With Week 5 of the NFL season in the books, Broto Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 6!
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Diontae Johnson WR - Pittsburgh Steelers
Good receivers earn targets. Great receivers earn targets independent of the talent that surrounds them. Quarterback changes, rising rookie teammates, declining offensive line, none of it seems to matter when it comes to Diontae Johnson and his insatiable appetite for targets. Through five weeks of the 2022 season, Johnson has amassed 50 (10 TGT/G) of his team’s 181 passing attempts, equating to a 27.62% target share. He leads all members of the Steelers' offense in receiving with 28 receptions for 267 yards but has yet to find the end zone. The elite separation specialist is averaging a meager 11.4 PPR PPG this season, ranked WR40. The Steelers receivers survived the disastrously decrepit delivery of Ben Roethlisberger in 2021 but could not withstand the treacherous True Throw Value (TTV) of Mitchell Trubisky. The former Bears and Bills quarterback boasts a punitive TTV rating of 0.249, ranked QB36 in 2022. A switch to first-round quarterback Kenny Pickett could do wondrous things for the fantasy scoring of the Steelers number one wide receiver. If the rookie signal-caller can maintain a TTV anywhere near the league average, Johnson will surely benefit. Fantasy managers are undeniably disappointed with the veteran wideout, creating a value dip in the market to take advantage of. No other players in WR4 territory have the level of talent to maintain an elite opportunity share as stable as Johnson’s. Acquire the veteran receiver at his declining value and enjoy the production profits as the season goes on.
Chris Godwin WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin has yet to have his patented blow-up game since returning from injury this season. The Buccaneers wideout earns a healthy portion of the team’s targets when in the lineup, with ten targets (19.2%) in Week 4, following it up with six targets (11.5%) in Week 5. Godwin’s low evaluation is not reflective of his season-long outlook, upside, talent, or role as the number-one target earner in a Tom Brady-led offense. A slow start to the 2022 season for the Buccaneers' passing game has left several to wonder if the greatest to ever play the game should have stayed retired this offseason. Although the offense has stuttered in the win column, Brady remains a lethal orchestrator of the offense, completing 68.4% of his passes this season with a NextGen accuracy grade of 7.8, ranked 12th in the league. Brady is delivering a ‘catchable’ pass on 81.3% of his attempts, per PFF, and is beginning to allocate those attempts to Godwin at a higher rate. The former fifth-year wideout will continue to be featured in a more prominent role as he ramps up from his previous injuries. The Buccaneers may be on a similar trajectory to their Super Bowl-winning season that saw the franchise start slow before steamrolling the league en route to a world championship. I would not bet against a bounceback for this team in what may be Brady’s final season. Godwin will surely be a benefactor of increased volume moving forward and should return value as a high-end WR2/low-end WR1 before the season finishes.
Kenneth Walker III RB - Seattle Seahawks
Before the season began I would not have advised managers to expect much from a rookie running back on one of the league’s lowest projected scoring offenses. Through five weeks those sentiments have dissipated into a respect for the emergence of journeyman quarterback Geno Smith into a superstar leader. The Seahawks' offense is humming to a tune of 383.3 scrimmage yards (8th) with 246.0 passing yards (11th) and 122.0 rushing yards (12th) per contest. The team is scoring at a top-10 rate, averaging 25.4 points of offense (7th) in 2022. Rookie Kenneth Walker III is now expected to be the lead running back of said offense with Rashaad Penny suffering a disastrous season-ending injury against the Saints in Week 5. Walker III immediately walked into a workhorse role upon Penny’s departure, taking eight carries for 88 yards and a touchdown, including a tremendous 69-yard scamper for a score. The rookie second-rounder played 58.0% of the total offensive snaps with a cumulative rushing share of 47.1% in Week 5. After the veteran running back was ruled out, Walker III recorded 100.0% of the Seahawks' rushing attempts on 88.0% snap participation. Managers may be slow to react to the rise of the Seahawks' new starting running back as the previous leader managed just 11.7 PPR PPG (RB25) during the first four weeks of the season. Hopefully, some of Penny’s disappointing 2022 resume rubs off on Walker III, allowing a discount acquisition. Nevertheless, the rookie has top-15 RB potential amidst his increased role and will be well worth the market asking price for managers in need of a sturdy every-week starter at the position.
SELL HIGH
Gabriel Davis WR - Buffalo Bills
Buffalo News
Three receptions on six targets. I am much less concerned with Gabe Davis’ 171 yards on busted coverages than his ridiculously minuscule target share. Davis is the boom-or-bust king of fantasy football, earning minimal opportunity in every contest while putting up game-breaking numbers in an unpredictable fashion. I am willing to admit that the third-year wideout is benefiting beautifully from the MVP trajectory of Josh Allen in the league’s top passing offense. That said, his absurd rising cost following random peak performances despite his equally low valleys is an area a manager can exploit for a positive value gain. Davis has a laughable 12.0% target share this season despite leading the team with 256 snaps (97.3%). His main role is that of a decoy alongside perennial All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs. Davis will continue to put up inconsistent and unpredictable weeks of big production but can be traded for much more than his suggested PPG total. It is more than likely that managers are once again overvaluing Davis after his Week 5 showing. Check the temperature on your league market and see if you can move this volatile receiver for a high-end WR2 such as Amari Cooper (WR17 PPG). Better yet, attempt to bait an unsuspecting manager for an undervalued WR1 candidate like Ja’Marr Chase (WR16 PPG) or CeeDee Lamb (WR20 PPG).
Taysom Hill TE - New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill was up to his unusual ways of scoring a preposterous amount of touchdowns and fantasy points in Week 5. Hill ended the slate ranked TE1 overall, scoring 35.1 PPR fantasy points with nine rushing attempts for 112 yards and three touchdowns with no receiving stats to speak of. Travis Kelce finished 1.6 PPR points behind Hill as the TE2 despite catching four touchdowns. The Saints version of a gridiron swiss-army knife holds the TE positional designation across all fantasy platforms yet saw zero targets and ran zero routes in their Week 5 victory. Not only is the veteran gadget player a prime selling option for his mystical and unsustainable touchdown production, but his designation as a fantasy tight end is in serious jeopardy after playing an entire week as a quarterback/running back hybrid. If Hill loses his TE label on fantasy platforms, he becomes a touchdown-dependent asset with incredible risk as a player you cannot trust as an every-week starter in your lineups. Make offers in an attempt to trade Hill for a high-upside tight end on the rise in a one-for-one swap rather than hinging your roster production on a 32-year-old positionless trick-play maven.
Michael Carter RB - New York Jets
Michael Carter collected a season-high 17.3 PPR points in Week 5, opening up one last trade window to sell the second-year running back. Managers should be working with a fevered intensity to quickly move Carter off their rosters despite his high-scoring performance against the Bengals. The 17.3 PPR points scored by the Jets second-string back are propped up by two walk-in touchdowns on the one-yard line after rookie sensation Breece Hall drove the team downfield. Carter received ten carries to Hall’s 18 attempts, with only 42.0% of the team’s offensive snaps, his lowest total of the 2022 season. The Jets new rookie running back is leaving the former 2021 fourth-round pick in the dust. The goal line opportunities will inevitably shift in favor of Hall as the season goes on, completing the takeover as a true workhorse in this young offense. Attempt to get whatever you can from Carter on the trade market this week as he will soon enter the basement of fantasy football irrelevance. Whether it be a late-round rookie pick in dynasty leagues or an overlooked flier in redraft, whatever you can squeeze out of Carter’s big Week 5 performance will likely be a richer asset in the near future.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.