With Week 4 of the NFL season in the books, Broto Lead Writer Matt Ward and staff writer Clayton Jones have their eyes on three buy low targets and three sell high targets heading into Week 5!
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Jerry Jeudy WR - Denver Broncos
Sporting News
Jerry Jeudy opened up the 2022 season catching four of seven targets for 102 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the WR23 in Week 1. He was knocked out of the Broncos Week 2 contest with shoulder and rib injuries, forcing a limited snap count and opportunity share in Week 3. Jeudy bounced back in Week 4 with a decent performance in a loss to the Raiders, catching four of five targets for 53 yards and one touchdown. The third-year wideout is on the rise as the Broncos WR1(B) alongside fellow target-earner Courtland Sutton. The offense he plays for is the only negative holding Jeudy back from consistent WR2 production. The Broncos have struggled mightily to begin the 2022 season, averaging 354.5 scrimmage yards (21st), 226.2 passing yards (19th) and 16.5 points per game (29th). The team has hit rock bottom with their offensive output and will now be without Javonte Williams, who happened to be second on the team in receptions and targets due to Jeudy's injury. Russell Wilson will be forced to look for a new short-yardage security blanket without Williams, opening up even more opportunities for an area where Jeudy has excelled his entire career. The offense should eventually start producing at a higher rate with Wilson under center in his first year as a Bronco. They have the weapons and the talent to succeed but the lack of familiarity within the system is rearing its ugly head through the first four weeks. Buy low on Jeudy now as his peripheral stats suggest he will be a major benefactor of this offense once things start clicking.
Matt Ward
Rachaad White RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I have long said that it is only a matter of time before the Buccaneers realize they have a 6'0" tall, 215lbs supercharged James White in the backfield. It appears as if the coaching staff is beginning to catch on. Rachaad White is an analytical dream, boasting one of the best collegiate profiles as a dual-threat running back in NCAA history. A slow start to the 2022 season amidst a limited snap share behind veteran leader Leonard Fournette leaves several managers to assume that White is nothing more than a low-end backup with minimal upside. Those sentiments could not be further from the truth as demonstrated by the Buccaneers' usage splits in Week 4. Fournette entered the team's contest with an opportunity share above 75.0%, out-snapping his younger counterpart in every game. In Week 4, White matched Fournette's rushing opportunity share (albeit with only three carries a piece) while receiving 24 offensive snaps to Fournette's 39. The rookie back earned five targets, securing five receptions for 50 yards. White had the Buccaneers' only rushing touchdown of the day. He also amassed 300% more rushing production than Fournette, needing just six yards to topple his veteran teammate's despicable total of negative three yards on three carries. White also played 100% of the Buccaneers' final two series to finish the game despite fumbling on the opening kickoff. The organization wants to instill confidence in White as an every-down weapon, evident by their continued attempts to increase the rookies playing time and opportunity share. Things are on the up and up for the dynamic running back but the market has yet to catch up. Attempt to pry White away from impatient managers for pennies on the dollar and reap the rewards mid-season.
Matt Ward
Breece Hall RB - New York Jets
Michael Carter was one of the sexy best ball picks early in the offseason for many. He continued to gain steam and rise in drafts based on the idea that he’d hold off Breece Hall for a while. Ladies and gentlemen, that time has passed. It’s Breece Hall SZN!
It took some timeto get here, but in week 4, Breece Hall bested Michael Carter in every significant aspect: Snap percentage, rushing share and target share. Hall has also garnered more redzone touches than Michael Carter this season (9-6, respectively). Being that this is the first week Hall was better than Michael Carter in all aspects, now is the time to buy—before his price sky rockets. Hall is seemingly game-script proof and Quarterback proof. Another aiding factor for Hall is that the Jets are 3rd in the NFL in plays. The Jets are running plays at a high rate and Hall is trending in the right direction—go buy Hall before the window closes.
Clayton Jones
SELL HIGH
Leonard Fournette RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The prospect of selling high on Leonard Fournette directly correlates to Rachaad White's rise as a viable NFL running back. Fournette has looked old and ineffective through the first four weeks, exposing his lack of efficiency amidst an unsustainable 78.7% snap share and 84.5% rushing share for the Buccaneers. The playoff hero has garnered 60 rushing attempts thus far, averaging 3.7 yards per carry for 224 yards (56.0 YPG). His 12.3% target share resulted in 16 receptions for 111 yards (6.94 YPR) with one touchdown, averaging 27.8 receiving yards per game. Fournette has yet to find the end zone on the ground this season. Safe to say that a Super Bowl contending roster with Tom Brady on the roster in what may very well be his final year of football will not be content with those numbers from their starting running back. Fantasy managers should feel the same way. 83.8 scrimmage yards on 25.3 touches per game is not what you want from your RB1. As mentioned above, Week 4 marked the first contest in which the veteran back yielded touches to the up-and-coming youngster. Rachaad White is exactly what the Buccaneers' offense needs. He is an explosive, big-play maven with a receiving pedigree matched by only Christian McCaffrey at the collegiate level. Furthermore, Fournette desperately needs to maintain his insane volume share to support his fantasy production due to his dreadful efficiency ratings. In contrast, White can impact the scoreboard in a litany of ways with minimal opportunity. Any form of committee backfield would destroy Fournette's upside while simultaneously increasing White's value and production.
Matt Ward
Rashaad Penny RB - Seattle Seahawks
Rashaad Penny ran rampant on the Lions' defense, rushing for 151 yards on 17 carries (8.9 YPC) with two touchdowns in a dramatic shootout that saw the Seahawks topple their opponents 48-45. Penny has looked horrendous outside of his Week 4 blow-up, finishing as the RB69 in Week 1. He followed that up with an RB147 performance in Week 2 and an RB37 showing in Week 3. The former first-round draft pick has rushed for fewer than 70 yards in three out of four games this season, averaging 6.03 PPR PPG in those three contests. Penny has played one good half of football in four weeks of competition, yet several managers are singing the praise of the oft-injured veteran. His value is being propped up by a singular outlier performance in a wildly unpredictable, high-scoring affair against the league's worst defense. Soft matchups will not be at the forefront for Penny as the Seahawks meet the Saints and Cardinals in the coming weeks, two defenses that have had great success stopping the run this season. Managers should keep in mind that rookie second-round running back Kenneth Walker III is lurking on the depth chart, prepared to vulture any presumed upside his teammate may have. Selling Penny at his rising value after three poor performances provide managers with a much-needed out for this declining asset.
Matt Ward
TJ Hockenson TE - Detroit Lions
I identified TJ Hockenson as a DFS play this past week in Clay’s Corner and he went absolutely nuclear! Enjoy what just happened and use it to sell. I’m not discrediting Hockenson, who finished with a career game of 8 catches for 179 yards and two touchdowns, but it did take Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, and D’Andre Swift being out for that to happen. Could this be the long-awaited Hockenson breakout?! Maybe, but how could you be so sure?
Hockenson had target shares of 18.9 percent, 20.6 percent, and 9.8 percent in weeks one through three. TE is ugly right now so sell Hockenson while someone thinks they’re getting a top-3 player. When the iron is hot, it’s time to strike!
Clayton Jones
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.