Week 11: Clay's DFS Corner

Week 11: Clay’s DFS Corner

Welcome to the BRoto Weekly DFS article! Here we are going to identify some of our favorite plays/fades and try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games! Hope you all had a good week last week, I made some questionable decisions that led to some losses but had some smashes too.  Let’s try to have another #printfest for Week 11!  

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Best games to target:

  1. DAL @ KC O/U- 56.5

    • Implied totals: DAL 27; KC 29.5

  2. IND @ BUF O/U- 50

    • Implied totals: IND 21.5; BUF: 28.5

  3. GB @ MIN O/U- 49

    • Implied totals: GB 25.75, MIN: 23.25

Top plays GPP:

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

QB: Some of these plays may overlap with cash: Dak Prescott $7200 FD, Mahomes $7600 FD, Lamar Jackson $8000 FD. 

  1. Ryan Tannehill $7600 FD.  Tannehill has 5 rushing TD’s this season, 4 of them in his last 5 games.  This Titans run game is a mess with 3 RBs so Tannehill could have a bigger game than his usual efficiency allows in a good matchup and the skinny Tannehill + AJB stack fits naturally.  I also expect Tannehill to have low rostership.

  2. Cam Newton $7500 FD.  He’s baaaaaack and he’s taking first-team reps this week.  Cam revived the ugly Carolina offense last week I expect him to continue carrying the offense against a WFT that just lost DE Chase Young for the season. The WFT has a passing rank of 29th in DVOA at 24.1% (Football Outsiders)  which in turn, is good for a Cam and Robby Anderson stack.    

RB:

  1. Myles Gaskin $6200 FD.  I literally feel sick to my stomach writing this, yet the Jets are really struggling against the run.  They almost gave up a rushing TD to every RB on the Bills roster last week and rank 31st in rush DVOA. The matchup makes sense if you can tolerate it. 

  2. James Robinson $7100 FD.  I know the 49ers just demolished the Rams, however that may be more of a coach vs. coach battle (Shanahan is 6-3 vs. McVay FYI).  Here are the 3 previous opponents rushing totals:

    1. Week 7: 148 vs Colts (107 courtesy of Johnathan Taylor)

    2. Week 8: 176 vs Bears (103 for Justin fields, 72 from Khalil Herbert)

    3. Week 9: 163 vs Cardinals (96 from James Connor)

    Let’s not be fooled by last week, this team can be exploited by the run and Robinson can run. 

WR: 

  1. Deebo Samuel $7600 FD.  Of all Kyle Shanahan’s faults, feeding Deebo is not one.  According to the Fantasy Football by BRoto App, Samuel ranks 2nd in SYOE (scrimmage yards over expected).  Despite his target share coming back down to earth (22.5% and 26.3% last two weeks), the big play opportunity is always there.

  2. Hollywood Brown $7300 FD.  I realize the Ravens looked awful Thursday night.  I also realized that Hollywood Brown has 54 targets over his last 5 games, greater than 10 targets/gm, and ranks 9th in adjusted air yards (also exclusively available on the Fantasy Football by BRoto App).  In Week 8, Samuel torched the Bears secondary for 161 yds on 6 receptions and Chicago ranks 19th in passing DVOA at 11.1%.  Hopefully, we’ll all be saying ‘thank you’ to recency bias after Week 11.  

TE: 

  1. Dawson Knox $5600 FD.  I know Knox only had 1 target for 1 catch this past Sunday, however, when the Jets were being so generous to the ground game there was no need to pepper Knox with targets. Knox still plays on one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the NFL and in a great matchup there will be more opportunities going forward. This could be a sneaky week to play him in GPPs. 

  2. Tyler Conklin $5500 FD.  Conklin has quietly become a target machine, catching 24 targets over the past four weeks, and now has a great matchup for the third straight week.

D/ST:

  1. CAR D/ST $4100 FD.  No, I’m not giving up my TEN D/ST bit, but CAR is the defense I want this week.  The Panthers rank 3rd in pressure rate at 27.8%, are tied for 2nd in sacks with 27 and 6th in blitz-percentage at 31.7%. On the other side, the WFT offensove line ranks 13th worst in adjusted sack rate at 6.8. Plug-in that CAR defense. 

Top cash fades:

QB: 

  1. Russell Wilson $7300 FD. You’re probably not looking Wilson’s direction this week in cash but if you are, don’t.  Wilson has been QB 19 or worse 3 times this season and barely cracked QB1 three times, finishing as QB 8, 9, and 10.  Something is really wrong with the SEA offense.  The last two games Wilson played, he finished with less than 200 passing yards in each.  Wilson also ranked dead-last in True Throw Value (TTV) in Week 10.  Don’t go near the SEA offense.  

RB: 

  1.  Antonio Gibson $6700 FD.  The two TDs last were great and all but 2.6 yds/carry was putrid.  To be fair, let’s check Gibson’s yds/carry over the past 5 games:

    1. Week 5- 3

    2. Week 6- 4.4

    3. Week 7- 3.6

    4. Week 8- 4.25

    5. Week 10- 2.6

There are certainly some fluctuations, but overall Gibson’s performance has been lackluster.  He’s scored 20 FD points twice the past 5 weeks and those weeks were two TD performances.  Gibson is going to be a no for me. 

WR:

  1. Jarvis Landry $6300 FD.  Welcome to this week’s “don’t get cute starring Jarvis Landry” lesson.  His best FD scoring week was Week 1 where he scored 16.9 points. Since then, he has yet to score more than 7.5 FD points.  Not helping his case is QB Baker Mayfield, who ranks 5th worst in bad throw rate at 19.9% according to Pro Football Reference.   

  2. Terry McLaurin $7000 FD.  This is not the week for Scary Terry.  The Carolina defense is going to be pressuring QB Taylor Heinicke all day (check the CAR GPP section for more stats).  He also has only scored once in the past 5 games.  Keep the F1 in the garage this week.

TE:

  1. Darren Waller $6700 FD.  Waller has only scored double-digit FD points just 3 times this season. He’s getting a decent amount of targets, but only has two TDs on the season and has only gone over 60 receiving yards 3 times. Fade Darren “just another brick in the” Waller.   

D/ST:

  1. GB D/ST $4000 FD.  I understand that the Packers' defense has been better lately, however, the Vikings offense has been excellent lately.  The Vikings are ranked 4th-best in passing DVOA (football-outsiders) and even if CB Jaire Alexander returns for this contest, Minnesota has 4 viable pass-catchers to counter him.  Although the Vikings have been subpar running lately, Dalvin Cook has still had 94 or more yards in three of his last 4 games including 2 TDs.  Pass on the cheese-head defense this week. 

Top plays Cash:

QB: 

High priced:

  1. Josh Allen $8800 FD.  Allen resuscitated the Bills offense last week and he plays the Colts which ranks 23rd in passing DVOA at 16%.  Although the Colts smothered the Jaguars last week, the previous two games they’ve given up 317 passing yds and 3 TD’s to Josh Johnson and 265 passing yards and 3 TDs to Ryan Tannehill. The last time Allen played the Colts he went 26/35 with 325 passing yards and 2 passing TDs.  He also had 11/54 rushing and 1 rushing TD.  Seems like another smash spot for Allen.  

Mid-low priced:

  1. Patrick Mahomes $8300 FD.  Mahomes got the KC offense back on track in Vegas last week, throwing for 406 yards and 5 TDs.  This week he faces Dallas who ranks 3rd-best in passing DVOA at -14.4% after putting the clamps on the Falcons in Week 10.  Mahomes carries a little more risk than most weeks.    

  2. Dak Prescott $8400 FD.  Dak popped off for 296 passing yards and 3 total TDs last week and only received a $100 increase on FD.  Defensively, KC has been atrocious.  Their passing DVOA rank is 27th and rushing defense is just one spot better at 26th rushing DVOA.  So, the only question with Dak is will he pass enough? I think so, Dak is my preferred cash option this week.  

RB:

  1. Joe Mixon $7600 FD.  Fine, I’ll put Mixon on here.  All kidding aside, Mixon is doing work, especially in the endzone, scoring 7 total TD’s in his last five games. Sure, Burrow will put up some numbers, but why throw when you can run against a defense that’s given up the 8th most rushing yards and tied for 4th worst yards/carry allowed at 4.6?  Mixon has also scored 20 or more FD points in three of his last four games.  

  2. Christian McCaffery $10000 FD.  Cam Newton isn’t the only piece who’s back for Carolina, so is CMC. Coming off a 10-target, 10-catch game, its full-speed ahead for the fantasy stud.   

  3. Nick Chubb $9000 FD.  Chubb needs to be in your cash game this week.  Detroit ranks 29th in rush DVOA and has given up the 3rd most rushing yards this season.  Don’t overthink this play.    

WR: 

  1. Tyreek Hill $8500.  Hill is getting the volume.  He’s had 39 targets the past 3 weeks and 60 targets the past 5 weeks.  I’m not a CB/WR matchup person, but I’d venture that Trevon Diggs will be on Hill and Diggs has been known to give up the big play(s).

  2. AJ Brown $7200 FD.  This play also works for GPPs (recency bias play).  The Titans have one true weapon on offense and that’s AJB.  

  3. Tee Higgins $6500.  He has 29 targets in his last three games and he’s due for some positive TD regression (only 2 TDs on the season).  Higgins is a nice value play this week. 

TE:

  1. Travis Kelce $7300 FD.  Kelce was lining up all over the field against the Raiders, including the backfield. The targets are still there and KC has a 29.5 implied total.  

  2. Tyler Conklin $5500 FD.  See GPP section

  3. Adam Trautman $4800 FD.  If you’re trying to spend down at TE, Trautman is your guy.  He’s had 19 targets over the past three games, recording a 15.4%, 16.3%, and 16.7% target share in each game, respectively.  Trautman is getting enough looks to be viable this week. 

D/ST:  

  1. CAR D/ST $4100 FD.  See GPP section

  2. TEN D/ST $4600 FD.  They get to play the Texans this week, need I say more?

Lone-ranger play:

  1. Michael Gallup $5400 FD.  If this game is a shoot-out like we expect, Dallas will need every playmaker available to keep up.    

Final thoughts on cash/GPP’s:

  1. Dak Prescott and Josh Allen are likely to be the most popular cash QBs.

  2. Ezekiel Elliott and Toy Pollard make nice leverage plays against the Dallas passing offense. 

  3. D’Onta Foreman is a sneaky large field GPP play (think like 5,000 or more entry tournament.)

  4. Lamar Jackson and Devonta Freeman are a good GPP stack.  It’s a weird stack but the Bears are tied for giving up the most rushing yards this season. 

 Wanna challenge me or just play with friends on FanDuel?!  Use the link FanDuel.com/brotofantasy and get a 20% deposit bonus on NEW accounts!

Best of luck in Week 11, go get that money!

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By Clayton Jones