Welcome to The BRoto "Everything You Need to Know About" series. Throughout the offseason, we will deep-dive into players for the 2022 NFL season and examine the good, the bad, and everything in between.
SUBJECT: The Dallas Cowboys Backfield
Dallas Cowboys
THE GOOD:
One of the biggest questions from the past couple NFL off-seasons is whether or not it will finally be the year Tony Pollard overtakes Ezekiel Elliott atop the running back depth chart for the Dallas Cowboys. This question is the perfect display of volume versus efficiency, one of the longest running debates in fantasy football when discussing the running back market.
In 2021, Ezekiel Elliott started in all 17 games for the Cowboy’s, amassing 1,002 yards and ten scores on the ground, spanning 237 attempts, while also hauling in 47 of his 65 targets for an additional 287 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Altogether, the former bell-cow back put together another fantastic statistical season, accumulating over 1000 yards and 8 or more touchdowns from scrimmage for the sixth year in a row.
In June, Elliott confirmed that he had played through injury for the majority of the previous season, which only shows how dominant of a back he can be even while not at peak performance. However, competition for the limelight might push him out of the driver’s seat sooner than we might think.
While Elliott handled the bulk of the workload for the Cowboys last season, Tony Pollard quietly turned into one of the most efficient and effective backups in the NFL. According to statistics provided by Broto, Pollard’s Yards Per Carry, Rushing Yards Over Expected, Explosion percentage, and Rushing Over Expected percentage, all landed in the top four among qualified candidates league wide. Despite receiving 107 fewer carries than Elliot in 2021, Pollard finished just 283 yards shy of Elliott for a total of 2.64 yards over difference, which amounts to approximately 48% of his average YPC on the season.
This disparity is all the more intriguing when we discuss snap counts, with Elliott’s 809 snaps more than doubling the 374 totaled by Pollard. Simply put, while Elliott put up great numbers on his volume, Pollard’s ability to even come close to his totals shows how efficient the then third-year back was. In the real-life aspect of football, the Cowboys are in a great situation with this duo…
THE BAD:
… But in the fantasy football realm, team managers are in a much more difficult crunch regarding this duo. For possibly the first time since joining the league as the clear bell-cow back in Dallas, Elliott may slip below the 60% snap count share. This started to take place just last season, as his 66% share was the lowest of his career, with his 71% snap share as a rookie being his next lowest total in this category.
Meanwhile, Pollard’s share of offensive snaps for the Cowboy’s has grown in each of his three seasons thus far, reaching a career high of 34% in 2021. While this number on its own is nothing to worry too much about, it is concerning for Elliott that the pair seems to be trending more towards an even split in the backfield.
Now, while this might seem like positive news for Pollard, the team’s reliance on Elliott in the past might lead to his downfall. Though the younger back has been much more efficient in recent seasons than Elliott, we must also understand that Elliott’s name and contract both hold enough weight to force himself into the bigger moments and leave Pollard once again with the less important snaps and thus fewer scoring opportunities.
We are once again stuck in the proverbial “will they, won’t they” loop regarding this duo for the 2022 season.
SUPPORTING CAST:
The Cowboys offense remains among the league’s elite heading into 2022. Aside from the backfield duo of Elliott and Pollard, quarterback Dak Prescott leads a unit consisting of wide receivers CeeDee Lamb, the injured Michael Gallup, and rookie Jalen Tolbert, along with 2021 breakout tight end Dalton Schultz. This crew operates behind an offensive line that is no longer the best in the NFL, though it still remains a talented bunch.
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK:
Led by head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the Cowboys offense will once again look to finish among the top teams in the league for 2022. However, with a pass-first attack in place and a potential even split in the backfield, it raises cause for concern as to which of the two backs will hold fantasy relevance in the upcoming season.
ADP REVIEW:
Elliott and Pollard are currently being drafted as the RB16 and RB30 respectively per FantasyPros. At these current ADPs, both backs could return solid value, with Elliott looking to tally his seventh straight season with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and Pollard fighting for opportunities and retaining elite efficiency. While either could blow their current ADP out of the water at the expense of the other, if the current projections for the backfield pair come to fruition, they figure to finish approximately at their current ADPs, with minimal margins of difference, making them both solid values at cost.
The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
By Trenton Roberts
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.