Welcome to the BRoto “Everything You Need to Know About” Series. Throughout the offseason, we will deep-dive into players for the 2022 NFL season and examine the good, the bad, and everything in between.
Subject: Michael Pittman Jr, WR, Indianapolis Colts
NFL
The Good:
Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. finished his second season in the NFL as the WR18 in PPR scoring, breaking out with 88 receptions for 1,082 yards and 6 touchdowns. Pittman saw 129 targets last season (14th in the NFL) and was ninth in the league in target percentage, a drastic improvement over his rookie season, proving that he can handle an alpha roll.
Pittman was a huge factor in the red zone, finishing with 18 red zone opportunities, 15th among all pass catchers in the NFL. His target volume in the area is not surprising considering his large frame and ability to make contested catches. Pittman also performed well in relation to the number of pass attempts the team produced, finishing seventh in the NFL in yards per team pass attempt. This was partly due to his high target share, as well as his 2.12 yards per route run, which was top-20 in the league. Pittman also evolved into a great route runner in his sophomore season, finishing third in total route wins and fourth in route win percentage. Pittman proved in his sophomore campaign that he is a good receiver who can run great routes and use his size to make contested catches.
The Bad:
Despite having an impressive sophomore season, Pittman was not free of faults. His average depth of target was 9.78 yards, which ranked a lowly 64th in the NFL, coinciding with his yards per reception of 12.3, ranking 61st in this category. This pair of stats tells us that Pittman saw most of his work in short yardage situations which are not the most valuable for fantasy football purposes. The number becomes more concerning when pairing it with his 22nd overall rank in yards after catch. These numbers suggest that Pittman relied heavily on bigger plays and high target numbers for his production, which certainly played a role in his extremely up and down season. Despite finishing 18th in PPR fantasy points, Pittman was only able to finish 27th in PPR fantasy points per game, finishing in the top-12 just twice.
Supporting Cast:
The main component of the Indianapolis Colts offense last season will be the main attraction again this season, RB Jonathan Taylor. Pittman, however, is the clear number one target after TY Hilton and Zach Pascal, the Colts other two starting WRs last season, moved on. With second round rookie WR Alec Pierce slated as the primary competition for targets, Pittman’s usage should be very high this season.
The targets will be coming from the third different veteran QB Pittman has caught passes from in his first three seasons, former Falcons QB, Matt Ryan. This is a significant change because Ryan has shown that he can be a very effective quarterback for supporting fantasy WRs. This acquisition could help Pittman evolve even further by providing him with more touchdown opportunities and more accurate targets. Ryan and Taylor should be able to move the ball more effectively this season providing Pittman with more valuable opportunities than he received last season.
Offensive Outlook:
HC Frank Reich remains the head coach and play caller of the Indianapolis Colts, his job since 2018, while OC Marcus Brady retains his position as offensive coordinator. This means that the offensive will likely run through Taylor once more. However, with Ryan replacing Wentz, the Colts will be more likely to increase the passing opportunities for the much more senior and much less mistake-prone QB.
Despite the perceived QB upgrade, True Throw Value, the Broto exclusive stat that measures the fantasy value of a QB’s pass, shows that Wentz was actually the better fantasy producer last season per attempt, finishing 16th in the category, while Ryan finished 23rd (min. 250 attempts). In fact, Ryan has not finished in the top-20 in TTV since 2018.
ADP Review:
Pittman is currently being drafted 50th overall and WR16 in redraft PPR formats (Sleeper). This price is a little bit steep for Pittman, however, he can live up to this expectation if Ryan comes in and performs at a high level. Pittman comes with a high ceiling, but also a low floor, making him a risky pick.
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By Gianluca Martini
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.