The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2022. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the NFC South, bringing you quick-hitting bullets that summarize everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Offensive Outlook
Todd Bowles steps in as the Buccaneers’ new head coach in 2022 after serving as the team’s defensive coordinator in years past.
Former head coach Bruce Arians was promoted to a front office management role within the organization amidst rumored tensions with star quarterback Tom Brady.
Byron Leftwich stays put as the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers and has previously coached under Arians in some fashion for his entire coaching career.
The Buccaneers ranked 2nd in points per game last season while leading the NFL in passing rate, averaging a pass attempt on 65.5% of the offensive plays.
The offensive line for the Buccaneers has made steady improvements throughout Brady’s two-year tenure and now ranks 4th overall entering the 2022 season, according to PFF.
Notable Additions on Offense: WR Julio Jones, WR Russell Gage, TE Kyle Rudolph, G Shaq Mason, Rookie RB Rachaad White, Rookie TE Cade Otton.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: TE Rob Gronkowski, G Ali Marpet, RB Ronald Jones, WR Antonio Brown.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady ranked 3rd in PPG in 2021, leading the league in pass attempts (719), passing yards (5316), and passing touchdowns (43).
Managers concerned with Brady’s decline silently ignore that his 5316 passing yards in 2021 marked a new career high for the 45-year-old quarterback.
The greatest quarterback to ever play the game proved that age is just a number by leading the league in deep ball attempts and air yards in his 22nd season.
Brady’s pseudo retirement in the offseason can be ignored as we know the announcement was made to leverage his way onto the Dolphins in the act of collusion that resulted in several fines and loss of draft picks.
Brady’s ADP of 81st overall (QB9) is scintillating for a player that has finished below QB12 in PPG only five times in an illustrious 22-year career.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans should see an increase in red zone targets sans Rob Gronkowski, a promising outlook for a player that ranked 2nd in receiving touchdowns (14) in 2022.
Evans finished the 2021 season averaging 16.4 PPG (WR10) yet earned a career-low target share of 16.4%, ranked 58th.
Managers can expect the veteran wideout to regress towards his career norm of >25.0% target share but likely a slight decrease in touchdowns in 2022.
Evans has never finished below WR24 in PPG in his career.
A first-round pick in 2014, Evans is the first receiver to record eight consecutive 1000-yard seasons in the first eight years of their career.
Evans is a near-lock to secure another 1000-yard season with double-digit touchdowns in 2022.
Two seasons ago, Chris Godwin ranked WR2 in PPG but had some inconsistencies, following his peak season with a WR15 PPG finish and WR7 PPG finish in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
Godwin matched his True Target Value as WR7 with 17.3 PPG.
Godwin’s injury discount is baked into his ADP of WR24 (61st overall) despite reportedly being on pace to play in Week 1 of 2022. However, he will likely need several weeks to acclimate to his previous elite form as the Buccaneers' leader in targets.
The Buccaneers signed veteran wide receiver Julio Jones to fill the Antonio Brown role.
Jones has been plagued with injuries over the last several seasons, playing in just ten games in 2021, where he recorded a mere 31 receptions for 434 yards and one touchdown.
Managers are beginning to write off the future Hall of Fame receiver as a washed-up asset in his age-33 season. However, managers should not be so quick to fade the veteran wideout, considering his cost.
There are only 14 receivers ahead of Jones in total career receiving yards on the NFL’s all-time list. It is worth noting that you find incredible fantasy production throughout those names when looking back on those receivers and their age-33 season.
Notable Age 33 Seasons From Wide Receivers with at least 11,935 career receiving yards: Jerry Rice (24.8 PPG), Larry Fitzgerald (15.3 PPG), Terrell Owens (17.6), Tim Brown (16.3 PPG), Marvin Harrison (17.9 PPG), Steve Smith (13.4 PPG).
The Buccaneers also added Russell Gage from the Falcons to the receiver rotation.
Gage surprisingly recorded a higher target share (22.0%) and target rate (26.4%) than any active roster member last season.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette finished the 2021 season with 18.3 (RB3) with a True Player Grade of 93.6 (A Grade), ranked fourth in the NFL.
Fournette is currently valued as a late-second/early-third round draft pick in 2022 (RB14/25th Overall).
Fournette’s rushing rate was diminished from his previous workloads as the Jaguars' three-down workhorse. The veteran back recorded just 180 rushing attempts for 811 rushing yards in 2021.
The Buccaneers utilized Fournette as the primary pass-catcher during a season where all three of their top wideouts dealt with injuries. He recorded 84 targets with 69 receptions and a 14.0% target share.
However, Fournette was incredibly mediocre with his efficiency, ranking 18th in RYOE, 18th in Yards Per Touch, 18th in Yards Per Route Run, and 24th in Yards Per Reception.
Fournette is being drafted at his ceiling as a low-end RB1 in 2022.
Rookie running back Rachaad White presents serious competition to Fournette’s target total.
White was the first player in Arizona State history to lead the team in rushing and receiving yards per game in a single season.
Unfortunately, White’s historic run as a dual-threat was ended due to a Covid-19 shortened season, but he still managed to lead the Pac-12 conference in Yards Per Carry and Yards Per Reception.
White profiles like a supercharged James White with better athleticism. In his final season at Arizona State, White recorded 1006 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, needing only 182 carries to accomplish the feat.
The Buccaneers rookie exhibited incredible pass-catching in college, catching 43 passes for 456 yards in his final season before declaring for the 2022 NFL Draft.
White’s ADP of RB54 (166th overall) is ludicrous, considering players like Mark Ingram, J.D. McKissic, Jamaal Williams, fellow rookie Tyler Allgeier and Bengals kicker Evan McPherson are being drafted in front of him.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski announced his retirement from the NFL this offseason and appeared to be holding true to that statement thus far.
The Buccaneers' depth chart hosts a tight end trio of irrelevant names, with Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Brate, and fifth-round rookie Cade Otton rounding out the list.
Brate and Rudolph will battle for the starting role while Otton develops his skill set to be the potential starter of the future.
Neither option presents enough upside to be worth a draft pick in 2022.
Bold Predictions
Rob Gronkowski returns to action before Week 8 of the 2022 season.
Rachaad White scores more PPG than Leonard Fournette.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Offensive Outlook
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith and offensive coordinator Dave Ragone enter their second season as the team moves through a significant rebuilding process.
In 2021 the Falcons ranked 26th in scoring, passing the ball on 59.3% of their offensive plays.
PFF ranks the Falcons' offensive line near the bottom of the league, settling in at 28th to begin the 2022 season.
Notable Additions on Offense: QB Marcus Mariota, WR Damiere Byrd, WR Bryan Edwards, WR Auden Tate, Rookie WR Drake London, Rookie RB Tyler Allgeier, Rookie QB Desmond Ridder.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: QB Matt Ryan, RB Mike Davis, WR Russell Gage, WR Tajae Sharpe, TE Hayden Hurst.
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota looks to be the Falcons' Week 1 starter but could eventually lose his role to rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder.
Both quarterbacks present above-average athleticism and rushing upside but have erratic deliveries in the passing game.
Neither quarterback should be rostered outside leagues where you must start two quarterbacks.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts is the most meaningful asset on the Falcons offense and is being drafted as the TE3 (28th overall) in 2022.
Pitts is an expensive asset at the tight end position. However, the second-year sensation is a generational talent that breaks the mold of what it means to be a traditional tight end.
Pitts is more of a hybrid wideout/slot receiver, and managers should be comfortable projecting his 2022 season totals to reflect that role.
Pitts shattered all thresholds for rookie tight end production, exceeding even the highest bar for what we can expect from rookie wide receivers.
In his first season, the Falcons' first-round selection recorded 68 receptions on 110 targets for 1026 receiving yards.
Pitts finished as TE11 in PPG (10.4) despite catching only one touchdown in his rookie year.
Managers can expect a massive leap in touchdown production and peripheral stats for Pitts in his second season.
Wide Receivers
Drake London is in line for a massive opportunity share in his rookie season, with the Falcons housing one of the worst defensive units in the NFL.
The Falcons will be in come-from-behind mode throughout the 2022 season as teams run the gauntlet on their bottoming defense.
London may struggle with the quality of targets he receives from whoever starts at quarterback, whether it be Mariota or Ridder.
London is still a value at cost. He enters the 2022 season with an ADP of WR38 (95th Overall). The Falcons rookie receiver falls into a bucket of phenomenal player comparisons.
London is an early declare (3 years of college) with alpha size (>6’2, 200 lbs) and a top-10 NFL Draft Pick (8th overall in 2022), comparing favorably to Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree. Every player named performed within the top 24 WRs in PPG in their rookie seasons.
Bryan Edwards, Auden Tate, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Geronimo Allison round out the depth chart. None of those receivers warrant consideration in fantasy leagues this season.
Running Backs
Cordarrelle Patterson finally broke out in his eighth season in the NFL, finishing as the RB16 in PPG (14.7) in 2021.
Patterson shared the backfield with Mike Davis last season and is now the unquestioned leader with rookie Tyler Allgeier in the backup role.
The dual-threat veteran is currently valued as the RB34 in 2022 and should easily outperform his ADP.
Patterson is an excellent pass-catcher and will be utilized similarly to his 2021 season with the Falcons offense playing from behind.
Patterson recorded 52 receptions for 548 yards while rushing for 618 yards on 153 attempts and 11 total touchdowns.
Scoring regression is likely for the Falcons lead back as he managed those 11 touchdowns on the 28th scoring offense, vastly outperforming his predicted total.
Patterson fell off a cliff to end the 2021 season, averaging just 5.5 PPG over the final four weeks.
2022 marks rookie Tyler Allgeier’s first full season playing the running back position in his football career. The former BYU prospect continuously switched from linebacker to running back throughout his collegiate career.
Allgeier dominated a lesser conference in his final season while at BYU, rushing for over 75% of the team’s total scoring output with a mind-boggling 23 touchdowns with 1601 rushing yards.
Nevertheless, Allgeier is merely a goal line running back stuck on an offense that projects to be one of the lowest scoring teams in 2022.
Bold Predictions
Desmond Ridder is the Falcons' starting quarterback by Week 4 of the 2022 season.
Kyle Pitts finishes as the TE1 overall in PPG.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Offensive Outlook
The Saints' longtime defensive coordinator Dennis Allen replaces former head coach Sean Payton as the team’s leader on the sidelines.
The organization is attempting to keep Payton’s winning culture alive after promoting Allen and re-signing offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael who has spent the last 13 seasons with the franchise.
The Saints finished the 2021 season riddled with injuries, ranking 19th in offensive scoring. The offense was forced to slow down the pace amidst said injuries, rushing the ball on 50.3% of their offensive plays, ranked 3rd in the league.
PFF has the Saints' offensive line taking a step back in 2022 after losing several key players, ranking the team’s front unit 21st in the NFL to start the season.
Notable Additions on Offense: QB Andy Dalton, WR Jarvis Landry, TE Chris Herndon, Rookie WR Chris Olave, Rookie T Trevor Penning, Rookie RB Abram Smith.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: T Terron Armstead, WR Kenny Stills, RB Ty Montgomery.
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston is the unquestioned starter entering the 2022 season but is coming off a significant knee injury that ended his 2021 season in Week 8.
During those seven weeks of healthy play, Winston ranked in the top-6 quarterbacks twice (QB3, QB6) but also fell outside of the top 24 quarterbacks on three separate occasions (QB25, QB26, QB25).
Winston threw for less than 150 passing yards in four of his seven starts.
The veteran gunslinger’s best fantasy performance came in Week 1 of the 2021 season, where he tossed five touchdowns against the Packers on only 148 yards passing.
Winston is a volatile asset with an extremely high upside and a terrifyingly low floor. However, Winston could outperform his current ADP with the Saints' revamped wide receiver room at his disposal.
Wide Receivers
MT is BACK! After missing almost two seasons to injury, all reports suggest Michael Thomas is healthy and looking better than ever.
The single-season reception king has never finished below the WR1 tier in any season of his professional career.
Thomas’ lowest PPG finish before his injury was WR7 which happened in his rookie season. He followed up his rookie breakout by finishing as the WR4, WR6, and WR1 in PPG the following three seasons.
The six-year veteran has never had a season where his PPG ranked below his True Target Value, consistently outperforming or matching his expected PPG total.
The number one receiving option on the offense has a rapidly rising ADP of WR30 (79th Overall) but remains one of the best values of the 2022 season.
Rookie wide receiver Chris Olave is backed by the confidence of the entire organization as the Saints traded three first-round draft picks for the rights to select the Ohio State prospect 11th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Olave’s ceiling as a rookie is likely similar to that of DeVonta Smith in 2021(65/900/5/WR36 PPG).
The Saints' first-round wideout has an impressive collegiate profile of production, earning a 26.0% target share at Ohio State while competing for playing time against a multitude of former and future first-round draft picks like Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Emeka Egbuka. Not to mention current NFL star Terry McLaurin as well.
Olave’s path to meaningful targets may be difficult with Thomas looking healthy and the recent signing of another capable veteran receiver in Jarvis Landry.
Landry is coming off a quietly impressive season as the Brown’s leader in targets. The former pro-bowler averaged 24.7% (18th) target share and 28.0% target rate (8th).
Landry finished the 2021 season with 11.1 PPG (WR34) and has the lowest ADP of the three options at WR54.
The Saints' weapons at wide receiver are valued at their floor rather than a median range of outcomes. This value discrepancy offers managers an excellent opportunity to capitalize on this rising offense.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara was facing a potential suspension from an altercation during Pro Bowl weekend in Las Vegas last season. According to Adam Schefter, it appears Kamara will avoid serious suspension.
Kamara’s low ADP of RB10 overall reflects a presumption of missed games. He is a smash value at any position on your draft boards and possesses RB1 overall upside.
The Saints' dual-threat running back averaged an elite 18.8% target share in 2021, finishing as the RB6 in PPG due to his unmatched receiving skills.
Mark Ingram is severely regressing in his later seasons. The 33-year-old running back averaged just 3.5 yards per carry in 2021, rushing for 554 on 160 rushing attempts.
Ingram ended the 2021 season averaging just 7.3 PPG, ranked RB43.
Rookie Running Back Abram Smith is an intriguing name to put on your watchlists post-draft.
The Saints signed Smith to the largest undrafted rookie free agent contract in NFL history following the 2022 NFL Draft.
The former Baylor back is a three-down bruiser that can fit a similar role to the aging and declining Ingram.
Smith rushed for 1601 yards on 257 carries for 12 touchdowns in his final season at Baylor.
Smith oscillated between linebacker and running back, racking up an insane 48 solo tackles in a five-game span during his sophomore season.
Broto Player Comps has Smith favorably compared to other successful between-the-tackles runners such as Jordan Howard, Jamaal Williams, and D’onta Foreman.
Tight Ends
The Saints have Taysom Hill listed as a tight end but are planning to reprise the gadget player’s role as a positionless weapon on specialized plays.
Adam Trautman leads the tight end depth chart beyond Hill and has shown little progression in his first two seasons.
The Saints have several valuable fantasy assets on the roster in 2022, but the tight end position should be avoided.
Bold Predictions
Jarvis Landry ends with more fantasy points than Michael Thomas in 2022.
Alvin Kamara finishes 2022 in the top-3 in both rushing and receiving yards amongst running backs.
Abram Smith has more rushing yards than Mark Ingram by the end of the season.
Jameis Winston is a top-10 QB in 2022.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Offensive Outlook
Matt Rhule remains the head coach for his third season but is on the hot seat in 2022 and will need to perform above expectations to retain his job.
Rhule has just ten wins over the last two seasons.
Former offensive coordinator Joe Brady was fired mid-season in 2021, ultimately being replaced by Ben McAdoo for 2022.
The last time McAdoo had an NFL job was in 2017 when the Giants rightfully fired him after driving the team into the basement of the NFC East.
The Panthers ranked 29th in offensive scoring in 2021.
The team’s offensive line is ranked 24th entering the 2022 season, per PFF. A slight improvement from last season but still amongst the worst in the NFL.
Notable Additions on Offense: QB Baker Mayfield, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Rashard Higgins, Rookie T Ickey Ekonwu, Rookie QB Matt Corral.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: RB Ameer Abdullah, C Matt Paradis, QB Cam Newton.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield has won the starting role over Sam Darnold and will begin the 2022 season as the Panthers' lead signal-caller.
Mayfield should be viewed as a bye-week replacement and will likely go undrafted in most leagues with an ADP of QB26.
Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore is where the list of rosterable wide receivers on the Panthers' offense starts and finishes.
Moore is a fan favorite for his ability to continuously conduct respectable performances while catching passes from some of the NFL’s lowliest quarterback talent.
The Panthers' star receiver has never finished above WR14 in PPG, even though he has performed above his True Target Value every season.
Moore has shown an elite ability to earn targets throughout his career and desperately needs a quarterback upgrade.
In 2021 the star receiver finished 5th in target share (28.4%), 11th in target rate (28.3%), and 5th in air yards share (39.9%). Unfortunately, he could only muster 14.0 PPG (WR23) with his elite opportunity share.
A glaring positive in Moore’s analytic profile is his knack for destroying his predicted points total, evident by his 59th ranked True Target Value and WR23 in PPG.
Moore ranked 2nd behind only Justin Jefferson in True Air Yards and first in Unrealized True Air Yards.
Moore is being drafted as WR15 (42nd Overall) in 2022 and will need a gigantic leap of efficiency from his quarterback to meet that ceiling.
There is no other wide receiver on this Panthers offense worth mentioning for fantasy purposes.
Running Backs
There are few assets in the history of fantasy football that have a higher ceiling than a healthy Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey has missed 24 games over the last two seasons but has flashed elite upside in every game of his career.
In 2020, McCaffrey dealt with several lower body and shoulder injuries yet maintained 30.1 PPG across three contests.
In 2021, the same injuries would cause significant problems, with the Panthers star missing ten games. McCaffrey still managed 18.2 PPG in every contest and an 18.6% target share on one of the NFL’s worst offenses.
McCaffrey has a more significant advantage in PPR formats but will be selected within the first two picks of fantasy drafts due to his incredible history of game-breaking production.
Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman have minimal upside as handcuffs as they will likely serve in a committee if McCaffrey misses games.
Tight Ends
Tommy Tremble is the starting tight end for the Panthers and is a pseudo-full back with limited receiving upside. You can avoid the tight ends on this team.
Bold Predictions
Sam Darnold will replace Baker Mayfield as the starter by the end of the 2022 season.
Baker Mayfield finishes 2022 as a top-20 QB in PPG.
D.J. Moore scores more than four touchdowns and finishes inside the top-12 WR in PPG.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.