Like most bettors, the Chargers losing to the Texans really threw a wrench in last week. Hopefully the Betting with Schiz faithful did not have too much exposure to that line, as we had a lot of success in other areas!
Christmas Day was excellent, as the Packers once again took home the dub, and Davante Adams found the endzone twice. Colts vs. Cardinals was less exciting with both unders hitting in a very uncharacteristic game for both teams. Bills ML was the big winner of the week, handily taking care of business in Foxborough, and Dawson Knox snagging a TD in the final minutes of the game for the cherry on top. In fact, of the potential TD scorers in last week's article, 5 out of 8 that played in their respective games found the endzone. That’s what we like to see! Let’s get into Week 17.
Colts -7 vs Raiders (-106)
Jeff Lewis/Associated Press
Indianapolis is legit, no way around it. They made fools of the Cardinals on Christmas Day in their own home, and they continue to perform at the highest of levels. The Raiders, on the other hand, have scraped together a pair of not so pretty wins against the Browns and Broncos, but failed to put up more than 17 points in either matchup. Both of those opponents had two things in common: Solid defenses and struggling offenses. The Colts have a solid defense as well, but also have an incredible offense that is firing on all cylinders. With Tennessee pulling off the win against San Francisco last week, there is no room for error in Indy if they want to secure a playoff spot. The Colts will win by one score easily.
Rams -4.5 @ Ravens (-110)
The Ravens have been overrated all year, if you have been following Betting with Schiz, you know this already. Thanks to Broto’s very own Michael Petropoulos, I was alerted to the fact that the Ravens are the best matchup for opposing QB’s according to Defensive Points Over Average, to go along with being the 3rd and 5th easiest matchup for WRs and TEs, respectively. This means a big day for Matt Stafford and his weapons. The result of this one will likely surprise some people, as I am expecting a big and comfortable win for LA. -4.5 is a number I am happy to wager a full unit on.
Bengals +5.5 vs Chiefs (-112)
The game of the week! Cincinnati controls their own destiny in the very tight AFC North and will face a KC team that is absolutely on fire. Bengals ML (+176) is a fun sprinkle, but it is unwise to bet against this Chiefs team at this point in the season. However, with their Division locked up and the 1 seed within control, the Chiefs have much more wiggle room than this Bengals team. I expect an excellent game, likely shootout style, with a dramatic finish. 5.5 is too many points for the Chiefs to cover, so we will ride Cincy on the spread!
Parlay
Titans ML vs Dolphins (-168)
+
Browns ML @ Steelers (-178)
(+149)
Two teams that cannot afford to lose, both returning to form, and both with spreads set on the evil 3.5 point hook. Betting -3.5 has burned me too many times to consider either of these as spreads, but together, on the money line, there is a nice value of +149.
The Titans brought star WR AJ Brown back from the depths of the IR last week and boy did he show out, earning over 31 fantasy points in his return to the gridiron and helping elevate Tennessee to a much needed victory over the 49ers at home. At 10-5, this team is still in the running for the 1 seed (believe it or not) and with the Colts hot on their trail in the AFC South, they cannot afford to drop a home matchup to the Miami Dolphins. Mike Vrabel will find a way to win this one and keep the pressure off.
Now I know this will likely be Big Ben’s last game at home and I am all for a good narrative, but this Steelers team looked pathetic last week and not everyone gets a happy ending just because it would be a good story.
Expect close games from both matchups, but the favored teams will rise to the top here.
Parlay
Buccaneers Alt -6.5 @ Jets (-230)
+
Bills Alt -6.5 vs Falcons (-280)
(-106)
Sometimes big spreads are scary, and this is the case for both of these teams. While I expect both teams to win comfortably, 13 plus points is a big ask, and we have seen both of these power houses fall to trap games this year already. But we should not overthink it, the time for contenders to take care of business each and every week has arrived and that is what both of these football teams are. Take them each to win by a TD and enjoy a nearly even money play.
Upside Shot: Lions ML @ Seahawks (+245)
Not an official play, but the Lions have me hooked. Despite being an objectively bad football team, they play with a lot of heart and seem to have a strong developing culture. In the last 7 weeks, Detroit has only been blown out once, with narrow defeats coming at the hands of Atlanta, Chicago, and Cleveland. Over that stretch, the Lions also managed to tie Pittsburgh, steal a win from the Vikings, and absolutely stomp Arizona. Seattle, on the other hand, has lost back to back games, are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, and despite their reputation, are the third worst team in the NFC, ahead of only my dumpster fire Giants and, you guessed it, the Detroit Lions. +245 is excellent value for a sprinkle, maybe even a half unit. Proceed with caution!
TD Scorers
Below is a list of players I like to find the end zone this week based on matchups, propensity, etc.
Play as singles, add to parlays, whatever suits your fancy! As was the case with last week, a lot of TD lines are not yet available at this time so keep up with injury and COVID announcements before placing any wagers.
Jonathan Taylor
David Montgomery
Ronald Jones
Jalen Hurts
Darrel Williams
Cooper Kupp
Odell Beckham Jr.
Austin Ekeler
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Davante Adams
Happy New Year everyone! Be safe and let's start 2022 off with some extra cash.
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By Mike “Schiz” Schissel (@MichaelSchissel)