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram, Rookie C Luke Fortner, Rookie RB Snoop Conner.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: WR D.J. Chark, RB Carlos Hyde.
Quarterbacks
Rookie quarterbacks were once afforded a grace period of development as their first seasons are rarely successful. The recent breakouts of Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow have created a standard steeped in recency bias on two outlier talents.
Trevor Lawrence is in a much better position to succeed following a disastrous rookie season. A once-generational talent, Lawrence can reclaim a positive career trajectory with a bounce back in year two.
Lawrence led the league in interceptions in 2021, completing just 59.6% of his passes and ending as the QB43 in True Throw Value.
The Jaguars' rookie quarterback had little help from his supporting cast as his wide receivers led the NFL with 43 dropped passes last season.
Capable weapons surround the former first overall pick at every position. Although none of his receivers are considered elite talents, this offense is a noticeable upgrade from the previous year.
Lawrence’s ceiling as a fantasy asset is in the range of a high-end QB2 should all the chips fall into place. He will need an astronomical increase in touchdown production to break through the top-12 options in his sophomore season—an unlikely scenario, considering the projections of the Jaguars' offense.
Wide Receivers
The Jaguars ADP does not reflect a sophomore bump from Lawrence. Christian Kirk ADP: WR45, Marvin Jones ADP: WR 70, Zay Jones ADP: WR103, Trevor Lawrence ADP: QB18.
Christian Kirk effectively destroyed the wide receiver free agent market this offseason, signing a four-year 72M dollar contract with 37M guaranteed and up to 84M in incentives.
Kirk is coming off the best season of his career in his fourth year as a pro. 2021 marked the first season Kirk finished as a top 30 wide receiver overall. He finished as the WR30 and WR35 in PPG.
Kirk earned 103 targets in 2021 as a member of the Cardinals, catching passes from the consistently effective delivery of Kyler Murray. A downgrade in target value could severely diminish Kirk’s fantasy ceiling.
Laviska Shenault is a terrifying example of what to expect from the Jaguars' receivers if Lawrence does not progress. Shenault quietly earned 99 targets last season, just four shy of Kirk’s total, and finished as WR58.
Running Backs
Many managers quickly forget that Travis Etienne was once considered the RB1 of his draft class ahead of talents such as Najee Harris and Javonte Williams.
Etienne is one of only six running backs in the NFL NextGen scouting era to record a perfect 99.0 scouting grade as an elite prospect.
The second-year back possesses one of the all-time receiving profiles during his collegiate run with Lawrence at Clemson.
Etienne’s RB23 ADP is quickly skyrocketing into the early rounds of your fantasy drafts. His current cost does not come without risk despite his phenomenal athletic profile and past production.
The Jaguars' offense projects to be one of the worst in the league in 2022, and Etienne is coming off a catastrophic lisfranc injury that ended his rookie season before it began.
James Robinson is returning from an achilles tear in 2021 and is opening up the offseason on the PUP list. The former undrafted free agent and rookie sensation will likely require several weeks, if not the entire season, to get back to game speed.
With an ADP of RB38, you are better off selecting someone other than James Robinson in the 10th/11th rounds of your fantasy drafts.
Tight Ends
If you are punting the tight end position in your upcoming drafts and are looking for a late-round flier with upside, consider Evan Engram with an ADP of TE22.
The entire Jaguars offense will rely on Trevor Lawrence’s second-year breakout. If Lawrence fails, none of the options will be fantasy relevant.
Bold Predictions
Travis Etienne finishes as an RB1 in 2022.
Trevor Lawrence finishes outside of the top 20 quarterbacks in PPG.
Touro Times
Offensive Outlook
Texans' new head coach Lovie Smith is no stranger to the NFL. Smith has served two separate tenures as a head coach in the NFL, accumulating 11 total years of experience. (Bears 2004-2012, Buccaneers 2014-2015).
Pep Hamilton joins Smith as the Texans offensive coordinator in 2022. Hamilton has had a historic career as an NFL coach and staffer with over 25 years of football experience.
Smith and Hamilton were on staff with the Texans in 2021 as the defensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
The Texans were 30th in scoring offense last season.
Notable Additions on Offense: RB Dare Ogunbowale, RB Marlon Mack, Rookie G Kenyon Green, Rookie WR John Metchie, Rookie RB Dameon Pierce.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: QB Deshaun Watson, QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Danny Amendola, RB David Johnson, TE Jordin Akins
Quarterbacks
Davis Mills showed flashes as a rookie but will do little to help your fantasy rosters. He should be viewed as a bye-week replacement at best.
Running Backs
Marlon Mack (ADP: RB53), Rex Burkhead (ADP: RB66), and Dameon Pierce (ADP: RB45) will share backfield duties throughout the 2022 season.
Pierce will have an opportunity to take over as the starter in a shallow backfield.
The fourth-round pick out of Florida is a mid-tier running back prospect. Pierce has never rushed for more than 600 yards in a single season during his collegiate career.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks finished as the WR22 in PPG (14.5) in 2021. Cooks enters the 2022 season with a WR26 ADP.
Cooks performed above expected in 2021 despite some mediocre performances from his quarterbacks. He finished with a B+ True Player Grade.
Nico Collins is the number two option on a rebuilding offense that projects to be in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring in 2022. His fantasy ceiling will be limited as long as Cooks is in the lineup.
Tight Ends
The Texans 2021 fifth-round pick Brevin Jordan played only nine games in his rookie season, catching 20 of 28 targets for 178 yards and three touchdowns
Jordan tops the Texans depth chart but has little relevance for fantasy purposes outside of best ball formats.
Bold Predictions
None of the Texans' running backs will break 100 rushing yards in a single game this season.
Every member of the Texans offense finishes outside of the 24 players at their position in PPG.
Brandin Cooks is outside the top 30 wide receivers in PPG.
StampedeBlue.com
Offensive Outlook
Frank Reich and Marcus Brady are in their second-shared season as the head coach and offensive coordinator of the Colts.
The Colts ranked ninth in scoring in 2021, with 49.0% of their play calls resulting in a rush attempt.
Notable Additions on Offense: QB Matt Ryan, QB Nick Foles, RB Philip Lindsay, T Dennis Kelly, Rookie WR Alec Pierce, Rookie T Bernard Raimann, Rookie TE Jelani Woods.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: T Eric Fisher, WR Zach Pascal, WR T.Y. Hilton, G Mark Glowinski.
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan averaged just 13.4 PPG in a high-paced Falcons offense forced to throw often while playing from behind in 2021.
Increased throwing opportunities usually equates to productive fantasy seasons. However, Ryan was not nearly as efficient in years past, evident by his 23rd-ranked True Throw Value rating of 0.540.
Ryan’s 20 passing touchdowns in 2021 marked the lowest total of his career since his rookie season.
The long-time Falcons veteran ranked 38th in average target depth with a 47.8% deep completion rating.
Nevertheless, Ryan is an upgrade from Carson Wentz for the Colts' offensive weapons for fantasy purposes due to pure accuracy alone.
Ryan is a mid-range QB2 with weekly low-end QB1 upside.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman’s redraft ADP of WR13 reflects his ceiling rather than a median range of outcomes.
Pittman concluded the 2021 season as the WR18 overall but WR27 in PPG, finishing outside the top 36 wide receivers in seven of his 16 games and underperforming his True Target Value of WR25.
Pittman was not as efficient in his rookie season with increased volume as a sophomore. The soon-to-be third-year wideout earned 129 targets in 2021 with a top-10 target share of 24.8%.
Rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce has an ADP of WR65 and is expected to battle for the number two pass-catching role alongside Pittman.
Pierce is a second-round pick out of Cincinnati with impressive athleticism, running a 4.41s 40-yard dash at 6’3”/208 lbs.
Pierce’s best season in college came in his fourth year as a senior, where he caught 52 passes for 884 yards and eight touchdowns during the team’s Cinderella run in 2021.
Pierce is a late-round pick with upside in his first season.
The oft-injured Parris Campbell is garnering preseason hype leading into the 2022 season. Campbell has missed more games than he has played in his NFL career and is likely third in the receiver rotation behind Pierce.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor is entering the 2022 season fresh off the heels of an RB1 overall finish in 2021. Taylor’s ADP of 1.01 overall reflects an expectancy for a rare occurrence of a repeat performance.
Taylor was better than average as a pass-catcher in 2021, recording 40 receptions for 360 receiving yards and two touchdowns. His 51 targets registered a 9.8% target share, ranked 12th amongst running backs.
Taylor’s 332 rushing attempts led the NFL, as did his 1811 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns.
Taylor’s league-leading 564 cumulative rushing yards over expected (RYOE) in 2021 was 196 yards ahead of the runner-up (Nick Chubb). The Colts' stud running back ranked second in RYOE/ATT.
Still, Taylor lacks the PPG upside of a healthy Christian McCaffrey. In fact, Taylor ranked behind Derrick Henry last season in PPG.
Nyheim Hines is expected to reprise his role as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield in 2022 and will benefit from Matt Ryan’s career QB-RB target rate of 7.3 per game.
However, Hines's target share has been on the decline throughout Taylor's ascent.
Hines ADP of RB43 is at a low enough cost to warrant an investment.
Tight Ends
Mo Alie-Cox will have the opportunity to serve as the Colts' starting Tight End now that Jack Doyle has announced his retirement.
Alie-Cox enters his sixth season and is familiar with the offensive system.
He is an incredible athlete at 6’5”, 267 lbs and has flashed upside throughout his career with several spike weeks of fantasy production.
Inconsistency will always be the downfall when attempting to manage a boom-or-bust tight end like Alie-Cox.
If Ali-Cox misses time or fails to produce, managers should keep an eye on Jelani Woods.
Woods is the most athletic tight end in the history of the NFL Combine, with a perfect relative athletic score (RAS) of 10.00, ranking 1st of 1087 tight ends tested between 1987 and 2022.
Bold Predictions
2022 will be Matt Ryan’s last season as a starter in the NFL.
Michael Pittman ends outside of the top-24 wide receivers in PPG.
Jelani Woods scores 5(+) touchdowns in 2022.
Getty Images
Offensive Outlook
Mike Vrabel enters his fifth season as the head coach for the Titans and has never finished with a record below .500.
Todd Downing remains the offensive coordinator for the second season after taking over for Arthur Smith in 2021.
The Titans ran the ball on 51% of their offensive plays last season, ranked second in the NFL despite losing Derrick Henry to injury mid-season. The team finished 15th in scoring.
Notable Additions on Offense: WR Robert Woods, TE Austin Hooper, Rookie WR Treylon Burks, Rookie WR Kyle Philips.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: WR A.J. Brown, WR Julio Jones, RB Darrynton Evans, TE Anthony Firkser, RB D’Onta Foreman.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill has fallen from grace as the Broto Fantasy “True Value King.” Tannehill ranked 29th in True Throw Value in 2021, a drastic drop from his consecutive top-five True Value rankings.
Tannehill finished the season with a D- True Player composite grade, the lowest grade of his tenure with the Titans.
One underrated aspect of the ten-year pro’s game is his propensity for rushing touchdowns. Tannehill recorded seven rushing touchdowns in 2021, second amongst quarterbacks behind Jalen Hurts.
If Tannehill can positively regress to his career norms as a True Throw Value stud, he can certainly pay off at his late-round ADP.
Wide Receivers
Treylon Burks steps into the A.J. Brown role after the Titans traded their star receiver to the Eagles on draft night only to immediately replace him with a near-identical prospect.
Offseason reports suggest that Robert Woods has fully recovered from his ACL tear in 2021 and is prepared to take on a sizable opportunity share as the Titans' outside receiver.
Burks’ ADP reflects higher confidence in the unknown. Burks is 11 spots higher than Woods at WR33 and WR44, respectively.
Woods had a quietly impressive season alongside Cooper Kupp for the Rams in 2021. The 30-year-old wide receiver maintained a 21.4% target share and 15.2 PPG (WR16).
Even at his veteran age, Woods averaged over 2.00 yards of separation per target in 2021.
Burks is not a surefire producer in his rookie season. The first-round pick compares favorably to N’Keal Harry, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Jordan Matthews, and Alshon Jeffrey. Seeing Harry as Burks’ closest comparison in the Broto Fantasy Player Comps does little to instill confidence in immediate success.
Tight Ends
Austin Hooper has had a mid-career drought after an early breakout. Since 2010 only eight tight ends have secured at least 298 receptions, 3000 yards and 20 touchdowns in their first 88 games. Those tight ends include Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, Zach Ertz, Eric Ebron, Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, Jordan Reed, and Austin Hooper.
The Titans consistently utilize the end position in their passing offense.
Hooper can well outperform his TE20 ADP in an offense in desperate need of capable pass-catchers.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry is a monster of a man that has consistently progressed throughout his career as a fantasy football force.
Returning from a broken foot in 2022, Henry’s ability to maintain his ridiculous work rate throughout the past two seasons is in question.
We have never witnessed a running back maintain an opportunity rate like Henry’s from year to year without fault. His 27.3 rush attempts per game ranked first in the league in 2021 and was a higher margin than his 371 attempt total from 2020.
His first-round ADP presents more risk than most are willing to admit.
Hassan Haskins is a good handcuff player if Henry misses games.
Bold Predictions
Robert Woods finishes as a top-24 wide receiver in PPG.
Derrick Henry finishes outside of the top-15 running back in PPG.
Austin Hooper ends up a top-8 tight end in 2022.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.