A 2-1 week lowers our overall win percentage but you know that you’ve been having success when a plus week is a down week! My Game of the Week is 7-1, with the only loss coming back in Week 6. The Underdog of the Week is 7-0, with a game missing because of big line movement only a few hours after the article went live. My other picks are 10-3 since introducing these categories. Thanks for tailing and let’s keep winning!
Game of the Week
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ New York Giants O/U: 44.5
Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -1
NBC Sports
This is an interesting line. Surely the Eagles, one of the league heavyweights, should be favored by more than a touchdown. The Giants boast one of the worst overall defenses in the league, about equally as bad against the pass and the run. Their offense is really good, though, despite a lack of quality pass-catchers. Brian Daboll has done something really special with Daniel Jones and turned the Giants into a top-half offense.
When it comes to the Eagles, I feel like I’m constantly repeating myself: They’re excellent on both sides of the ball and there’s a reason they’re 11-1. It doesn’t matter how you slice it, they’re incredible.
New York has a path to victory via Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, assuming he plays. The Giants match up well against a struggling Eagles run defense that ranks 23rd against the run by DVOA and 27th by EPA. It’s just unfortunate for the Giants that their passing defense is also terrible and they get the luxury of trying to stop both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Eagles also match up well against a struggling Giants run defense, as Philadelphia boasts the top rushing offense in the league. “Anything you can do, I can do better“ should be the Eagles’ motto this week.
Outside of a shocking loss to the Commanders, the Eagles have been incredibly dominant. Their lowest point totals and closest games have come against the top defenses in the league. It’s hard to see the Giants shutting down Jalen Hurts and the gang in this one given that the Giants’ defense is not an asset. With the line moving to 7.5 on some books, it looks like there’s still faith in the Eagles to win by more than a TD but we can settle for a close win.
Underdog of the Week
Baltimore Ravens (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U: 36.5
Themi’s Teaser: Ravens +8
Is Tyler Huntley really that bad? He’s no Lamar Jackson but he was a capable backup in his comeback win last week. His EPA+CPOE of 0.189 ranks 2nd in the league amongst QBs, just behind Tua Tagovailoa. It’s a small sample size—only 46 plays—but even at the low threshold he impresses compared to other backups like Mike White and Bailey Zappe. A lot of his value came from his 84.4% completion percentage.
Kenny Pickett, on the other hand, does not impress. He showed off some nice rushing ability that the team lacked for years but outside of that, he’s not exciting anyone. Pickett’s a rookie on a team that wants safety and reliability, which is why the team hasn’t won a game by more than 7 points all season. This type of play helps the Steelers get close wins in low-scoring games. They just aren’t ready to take a leap forward and become a high-octane offense. The division-leading Ravens are pretty similar so, if this is a mirror match, why not take the better team to win or lose by up to a TD?
This line has maxed out at 3 points meaning sharp money generally isn’t willing to trust the Steelers by more than a field goal. That sounds like good news for this play because we can afford to let them win by a whole touchdown. A low point total paired with a small line, two good defenses, and boring offenses puts the Ravens in a great spot to cover this spread.
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/BRotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.