Welcome to the Broto "Everything You Need to Know About" series. Throughout the offseason, we will deep-dive into players for the 2022 NFL season and examine the good, the bad, and everything in between.
SUBJECT: Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Sports Illustrated
THE GOOD:
In 2021, Kyle Pitts broke onto the NFL stage with one of the greatest rookie seasons ever seen by a tight end—in both real life and in fantasy football. Compiling 1,026 yards on 68 receptions (110 targets), the one knock on the performance put forth by the 21-year-old was the lack of touchdowns produced by Pitts. The rookie tight end hit paydirt just a single time through his 17-game debut.
The lack of scoring didn’t hurt his fantasy production much, however, as Pitts landed as the TE6 in PPR leagues on the season with a grand total of 176.6 points on the year, just 4.1 points shy of TE5 Zach Ertz. Despite being the only TE in NFL history to eclipse 1000 yards while only scoring a single touchdown, Pitts dominated the competition as one of the youngest players on the field in any given week.
Let’s quickly look at some quick-hit numbers to help explain further the season we witnessed from the young Falcon:
Pitts placed 9th in YPC and 11th in YPT among 53 TE’s with over 1000 yards since 1986
Pitts tallied the 7th most receiving yards ever for any player 21 or younger
Pitts’ 1,026 yards placed him 2nd all time among rookie TEs (Mike Ditka)
Pitts’ 176.6 PPR points were the 4th most by a rookie TE in NFL history
Now what if I told you Pitts should have been better?
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In NFL history, there have been 53 instances of a TE tallying more than 1000 yards in a single season, including Pitts’ 2021 season. Over those 53 seasons, these players averaged 7.74 touchdowns, and if we were to narrow it down to the 45 who tallied more than 1010 yards, that number jumps to 8.02 touchdowns. This means that Pitts scored seven fewer touchdowns than the average 1010+ yard TE.
If we were to add those seven extra scores to Pitts’ rookie season, the young star would have finished with 218.6 PPR points, which would have landed him as the TE3 on the season and been the 8th highest total for a tight end in the past three seasons combined. If Pitts can find the endzone in 2022 while retaining his volume and efficiency, he should easily finish in the top 5 at the position. All of this is seems possible before mentioning that TEs don’t tend to breakout until their second season. We might well be situated to observe one of the greatest TE seasons ever. That is, if his team doesn’t completely fold around him.
THE BAD:
The Atlanta Falcons are far from a good NFL team. After trading long-time franchise QB Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts in the offseason, the team replaced the signal-caller with Marcus Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder. While the jury remains out on Ridder, Mariota has fallen from grace after being selected second overall in the 2015 NFL draft and is a far cry from a consistent producer at the position.
Without Ryan passing the ball, and with both Mariota and Ridder being more dual-threat quarterbacks than Ryan, the Falcons are likely to transition into more of a run-first offense, which could tank Pitts’ volume in the passing game. Pitts has the talent to be successful in spite of the quarterback play, and it is known that Mariota has been tight-end friendly in the past (see Delanie Walker), but the clear downgrade at the position leaves Pitts in a precarious situation.
SUPPORTING CAST:
As mentioned above, the Atlanta Falcons replaced long-time starter Matt Ryan in the offseason, opting to go with a former “draft bust” and an unknown rookie in his stead. While this might bode well for the team’s future if Ridder can pan out, the offense is murky for 2022.
Along with a new pair of quarterbacks, the team drafted WR Drake London with the 8th overall pick to be their newest perimeter threat and traded for WR Bryan Edwards from the Las Vegas Raiders. Atlanta also retained RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson and WR Olamide Zacchaeus, who finished third and fourth respectively on the Falcons in receiving yards last season.
Despite the additions and continuity, Pitts arguably has an easier path towards volume than he did last offseason, as WR Russell Gage departed to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for the season due to gambling on NFL games last season. Ridley led the team in every receiving category in 2020, and Gage finished second in yardage, targets, and receptions in each of the past two seasons.
With this pair out of the picture, Pitts has a clearer outlook for the upcoming season on paper, though London is a player to watch as he works to siphon off volume from Pitts.
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK:
With a pair of unknowns under center and a young, developing supporting cast, the Falcons aren’t likely to win many games this season. Barring a miraculous explosion from Ridder as a rookie, it seems as though the Atlanta offense will finish among the worst in the league in 2022.
Fortunately, this may be beneficial for Pitts, as a team that falls behind early and often will almost certainly lean on their passing game more often, leading to more opportunities for Pitts to make an impact. Just don’t expect much from the team as a whole.
ADP REVIEW:
Currently in PPR leagues, Pitts is being drafted as the TE3 at the end of the third round. While the second-year star could and should finish at or above his tight end value, the value of the position as a whole is drastically overrated. Looking at the past season, Pitts finished 63rd in PPR leagues among flex players (RB/WR/TE), which is a far cry from his third-round draft capital. Even if we were to take his approximation of 218.6 PPR points with an average TD share, he only would have reached 39th overall.
Therefore, while he does certainly look to be in a good position to improve as a sophomore, Pitts’ current ADP still sits above his adjusted value from last season, meaning that you are drafting purely for potential rather than for certainty. At that stage in your drafts, you would be much better suited looking elsewhere while waiting to take a tight end later in your drafts.
Simply put, Pitts has enough potential to warrant his draft slot but there are far more reliable RB or WR options around his ADP at the moment, meaning that it may be best to avoid the Falcons’ star in 2022.
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By Trenton Roberts
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.