The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2022. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the AFC East division, bringing you quick-hitting bullets summarizing everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
Offensive Outlook
HC Robert Saleh and OC Mike Lafleur enter their second year as the head coach and offensive coordinator after serving time together on the 49ers coaching staff.
28th in scoring offense in 2021. Dead last in points allowed on defense.
61.3% of play calls in 2021 were pass attempts, the fourth highest total of any coach that was not fired midseason.
Notable Team Additions on Offense: G Laken Tomlinson, TE C.J. Uzomah, TE Tyler Conklin, Rookie WR Garrett Wilson, Rookie RB Breece Hall.
Notable Team Subtractions on Offense: WR Jameson Crowder, T Morgan Moses, TE Ryan Griffin.
Quarterbacks
Zach Wilson struggled mightily in his first season but is surrounded by excellent weapons and an improved offensive line entering year two.
He threw four touchdowns and nine interceptions before missing time with an injury. He returned to the field with better results throwing five touchdowns with only two interceptions and four rushing touchdowns.
Wilson was surprisingly accurate deep last year, with 67.4% of his deep ball attempts deemed catchable targets, ranking 7th in the NFL in 2021.
Wilson managed a 71.4 clean pocket passing grade from PFF in his rookie season, proving his efficiency as a passer when the offensive line keeps him upright.
Although his weapons are promising, Wilson is likely a mid-range QB2 this season.
Running Backs
Breece Hall is one of only six running backs in the NFL Next-Gen scouting era to record a perfect 99 grade.
Hall's 45.3% Collegiate Dominator Rating (A combination of receiving and rushing market share) ranks in the 95th percentile of all time.
His Broto Fantasy Player Comps are off the charts, comparing favorably to Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Knowshon Moreno, Reggie Bush, and Marshawn Lynch.
Michael Carter is now an afterthought. He was barely an RB2 last season and is now stuck behind one of the most prolific rookie running prospects in recent memory.
Wide Receivers
Between Week 7 and Week 13, Elijah Moore was never below WR40 with three top-nine finishes and two weeks as the WR1 and WR3 overall, respectively.
Elijah Moore’s ADP is now WR34. Surprisingly, below his rookie season PPG ranking of WR32.
Moore more than doubled his True Target Value rating of 67th overall as the WR32 in PPG.
Moore is an excellent value in redraft entering his second season.
Garrett Wilson is a separation specialist with tremendous hands and athleticism.
Wilson was selected tenth overall by the Jets in the 2022 NFL Draft and projects to be the team’s primary outside threat, with Moore feasting in a hybrid slot role.
Wilson has intriguing upside in redraft and best ball leagues with an ADP around WR50.
Corey Davis had two top 10 finishes and four top 30 finishes in the nine weeks he was active in 2021.
Davis finished as WR36 in PPR PPG despite a True Target Value ranking of 71st overall.
Davis’ ADP of WR71 presents intriguing upside as a late-round flier in deeper leagues.
Tight Ends
Neither Tyler Conklin nor C.J. Uzomah should be considered viable starting tight ends on your fantasy rosters.
Conklin is likely the more consistent weekly option as he averaged 15.6% target share on the Vikings while playing with target hogs Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
Bold Predictions
Breece Hall finishes in the top six running backs in 2022.
Zach Wilson will end the fantasy season with more points than any other quarterback from the 2021 draft class.
Elijah Moore is a top-15 fantasy WR.
Zach Wilson finishes outside the top 24 QBs in PPG.
Garret Wilson becomes the new alpha for the Jets, averaging well over 25% of the team's targets for his career.
Offensive Outlook
Sean McDermott enters his sixth year as the Bills' head coach but will be without long-time offensive coordinator Brian Daboll this season. Former NFL quarterback Ken Dorsey takes over the reins as the new offensive coordinator for the Bills.
The Bills were 3rd in scoring in 2021, passing the ball on 57.7% of the offensive plays, ranked 11th in the NFL.
Notable Team Additions on Offense: WR Jameson Crowder, RB Duke Johnson, G Roger Saffold, TE O.J. Howard, Rookie RB James Cook, WR Kalil Shakir.
Key Loses: WR Cole Beasley, WR Emmanuel Sanders.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen is the first quarterback since 2008-2009 (Dante Culpepper) to finish as the QB1 Overall and QB1 in PPG in back-to-back seasons.
Allen led the league averaging 24.6 PPG in 2021 with 4407 passing yards, 763 rushing yards and 42 total touchdowns (36 Passing, 6 Rushing).
Allen led the league with 32 total carries inside of the 20-yard line.
Allen had a higher True Throw Value than Patrick Mahomes in 2021.
The Bills franchise quarterback has all rights to the QB1 throne and is a solid bet to finish as the top option yet again.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary had a career-high in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions, and receiving yards in 2021 yet finished as the RB24.
Nevertheless, the Bills elected to draft James Cook out of Georgia in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft despite Singletary’s strong end to the 2021 season.
Zack Moss’ career as an NFL running back is likely in question with the addition of the Bills new rookie running back.
Cook is an undersized satellite back that will operate best in a committee approach.
Cook has never had more than 50% of the offensive touches in his collegiate career.
There is an undeniable upside to this offense at the running back position. However, deciphering who will be the main benefactors is murky at this time.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs is a clear top-10 WR with elite upside and the potential to finish as the WR1 overall in 2022.
Diggs had a “down” year in 2021. Even a lousy year for Diggs equates to WR12 in PPG with 103 receptions for 1225 receiving yards and ten touchdowns.
Diggs’ target competition is minimal considering the unproven assets on the Bills' offense.
Gabriel Davis is a questionable player. After a quiet second season, he scored four touchdowns with 201 receiving yards in the 2021 Divisional playoff matchup against the Chiefs.
Davis has been wildly disappointing outside of that one game, regressing from his rookie season totals, accumulating a minuscule total of 35 receptions in both years with 50 fewer yards and one less touchdown in his second season.
Davis was 84th in PPG, underperforming his 70th overall True Target Value rating.
Michael Salfino of the Athletic discovered that Davis’ potential might be closer to his playoff performance than his current career averages. 11 “league average” players have broken out in the playoffs amidst sub-par career averages. 50% of those players saw a 50% increase in fantasy scoring the following season.
Davis' best ball ADP is significantly higher than his redraft ADP coming in at WR20 and WR31, respectively. Davis' value in redraft is slightly more palatable than his best ball ADP.
Jamison Crowder is the most reliable and proven wide receiver on the Bills' offense, not named Stefon Diggs. The Bills traditionally funnel their targets to one outside receiving threat (Diggs) and a slot receiver over the middle (Beasley of the past).
Tight End
O.J. Howard is less talented than Dawson Knox. To paraphrase a great film, “If O.J Howard is so talented, then why doesn't he play well?”
Dawson Knox is the number one tight end on the Bills. Knox led the team in red zone targets in 2021.
You can expect some touchdown regression from Knox, as he earned just a 10.3% target share last season.
Knox is a good middle-of-the-ground TE1 option but is similarly valued to other tight ends with higher target ceilings.
Bold Predictions
Jamison Crowder will not live up to ADP and will be an un-startable asset in 2022.
All of the Bills running backs finish outside of the top 24.
Stefon Diggs is the 2022 WR1 overall, leading the NFL with 170(+) targets.
Offensive Outlook
Bill Belichick continues his tenure as the Patriots' head coach. However, the rest of the coaching staff is questionable at best. Matt Patricia is the new offensive coordinator and may be in line to call plays, which has not been positive in the past.
The Patriots were 6th in the league in scoring offense last season.
Belichick had a run-heavy approach, with 48% of their offensive plays resulting in a rush attempt, equating to the 7th highest total in the NFL.
Notable Team Additions on Offense: WR DeVante Parker, WR Lil’ Jordan Humphries, WR/RB Ty Montgomery, Rookie WR Tyquan Thornton, Rookie G Cole Strange.
Notable Team Subtractions on Offense: G Shaq Mason, G Ted Karras, RB Brandon Bolden, WR N’Keal Harry.
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones impressed in his first year, running away as easily the best rookie quarterback of the 2021 class.
Jones was the only rookie quarterback to finish in the top-20 in fantasy scoring last season.
Of the five rookie quarterbacks that started a game, Jones was the only one that managed a PFF passing grade over 65.0 and finished 2021 with an overall offensive grade of 80.4, ranked 11th.
Jones had 4260 air yards in 2021 (10th), averaging 250.6 per game despite having just 10.3% of his pass attempts travel beyond 20 yards, proving his accuracy at all field levels.
His lack of rushing prowess severely limits Jones’ upside. Still, he is a reliable QB2 in Superflex formats and an excellent bye-week replacement in standard leagues that start one QB.
Running Backs
Damien Harris had an insane 14 touchdowns in 2021 yet finished with only 14.0 PPG (RB18). That level of touchdown production is likely unsustainable for Harris in 2022.
James White is reportedly healthy for the 2022 season and should return to his role as the primary pass-catching back.
Rhamondre Stevenson could surpass Harris as the RB1, according to training camp reports.
The running backs on this roster hold limited league-winning upside and will likely form a committee of unpredictable and volatile production.
Wide Receivers
DaVante Parker is entering his age-29 season and could potentially serve as the Patriots' defacto WR1.
Parker is currently being drafted as the WR58 in redraft leagues. Last season he was a top-30 WR in four of his seven active games with three top 20 finishes.
Parker performed in line with his True Target Value, finishing as the WR38 in PPG with a True Target Value ranked 40th overall.
Jakobi Meyers ADP is WR55, the highest of the three relevant Patriots WR.
Meyers was a product of volume 2020, playing 87% of the offensive snaps, earning 126 targets last season (24.4% Target Share) and ending with just 83 receptions for 866 yards and two touchdowns.
Meyers finished as the WR 38 in PPG with a ten-spot net difference of his 28th ranked True Target Value.
Kendrick Bourne was 37th in PPG despite being 85th in True Target Value in 2021 but is currently being drafted as the WR80 in 2022.
Bourne averaged more PPG than Kendrick Bourne in 2021, recording 55 receptions on 70 targets for 800 yards and five touchdowns.
Bourne is a nice late-round pick with weekly flex appeal.
Tyquan Thornton is a low-ceiling dart throw with very little value in his rookie season.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith has pseudo-transitioned into a pure-blocking role as a fullback/tight end hybrid. Smith appears to have no fantasy relevance.
Hunter Henry is an excellent late-round tight end value for 2022.
Henry finished 2021 as the TE10 in PPG with a highly efficient season. He was second in fantasy points per target and 12th in yards per team pass attempt.
Henry is in his prime tight end years at just 27 years old on an offense that has featured the position for as long as Belichick has been the coach.
Bold Prediction
No member of the Patriots offense will finish in the top 24 fantasy players this season.
Hunter Henry has top-six tight end upside in 2022.
Jakobi Meyers finishes as the lowest ranked wide receiver on the Patriots' offense.
Offensive Outlook
The Dolphins have a completely new outlook from last season. Mike McDaniel steps in as the new head coach after serving as the 49ers' offensive coordinator and running game coordinator. Former Chargers offensive line coach and running game coordinator Frank Smith takes over as the Dolphins' new offensive coordinator.
Notable Additions on Offense: WR Tyreek Hill, T Tyron Armstead, WR Cedrick Wilson, C/G Connor Williams, RB Chase Edmonds, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Sony Michel, QB Teddy Bridgewater, Rookie WR Erik Ezukanma.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: WR DaVante Parker.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa is in a prime position to excel in his third year in the NFL. He has several elite weapons around him in the form of WR Jaylen Waddle, TE Mike Gesicki, and of course, the newly added WR Tyreek Hill. Tua also benefits from being coached by one of the league's best offensive-minded play callers, McDaniel. This coach schemed such a system so efficiently that Jimmy Garoppolo averaged 8.6 yards per pass attempt (2nd overall).
Tua was incredibly accurate in 2021, albeit in a low-volume passing offense. His Accuracy Rating ranked 3rd with a 7th ranked completion percentage, 9th ranked True Completion Percentage, and first-ranked Deep Ball and Red Zone completion percentages.
Tua had a solid mid-season rise with three QB1 performances from Week 6 to Week 13 and teetered on QB1 production throughout that stretch, never falling below QB15 in any week.
Running Backs
Mike McDaniel epitomizes the running back by committee approach, riding the hot hand and continuous scheme rotations.
Raheem Mostert has a history with McDaniel from their days on the 49ers. Unfortunately, Mostert also has a history of missed games and significant injuries.
Chase Edmonds is currently the favorite to lead the backfield in touches and is listed as the starter on the early depth charts.
Edmonds ADP offers an excellent value for managers building a hero/zero running back roster.
Myles Gaskin appears to be merely a change of pace option with minimal upside in 2022.
Wide Receivers
If Tua makes a leap in his third season, both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could pay off as fantasy producers in 2022.
Hill has an ADP of WR8. Waddle has an ADP of WR 15. Hill has sustained multiple consecutive seasons as a WR1 in fantasy, and Waddle is coming off a season where he broke the rookie record for receptions.
Waddle finished 2021 7th in receptions, 10th in targets out, performing his 28th True Target Value ranking as the WR13 in PPG. If his volume is reduced, he could be a volatile weapon and is not as safe an option as Hill.
An interesting correlation can be made between Waddle’s rookie season and Deebo Samuel’s breakout under McDaniel. Samuel ranked 92nd in average target depth the year before his incredible breakout as a dual-threat receiver/rusher. Waddle ranked 92nd in average target depth in 2021, the year before McDaniel arrived as head coach.
Cedrick Wilson comes in on a 3-year, 22 million dollar contract but may have a limited role as the fifth option/slot receiver.
Tight Ends
Upside = George Kittle. Downside = Useless. Gesicki had a 0.0 fantasy point performance in 2021 but also finished as a TE1 in six weeks and the TE8 overall.
Gesicki was the primary slot receiver for the Dolphins last season, leading all tight ends with 412 snaps out of the slot in 2021.
Gesicki is the natural WR3 in Miami and could fill McDaniel’s coveted tight end role.
Bold Prediction
The Dolphins will have a top-12 QB, a top-12 WR, and a top-12 TE in 2022.
There is a 12-spot difference between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in PPG, with Hill dominating the target share.
Mike Gesicki’s PPG finish will be more than double his current ADP.
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Player Comps
Broto Player Comparisons (available exclusively on the FREE Fantasy Football by BRoto App) are updated to showcase the incoming rookies.
Several data points are used to create confidence comparisons relevant to fantasy football production specifically. Analytical data is pulled and referenced from Peter Howard’s extensive public CFB database. Confidence comparisons are then formulated by our transcendent mathematics magician and BRoto’s lead data analyst, Santiago Casanova @BRotoFFCasanova.
For an extensive breakdown of how the Broto Fantasy Player Comps work, check out this article: Fantasy Football - 2022 BRoto Rookie Player Comparisons: Running Backs
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.