It’s easy to forget that the New York Giants selected Kadarius Toney with the 20th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. All of the buzz at the WR position has revolved around Rookie of the Year Ja’Marr Chase and fellow WRs DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and even Amon-Ra St. Brown. With a paltry 57 targets, 420 receiving yards, and 0 TDs, Toney now needs a miracle to break into the top-5 at the position for a draft class that also includes Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, and Rondale Moore. This is not the ideal start to a career but I believe that he’s a bargain in redraft leagues, and is a good buy-low in dynasty compared to others in the class.
Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images
Toney’s limited production is understandable when you look at how little he played. While appearing in 10 games, Toney didn’t even reach 30% of the team’s offensive snaps in 3 of those. He also only had 2 games where he played over 60% of offensive snaps. For all other games, he was on the field a little more than half the time.
Despite the limited snaps, there were bright spots in his rookie season. In four separate games, he had at least 9 targets. In one of those games, Toney had a 13 target, 189 yard performance against the Cowboys. Unfortunately, the other three games in that four-game sample aren’t great. He turned the remaining 30 targets into 16 catches for 146 yards. He didn’t score a single TD in his rookie campaign.
I remembered seeing great moments from him so this shocked me. I regularly watched the Giants play and liked what I saw from him when he did get targeted, so I watched his film again for this piece.
If you want an example of what Toney can be, I advise you to watch the highlights from his big Cowboys game. He showed so many great qualities despite playing with both Daniel Jones and Mike Glennon in the same game. There was good burst on screens and other short distance targets. He put a lot of effort into deep, contested catches and had the awareness to stay inbounds multiple times on those plays. He fought for yards a lot but can’t always push the pile ketanbecause he’s light for his height. I’d describe his play as sneaky or slippery, because he’s always changing direction and taking off. I also see him shed defenders a lot, which makes him a fun watch. He gets open quite often, even though teams expect the Giants to pass all the time. He reminds me of Diontae Johnson, at least in the way that they both get wide open and constantly change direction to evade defenders, often to a fault. He wants to take every play to the house, and I commend that. I just know this is going to frustrate fantasy managers when he gives up easy yards to try for the home run play.
Toney is also used on trick plays. He nearly scored out of the wildcat last season and has been asked to throw at times. While that’s rarely useful for his fantasy stats, an occasional touchdown or a few yards is never a bad thing.
The real shame is that whenever I saw him Toney going in games, the Giants never gave him the ball again. The Giants would have benefited from getting more out of Toney but, in a lost season where all of their receivers were getting injured, I can understand if they wanted to keep him healthy heading into the off-season.
Heading into the 2022 season, GM David Gettleman has been replaced by former Buffalo Bills assistant Joe Schoen. Also from the Bills, new HC Brian Daboll replaces Joe Judge. I won’t talk you into this being a “new era” for New York sports but I have faith that Schoen and Daboll will use Toney a lot more this upcoming season. It’s unfair to compare anyone on the Giants to anyone on the Bills, but seeing the transformation of Josh Allen with Daboll at OC gives me a lot of hope for this team going forward. Whether they draft a new QB or not, Toney will love this new change.
We don’t have an idea of how low Toney’s floor can go but I’m not worried. Look at the rest of the Giants’ receiver room. Guys like Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Kenny Golladay have missed significant time but still have serviceable weeks and overall seasons. Although Golladay was expected to be the alpha there, he didn’t do much in his first year with the G-Men. That leaves the door wide open for Toney to be the target-hog on the Giants.
One thing does worry me about this regime change. Draft capital is often an indication of future usage, especially at positions like running back and Wide Receiver. Toney, however, was selected by the former GM. Will Schoen like him as much as Gettleman did? Gettleman originally caught a lot of flack for taking Toney much earlier than expected, and we see players like that every season. The jury is out on whether Schoen will utilize Toney like a first-round pick.
With his fantasy ADP in the 11th round, Toney should be taken over most others in the same range. Going directly after Toney are Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Russell Gage, Mecole Hardman, and Allen Lazard. While some of those players are tied to better QBs and overall offenses, I would rather take a shot on a sophomore with potential and a fresh start instead of continued mediocrity. As for players going earlier, I’d take him over Corey Davis, Tyler Boyd, and even Gabriel Davis and Cordarelle Patterson.
In my mind, Toney is a player who would benefit from playing alongside an alpha receiver. For that reason, I hope that the Giants manage to get one in the draft. While that would bump his value up for me, I’m still buying heavily at the current price and ADP. I am confident he will finish as a high-end WR3, at worst. He is a bright star on an otherwise incompetent roster.
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By Themi Michalakis
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