True Value Olympics - Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Welcome to the True Value Olympics! 

One of the many things that separate Broto Fantasy from the crowd is our attention to exclusive and advanced analytics. We aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the common player by giving every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.

The True Value Olympics will look back on the positional leaders in Broto Fantasy’s advanced statistics and award medals and points based on the standings of each event. 

1st Place = Gold Medal (5 Points)

2nd Place = Silver Medal (4 Points)

3rd Place = Bronze Medal (3 Points)

4th Place = No Podium (2 Points)

5th Place = No Podium (1 Points)

The True Value Podium Finalists will determine once and for all who deserves the crown of 2021’s True Value King.

Our next heat of competitors will feature the league’s top pass catchers as we turn our attention to wide receivers and tight ends.

YARDS AFTER CATCH OVER EXPECTED

*50 Receptions were required to qualify for this event*

Explanation

The number of yards after the catch a player gained compared to what was expected based on various factors. It helps to predict the number of yards the “average” player would earn in any after-the-catch scenario.

Yards After Catch Over Expected (YACOE) can be broken into two categories. The distinctions are split between YACOE/REC and YACOE%. YACOE/REC showcases the amount of Yards After Catch Over Expected, which any given pass catcher accumulates divided by their number of receptions. YACOE% is the percentage of catches that resulted in a yardage gain over expected after the pass was caught.

In our first event, we will be highlighting the league's top YACOE/REC producers while implementing a low reception minimum to determine who is the league’s leading receiver after the ball is in their hands.

1st Place: Deebo Samuel (5 Points)

YACOE/REC = 4.90

2nd Place: Ja’Marr Chase (4 Points)

YACOE/REC = 3.40

3rd Place: Brandon Aiyuk (3 Points)

YACOE/REC = 2.60

4th Place: Kendrick Bourne (2 Points)

YACOE/REC = 2.40

5th Place: Travis Kelce (1 Point)

YACOE/REC = 1.90

Event Recap

Deebo Samuel accumulated 777 yards after the catch in 2021, leading the league in yards per reception (18.2) and yards per target (11.7). Samuel dominated in his “wide back” role, levying a 78th ranked depth of target (8.1 aDOT) into 1405 receiving yards on just 77 receptions. The 49ers schemed Samuel into open field looks, allowing the star receiver to bully defensive backs in open space, evident by his YACOE% of 55.8%. The former 2nd-round pick cruises his way to a first-place finish in our opening event.

Generational talent doesn’t begin to describe the true anomaly Ja’Marr Chase was as a rookie. The first-round LSU standout reunited with his former college alum Joe Burrow, exhibiting an intangible connection that led to a league-altering season. Chase recorded 550 yards after the catch in 2021, accounting for 37.8% of his total receiving production of 1455 yards. He averaged 11.4 yards per target and 18.0 yards per reception, falling just behind Samuel in both categories. Chase can take any target to the house for six points and will continue his demolition of NFL secondaries in his second year as a pro.

Beginning the 2021 season in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s dog house had a disastrous effect on Brandon Aiyuk’s overall output compared to his rookie season. Nevertheless, the promising second-year receiver executed efficiently at every level, keeping the spark of hope alive for a potential return to elite production in 2022. Aiyuk led the NFL in YACOE% at 59.6%, making the absolute most of every opportunity in his limited role. The 49ers’ hopeful recorded 382 of his 826 receiving yards after the catch, proving to be a reliable playmaker when given a chance.

Kendrick Bourne flew under the radar as the Patriots' most effective receiver during the 2021 season. Bourne buoyed 55 receptions into 800 receiving yards, with 400 coming after he secured the pass. Bourne received 56 fewer targets than his teammate Jakobi Meyers (126 TGT) yet finished with three more touchdowns and just 66 fewer receiving yards. Bourne was a pay-off at ADP in the previous season and is another scintillating sleeper add for 2022 with an ADP of WR80 in PPR leagues.

Travis Kelce had a down year in terms of production as he was unseated as the TE1 overall in fantasy for the first time since 2015, losing his throne to Ravens tight end Mark Andrews. The Chiefs were forced to change their offense in the face of a league-wide trend of playing two high safeties against Patrick Mahomes and company. However, Kelce was still incredibly efficient with every touch despite an adjusted offensive scheme. The long-time chief paced all tight ends with 600 yards after the catch, making up for more than 50% of his total receiving production (1125 REC YDS). The 32-year-old stud is in a position to continue his efficient ways with a chance to up his peripheral numbers in 2022 now that Tyreek Hill is no longer on the roster.

SCRIMMAGE YARDS OVER EXPECTED

*A minimum of 70 Opportunities (Targets + Carries) was required to qualify for this event*

Explanation

A combination of Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE), Yards After The Catch Over Expected (YACOE), and completion probability give us the expected amount of yards on any given play compared to the actual outcome.

This exhibition showcases the receivers that excel at gaining the most with every opportunity, whether on the ground or through the air. We are again setting a low minimal opportunity threshold, and to even the playing field against cumulative yards earned, we will be focusing on Scrimmage Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (SYOE/ATT).

1st Place: Ja’Marr Chase (5 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 9.07

2nd Place (Tie): Tyler Lockett & Mike Williams (4 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 7.39

3rd Place: Dallas Goedert (3 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 7.18

4th Place: A.J. Green (2 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 6.71

5th Place: Deebo Samuel (1 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 6.51

Event Recap

The Bengals wideout sensation was a legitimate threat to score from anywhere at any moment in 2021. In his first year as a pro, Chase ranked 8th in yards per route (2.71). He fell just 28 yards short of the all-time rookie record, but his 1455 receiving yards led all NFL rookies since the 1960 season. He is off to a blistering start with two podium finishes with what appears to be an insurmountable lead at this juncture in the True Vale Olympics.

A duo of deep threats share the silver medal in our second event. Mike Williams began the 2021 season red hot with a monstrous target share well above his career averages. Williams would soon regress to his career norm in opportunities, finishing the season with 1146 yards, nine touchdowns and a 20.8% (34th) target share. His early season onslaught and contested catch ability were enough to lift the 27-year-old receiver to his first podium appearance in the True Value Olympics.

Tyler Lockett set a new career high with 1175 receiving yards in 2021. Lockett produced well above expectation after the Seahawks lost Russell Wilson due to injury halfway through the season. The speedy veteran wideout averaged 16.1 yards per reception, ranked sixth and 11.0 yards per target, ranked fourth. Although he can be a headache to manage on a week-to-week basis, Lockett consistently earns more than expected and is rewarded with recognition in this event.

Dallas Goedert enjoyed the most efficient and effective season of his NFL career in 2021. The Eagles tight end was named the unquestioned starter mid-season after the franchise traded Zach Ertz to the Cardinals. Goedert recorded 830 receiving yards, racking up 343 yards after the catch and a league-leading 2.93 yards per route run. The 27-year-old tight end is entering the prime years of his career and is sure to be a mainstay on the True Value charts for years to come.

A.J. Green was an unsuspecting qualifier for the scoring bracket in this event. Green did not excel after the catch like some of our other participants. However, the 34-year-old performed brilliantly with every opportunity. Green managed 848 receiving yards on just 54 catches. He finished tenth in the league with 15.7 yards per reception, his highest mark since his rookie career. After ten years in the NFL, the former pro bowl receiver is proving age is just a number at the True Value games.

The 49ers' multi-threat offensive weapon was a game changer with the ball in his hands during the 2021 season. However, Samuel’s added opportunities on the ground would ultimately be his demise in this event. His combined 179 opportunities (120 targets/59 carries) and low target depth (8.1, ranked 78th) could not overcome the effectiveness of his peers.

TRUE AIR YARDS

Explanation

The total amount of yards a pass traveled before getting to the receiver adjusted for the completion probability of the throw. This Broto exclusive statistic helps to weed out the statistical noise of uncatchable passes or throw-aways. The True Air Yards package also includes True aDOT, Unrealized True Air Yards, and Realized True Air Yards.

This event will focus on the cumulative Total True Air Yards, highlighting the league’s best downfield targets.

1st Place: Justin Jefferson (5 Points)

True Air Yards = 989

2nd Place = DJ Moore (4 Points)

True Air Yards = 886

3rd Place (Tie) = Cooper Kupp & Stefon Diggs (3 Points)

True Air Yards = 852

4th Place: Mark Andrews (2 Points)

True Air Yards = 835

5th Place: Davante Adams (1 Points)

LSU receivers are cleaning house at the True Value Olympics. Justin Jefferson makes his first appearance at the games with a splash, finishing first overall in True Air Yards. Jefferson paced all wide receivers in 2021 with an absurd 43.9% air yards share, accounting for nearly half of the team’s output. The Vikings' star receiver ranked first in deep targets during his second season with 34. Jefferson is one of the NFL’s brightest young stars, regardless of position, and will be a force on your fantasy teams for the next decade.

The Panthers need to get this kid a quarterback. DJ Moore has long been touted as an elite-level talent stuck in a poor situation. Moore also tops the charts in Unrealized True Air Yards, giving further evidence of the talented receiver’s need for a stable quarterback situation. In 2021, Moore averaged 39.9% of the Panthers' total air yards. Sadly, only 71.6% of his targets were deemed catchable, ranking 71st amongst all NFL receivers. Moore’s consolation is a silver medal at the inaugural True Value Olympics, although I am sure he would much prefer a top-10 quarterback.

2021’s Fantasy MVP finally reaches the podium with a third-place finish in the True Air Yards event. Kupp was much more than a volume-dependent fantasy weapon, as he matched his league-leading 31.7% target share with sensational efficiency. Kupp led the NFL in all three receiving categories, earning a receiving “Triple Crown.” He also led the NFL in yards after the catch (855), yards per route run (3.33), and yards per team pass attempt (3.21).

Stefon Diggs is known, feared and respected as an elite separator at all three field levels. The 28-year-old wideout earned 164 targets with 28 deep targets in 2021 as Josh Allen’s go-to-guy in every scenario. Diggs’ True Air Yards ranking reflects his ability to get open regardless of coverage, earning valuable downfield targets against any defensive matchup. 

Mark Andrews surpassing Travis Kelce as the top tight end in the NFL was a primary storyline in 2021. Andrews led the position in nearly every metric, pacing the league with 107 receptions for 1361 yards and nine touchdowns. His 20 total deep targets and 29.6% air yards share were reminiscent of an elite wideout as opposed to a traditional tight end. The 26-year-old alpha should reprise his role as the Ravens' top pass catcher in 2022.

Davante Adams finds himself on the scorer's table as a product of incredible volume as the Packers leading pass catcher. Adams trailed only Kupp in targets and target share in 2021. The Packers’ longtime star receiver recorded 123 receptions for 1553 yards but ranked 68th in depth of target, obtaining most of his touches on quick-hitting passes from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Nevertheless, Adams’ exceptional route running and ability to command the lion's share of targets keeps him in the top bracket in this event.

TRUE TARGET VALUE

*A minimum of 70 Targets were required to qualify for this event*

Explanation

A derivative of True Throw Value, True Target Value analyzes a player’s quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their QB’s True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable these player’s targets are. The higher the target value, the more projected points.

1st Place: Cooper Kupp (5 Points)

True Target Value = 10.21

2nd Place: Justin Jefferson (4 Points)

True Target Value = 7.57

3rd Place (Tie): Davante Adams & Keenan Allen (3 Points)

True Target Value = 7.51

4th Place: Robert Woods (2 Points)

True Target Value = 7.35

5th Place: Stefon Diggs (1 Points)

True Target Value = 6.42

Event Recap

2021’s wide receiver king rightfully takes his throne atop the True Target Value rankings. Kupp finished 2.64 points ahead of the second-placed competitor, vastly separating himself from the other participants. Even more impressive, the largest gap between the remaining top 5 was 1.35 points from 2nd to 5th. Kupp was the primary benefactor of Matthew Stafford’s league-leading True Throw Value of 0.645 as the brunch buddies exhibited an unstoppable connection on their way to a Super Bowl victory.

Justin Jefferson makes his second podium appearance in what is turning into a fevered race for first place at this year’s True Value Olympics. Jefferson thrived in his role as the Vikings' undisputed alpha, taking the reins from veteran wideout Adam Thielen. Jefferson averaged 19.4 PPG (WR4), proving to make the most of his second-ranked True Target Value score.

The veteran wide receivers of the NFL are making a strong push towards the end of the True Value games as we have yet another tie between two of the league's smoothest route-runners. 

Keenan Allen was Justin Herbert’s favorite target last season, despite the early boom of Mike Williams. Herbert’s 9th-ranked True Throw Value was a significant reason for Allen’s continued success. The oft underrated route-technician earned a career-high 157 targets in 2021, translating to his highest total in receptions (106) and a WR11 finish in PPG (16.1). 

Davante Adams cruised his way to a bronze medal finish in the True Target Value event. Catching passes from Aaron Rodgers will always be an unfair advantage. However, Adams outperformed Rodgers' True Throw Value Ranking, finishing one spot ahead of his former Packers teammate. The all-pro receiver’s resume of dominance is well documented, and he should continue that level of play regardless of the uniform on his back.

Matthew Stafford led the NFL in True Throw Value, led his team to a Super Bowl and led two of his teammates to top 16 finishes in PPG. Robert Woods had a terrific season cut short by a devastating knee injury and ensuing surgery. Woods was averaging 15.2 PPG (WR16) before suffering a torn ACL in the lead up to a Week 10 matchup against the 49ers. An unfortunate situation as the now 30-year-old wideout was on the precipice of a career year.

Stefon Diggs squeaks into the top 5 of our True Target Value event despite Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen finishing 15th (0.509) in True Throw Value. Diggs is now staring down the barrel of what could be a gigantic season in 2022 with no established secondary receivers on the depth chart. The all-pro receiver will look to increase the production on his already impressive resume of success in the upcoming season.

TRUE PLAYER GRADE

Explanation

True Player Grade is a composite score based on current year production that evaluates past performance and tries to predict future production. All players with 5+ games and 6+ PPG in a given season between 2000 and 2021 are placed on a 0-100 scale.

1st Place: Cooper Kupp (5 Points)

True Player Grade = 99.9 (A+)

2nd Place: Deebo Samuel (4 Points)

True Player Grade = 98.6 (A+)

3rd Place: Davante Adams (3 Points)

True Player Grade = 98.4 (A+)

4th Place: Justin Jefferson (2 Points)

True Player Grade = 97.3 (A+)

5th Place: Ja’Marr Chase (1 Points)

True Player Grade = 96.6 (A+)

Event Recap

Cooper Kupp’s 2021 season will go into the great pantheons of NFL history as arguably the greatest wide receiver season of the modern era. Kupp defied all predictions and projections, finishing 90.1 PPR points ahead of WR2 Davante Adams. Kupp closes out the True Value Olympics with back-to-back first-place finishes.

Deebo Samuel broke the mold of what it means to be a productive NFL receiver, leading his team in rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2021. His True Player Grade of 98.6 reflects his limitless ceiling as a do-it-all fantasy game breaker.

2021’s WR2 overall fell shy of several first-place finishes at the True Value Olympics. Adams was notably consistent in every category, showing his elite talent is not confined to one specific metric. He remains on the short list of candidates as the NFL’s number one wide receiver.

LSU Alum dominated the start of our wide receiver True Value Olympics but eventually returned to earth to close out the games. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are the future of the NFL, representing the palpable evolution of high-paced passing offenses with generational receiving talents. Expect to see these two at the top of Broto Fantasy’s exclusive and advanced analytics for as long as their careers last.

TRUE VALUE PODIUM FINALISTS

Bronze Medal

Deebo Samuel - 10 Points

Ja’Marr Chase - 10 Points

Silver Medal

Justin Jefferson - 11 Points

And the winner of the inaugural running back True Value Olympics, claiming the rightful crown of Broto Fantasy’s True Value King…

Gold Medal

Cooper Kupp - 13 Points

NFL - Grant Gordon

Chase, Jefferson, and Samuel made valiant efforts at the True Value Olympics, placing in three events each. However, Kupp’s Triple Crown season was mirrored by three consecutive podium finishes and the ultimate crown of True Value King to close out the competition.

Kupp will likely regress from the astronomical heights he reached in 2021 but is still the odds-on favorite to finish atop the fantasy scoreboards in 2022. His efficiency and command of Stafford’s precious targets are a repeat recipe for league-wide dominance.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward