The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2022. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the NFC East, bringing you quick-hitting bullets that summarize everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Offensive Outlook
Former Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll takes over the head coaching gig for the Giants.
Mike Kafka slots in as the new offensive coordinator in 2022 after serving as the passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach for the Bengals.
The Giants ranked 31st in offensive scoring in 2021. The coaching staff may have changed, but the Giants' depth chart remains relatively similar to last season.
PFF ranks the Giants' offensive line 18th entering the 2022 season, a slight improvement from 2021.
The Giants roster was so pitiful last season that 24 members of their active 2021 roster are no longer in the NFL.
Notable Additions on Offense: QB Tyrod Taylor, G Mark Glowinski, RB Matt Breida, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, TE Jordan Akins, Rookie G Evan Neal, Rookie WR Wan’Dale Robinson, Rookie TE Daniel Bellinger.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: TE Evan Engram, TE Kyle Rudolph, RB Devontae Booker, WR John Ross, WR Dante Pettis.
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones' ADP of QB24 is reflective of his dreadful 2021 season rather than a median range of outcomes based on his career of work.
Jones only had one weekly finish below the QB3 tier last season.
The Giants have surrounded their young quarterback with the best weapons and coaching staff of his chaotic career. Jones has a solid floor as a QB2 with weekly upside.
Running Backs
When Saquon Barkley is healthy, he is a league-winning asset with incredible rushing efficiency and receiving prowess.
Barkley recorded 57 targets while playing in only 12 games in 2021. Barkley earned a 13.8% target share, ranked 8th amongst running backs.
The do-it-all running back will be heavily leaned on in 2022 as the Giants leading rusher and primary receiving threat on a team in desperate need of pass-catching talent.
One notable concern outside of injury for Barkley is his head coach's offensive scheme. Brian Daboll has never supported a fantasy-relevant RB1 on any offenses throughout his NFL tenure. However, he has never had a talent like Barkley on his offense, either.
Barkley’s injuries are cause for concern, but his ceiling as an RB1 is indisputable.
Wide Receivers
Kenny Golladay’s big contract appears to be wasted money for the Giants as the veteran receiver posted a 57th-rated target share of 16.6% last season.
Golladay played in 14 games in 2021, recording 37 catches on 74 targets for 521 yards and zero touchdowns.
The Giants may look to develop their rookie receivers as quickly as possible to supplement the loss production of their aging receiver.
Nevertheless, Golladay’s ADP of WR74 is well below his ceiling as the number one receiver on the Giants' offense.
Sterling Shephard is coming off a season-ending achilles injury in the 2021 season and may not have a role once he returns.
Kadarius Toney is primed for a second-year breakout after excelling in several predictive metrics as a rookie.
Toney ranked 7th in target rate in 2021, earning a target on 28.9% of his routes run.
The former first-round pick averaged 2.17 yards per route run in 2021, ranked 17th.
Tight Ends
Managers should not invest their upcoming draft picks on tight ends from the Giants roster.
Bold Predictions
Saquon Barkley is a top-6 running back in 2022.
Kenny Golladay has a career resurgence ala Melvin Gordon.
Daniel Jones finishes as the QB11 overall.
Daniel Jones leads all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns in 2022.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Offensive Outlook
Nick Sirianni remains the head coach for his second season with the Eagles. Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen once again joins him on the sidelines.
The Eagles ranked 12th in points per game in 2021, leading the league in run percentage.
The Eagles enter the 2022 season ranked first in offensive line ratings, per PFF.
Notable Additions on Offense: WR A.J. Brown, WR Zach Pascal, Rookie C Cam Jergens, Rookie RB Kennedy Brooks.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: RB Jordan Howard.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts recorded more weekly QB1 finishes than any other quarterback in 2021.
In his first full season as a starter, Hurts finished 5th in PPG, leading all quarterbacks in rushing attempts (140), rushing yards (782), and rushing touchdowns (10).
Hurts’ issue resides in his throwing ability. He finished 32nd in True Throw Value in 2021.
The rushing sensation had a season of two halves in 2021, finishing as a top-5 fantasy quarterback in five of the first eight weeks. Hurts had just three finishes as a top-6 option in the final eight weeks of the season.
His late-round ADP at QB9 offers excellent value due to Hurts’ rushing ability and improved offense entering 2022.
Running Backs
Miles Sanders' best season came as a rookie, wherein he was RB21 in PPG (13.5) while rushing for just 818 yards on 179 carries despite playing every game.
Sanders' once promising profile as a receiver out of the backfield appears far removed from his 50 reception 509-yard season in his first year.
In his second season, the former Penn State product played in just 12 games, rushing for 867 yards on 164 attempts, upping his efficiency from the prior season but regressing as a receiver with just 28 receptions for 197 yards.
In 2021, Sanders regressed further as a pass-catching threat, recording just 26 receptions for 158 yards.
He continues to be efficient as a rusher, ranking top-5 in RYOE/ATT but does not receive the workload to turn his efficiency into relative fantasy production.
It is discouraging to note that the Eagles averaged 32.1 rush attempts per game, and Sanders only managed a 50.6% opportunity share.
Kenny Gainwell has more upside than Sanders, especially considering their differing ADPs.
Gainwell recorded more weeks of RB1 production in 2021 than Sanders. Gainwell managed four weeks in the top-12 scorers at the position.
The Eagles rookie running back managed massive scoring output with minimal opportunity, recording less than 30% of the total offensive snaps in 2021.
Gainwell had an unpredictably high number of touchdowns last season yet still managed to score 0.636 PPOxTD, ranking 6th amongst all running backs with more than 120 opportunities in 2021.
The first-year back ranked 11th in yards per route run (1.73) and seventh in fantasy points per opportunity (1.35).
Gainwell does not need the volume that Sanders does to be fantasy relevant.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert’s ADP of TE8 is directly in line with his PPG finish in 2021.
Goedert vastly outperformed his True Target Value of 24th last season.
The Eagles veteran excelled after Zach Ertz was traded to the Cardinals, finishing in the top-10 in nearly every metric at the tight end position.
Goedert is a safe pick but presents minimal upside, with the other options commanding the majority of targets.
Wide Receivers
All transactions made by the Eagles this offseason indicate a more pass-centric offense in 2022.
A.J. Brown maintained incredible production amidst Tannehill’s fall from the True Throw Value rankings in 2021. His position on a new offense should not concern managers this season.
DeVonta Smith is being slept on as a viable WR2 after a respectable rookie season with 64 receptions on 103 targets for 916 and five touchdowns.
Smith’s 14.4-yard aDOT showcased an elite ability to separate at all field levels even with the erratic delivery of Hurts.
Smith hit all necessary thresholds as a rookie, aligning him for a sophomore boom in 2022.
He recorded 38.9% of his team’s air yards (6th), 2.16 yards per route run (15th), 8.9 yards per target (25th), 14.3 yards per reception (24th), and 1.85 yards per team pass attempt (15th) in 2021.
The remaining wide receivers on this offense are merely an afterthought.
Bold Predictions
Jalen Hurts finishes as the QB1 overall in 2022.
A.J. Brown earns a career-high in targets with 150(+)
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith finish in the WR2 tier this season.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Offensive Outlook
Head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner enter their third season together as the respective play-callers on the offense.
In 2021 the Commanders ranked 23rd in points per game, running the ball at a top-10 rate of 46.0%.
Entering 2022, PFF has the offensive line ranked 15th in the NFL.
Notable Additions on Offense: QB Carson Wentz, G Andrew Norwell, G Tre Turner, Rookie WR Jahan Dotson, Rookie RB Brian Robinson, Rookie QB Sam Howell.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: G Brandon Scherff, G Eric Flowers, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB Kyle Allen, WR Adam Humphries, TE Ricky Seals-Jones.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz has finished as a top-12 quarterback in two of his last three seasons. In 2019, Wentz finished as QB10 before being pushed out of the Eagles rotation the following season. In his first season as a starter for the Colts, Wentz finished as QB12.
Wentz is a safe mid-range QB2 capable of QB1 performances but possesses little to no upside as an elite passer or capable rusher.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin’s career has been marred by ineffective quarterback play at every turn. With Wentz in town, there is hope that McLaurin can finally break through as a WR1 in fantasy scoring.
In 2021 McLaurin recorded a 41.8% air yard share with a 24.5% target share but finished with just 12.6 PPG (WR29).
McLaurin has never finished above WR20 in PPG in his three-year career.
Jahan Dotson may ultimately cap McLaurin’s ceiling.
Dotson is a target-hog, entering the NFL with a 96th percentile collegiate target share of 32.5%.
The wide receivers on this offense will need to rely on another highly efficient season from Wentz.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas is coming off multiple knee surgeries after the 2021 season.
Last season Thomas averaged three receptions for 33 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.
Managers can fade Thomas entering the 2022 season.
Running Backs
Managers fear Antonio Gibson’s role on this offense after the team re-signed J.D. McKissic this offseason. The team also drafted Brian Robinson in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
McKissic will vulture pass-catching work from Gibson, as his role as a receiving option is well established.
Robinson, on the other hand, is one of the least productive collegiate running backs in the history of Nick Saban-led offenses at Alabama.
Robinson needed five years at Alabama before gaining opportunities and relevance, requiring over 300 touches to amass his first season with over 1000 yards.
Robinson may see some goal line and short-yardage work but is unlikely to lead this backfield at any point.
Antonio Gibson ranked 4th in rushing attempts with 258 but managed just 1037 yards (4.0 YPC).
Gibson averaged 14.3 PPG (RB17) in 2021, needing ten touchdowns to supplement his mediocre efficiency.
Since 2019 only seven running backs have caught at least 148 passes in the NFL. J.D. McKissic resides amongst elite receiving companies with Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliot, Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, and Austin Ekeler.
McKissic consistently ranks within the top-5 in PPOxTD, proving to be a consistent asset with low volatility. The veteran running back is akin to a WR3 rather than an RB2.
McKissic’s ADP of RB43 offers managers an easy weekly flex play in the later rounds of their fantasy drafts.
Bold Predictions
Carson Wentz, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, J.D McKissic, and Antonio Gibson will outperform ADP in 2022.
J.D McKissic finishes as the number two receiver on the Commanders.
DALLAS COWBOYS
Offensive Outlook
Mike McCarthy enters his third year as the Cowboys' head coach, with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore serving in his fourth season.
In 2021 the Cowboys' offense ranked first in scoring.
PFF has the Cowboys' offensive line ranked 6th overall entering the 2022 season.
Notable Additions on Offense: Tyler Smith, Rookie WR Jalen Tolbert, Rookie TE Jake Ferguson.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: T La’el Collins, WR Amari Cooper, TE Blake Jarwin, WR Cedric Wilson, G Connor Williams, RB Corey Clement.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott has recorded eight or more weeks of QB1 scoring in all six of his seasons as a starter.
Concerns surrounding the Cowboys' franchise quarterback are justifiable as his rushing numbers have declined throughout his career, and he is only one season removed from a gruesome ankle injury.
Prescott is consistently amongst the top-8 QBs in PPG and enters 2022 with an ADP of QB7. He is a safe pick to return value.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliot played through a partially torn PCL in the 2021 season yet still managed a top-10 snap share (65.9%), finishing as the RB6 overall with 14.8 PPG (RB15).
Tony Pollard is amongst the most efficient running backs in the NFL but remains the secondary option to Elliot.
Pollard is easily the most valuable handcuff in fantasy football. He has a clear path to monster volume should Elliot miss time while presenting weekly flex appeal as an uber-efficient home run hitter.
The Cowboys' change-of-pace back ranked first in scrimmage yards over expected amongst all players, with at least 120 touches in 2021.
Both running backs hold stand-alone value, although Pollard has more risk considering his cost.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb stands alone as the primary target for Dak Prescott on the number one scoring offense in the NFL.
There is some negativity surrounding Lamb’s career target share as it has not met the statistical threshold of other alpha receivers.
However, Lamb’s increase in targets after the absence of Amari Cooper will need to be minimal for the third-year receiver to break those thresholds.
Cooper leaves behind 103 targets with an 18.8% target share and a 22.6% target rate on 456 routes. Lamb would need to acquire a menial percentage of Cooper’s total opportunities to lift his 2021 target share of 20.4% (120 targets) to an elite level.
Lamb’s ADP as WR6 is a risky cost, but the talent and opportunity are undeniable. If everything falls in place, the Cowboys' new lead receiver could finish as an atop-five option at the position.
Jalen Tolbert is a small-school phenom from South Alabama with an immediate path to fantasy relevance.
The third-round rookie receiver will immediately slot in as the number-two receiving option as Michael Gallup and James Washington recover from injuries.
Tolbert has a fast track to being a surprise rookie breakout.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz had a stellar year of production in 2021, recording 78 receptions on 104 targets for 808 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Schultz finished the season averaging 12.3 PPG (TE5).
Schultz could increase those numbers in 2022 with the Cowboys' secondary receiving options being a rookie and a running back.
Schultz has a mid-round ADP at TE6 overall and is a safe option to repeat his incredible season as a top-5 tight end.
Bold Predictions
Dalton Schultz is a top-2 tight end in 2022.
Dak Prescott finishes as a top-3 QB in PPG.
CeeDee Lamb WR1 Overall.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.