It’s easy to criticize NFL coaches. Us “couch heros” yell at the screen and implore coaches to make decisions that they do not make. “Go for it on fourth-and-two at the other team’s forty yard line!” “Pass the ball!” “Be aggressive!” The list of exclamations goes on.. and on…. and on. All viable complaints, but there is only ONE mistake that coaches make that is incorrect beyond doubt. Only ONE mistake that, no matter how hard you try to deny it, is always a bad decision. Only ONE mistake that has more than just theoretical fact and numbers behind it. And this ONE mistake is running rampant throughout the league, with no end in sight.
“Coaches shouldn’t call a timeout when trailing at the end of a game”
This mistake involves calling a timeout when trailing in a game just below the 3:00 mark. By calling this crucial timeout, coaches greatly lessen their chances to win the game. That’s right - coaches shouldn’t call a timeout when trailing at the end of a game. Let me explain.
Scenarios:
To explain this mistake, I will direct you to a point this past season in which this mistake happened: Week 15 in LA - Eagles 30, Rams 23.
Afterwards, there were all sorts of critiques about the Rams and praise for the Eagles: Sports Nation referenced Jared Goff’s poor play, ESPN gave all the credit to Nick Foles, and NBC listed “10 Instant observations.” All of these trusted media outlets overlooked a key reason for the Rams failure: Sean McVay’s incorrect usage of a timeout.
Real Life Scenario:
The Eagles have the ball at the Rams 36 after recovering a fumble on the attempted punt return. The Rams have one timeout.
On first down, the Eagles run up the middle with Josh Adams and with 2:45 on the game clock SEAN McVAY CALLS A TIMEOUT!
On second down, the Eagles run up the middle and the play ends below the 2:40 point on the game clock, so the Eagles use the 40 second play clock to run the game clock down to 2:00.
On third down, the Eagles run it again and let the play clock run down before calling a timeout of their own with 1:13 left on the game clock.
On fourth down, Jake Elliott misses a field goal and 5 seconds elapse.
The Rams get the ball back with 1:08 on the game clock - leaving too little time on the clock for the Rams to mount a comeback
That’s what happened in the game. That was the real-life scenario. Now follow along with me as I describe how it should have gone.
Alternate Scenario One:
The Eagles have the ball at the Rams 36 after recovering a fumble on the attempted punt return. The Rams have one timeout.
On first down, the Eagles run up the middle with Josh Adams and Sean McVay lets the clock run. The Eagles are forced to run a play before the two minute warning because the game clock is further from the two minute warning than the 40 second play clock.
On second down, the Eagles run up the middle and the play ends at the two minute warning.
On third down, the Eagles run it again and SEAN McVAY CALLS A TIMEOUT, leaving approximately 1:55 left on the clock.
On fourth down, Jake Elliott misses a field goal and 5 seconds elapse.
The Rams get the ball back with 1:50 on the game clock.
Alternate Scenario Two:
The Eagles have the ball at the Rams 36 after recovering a fumble on the attempted punt return. The Rams have one timeout.
On first down, the Eagles run up the middle with Josh Adams and Sean McVay lets the clock run. The Eagles are forced to run a play before the two minute warning because the game clock is further from the two minute warning than the 40 second play clock.
On second down, the Eagles run up the middle and the play ends with seconds to spare before the two minute warning (Let’s assume 2:02). SEAN McVAY CALLS A TIMEOUT!
On third down, the Eagles run it again and we reach the two-minute warning at (again assuming the length of the play) approximately 1:55.
On fourth down, Jake Elliott misses a field goal and 5 seconds elapse.
The Rams get the ball back with 1:50 on the game clock.
The Rams should have started their drive with 1:50 on the clock. They instead started with 1:08.
With 42 fewer seconds to work with, Jared Goff’s incomplete desperation pass into the endzone from the Eagles 18 yard line as time expired fell short. The Eagles took home a victory and we were left to wonder how an extra 42 seconds could have changed the game.
“The Rams should have started their drive with 1:50 on the clock. They instead started with 1:08”
What happened?
How is that the NFL Whiz Kid can make a mistake that costs his team FORTY-TWO CRUCIAL SECONDS with the game on the line?
I hate to make McVay the poster child for this blunder, as he is certainly not the first or last coach to make this mistake. Nearly every week I stare at game clocks, hoping that a coach doesn’t use this specific timeout, yet they always do.
When is this scenario relevant?
When the team on defense has one timeout left and the team on offense has to run a play before the two-minute warning (The game clock is further away from the two-minute warning than the play clock).
It is a very specific scenario, but it happens often enough to emphasize. This scenario doesn’t occur when a team has two or three time outs. The two timeouts and two minute warning ensure that a team will get the ball back with almost two minutes left as long as their defense makes a stand. Similarly, the three timeouts ensure that a team will get the ball back at the two-minute warning with a timeout to spare or that they will get the ball back before the two-minute warning with no timeouts remaining as long as their defense makes a stand.
This mistake is made when a team has ONE timeout remaining. Furthermore, this mistake is made when a team has ONE timeout remaining and the opposing team is facing a second down with just over 2:40 remaining on a running clock.
What could have been:
By managing the clock correctly, Sean McVay could have forced the Eagles to run two plays before the two minute warning with a timeout in his pocket, or he could have used his timeout and forced the Eagles to run three plays before the two minute warning.
Essentially, this strategy awards a team an extra timeout at a time when they desperately need it.
Let’s remember what McVay did - he called a timeout after the first down play with 2:45 left on the clock. The next play took more than five seconds, pushing the game clock to the two minute warning. Then, the Eagles ran their third down play and ran the clock down to 1:13. Sean McVay was handed a free time out, so to speak, and completely failed to recognize it.
This also puts pressure on an offense to make a play without a timeout being taken, which they are expecting. The most famous example of this is Bill Belichick’s non-call of a timeout with Seattle at the goal line in the 4th quarter of Super Bowl XLIX. The pressure that Seattle felt to make a play without the presumed timeout led to the most famous goal line turnover in Super Bowl history and a championship for the Patriots.
Is there a downside to this?
Well, yes. There is one downside. But it is one that, I believe, is worth risking. The one downside is that your opponent can pass for a first down.
Would you allow a team to pass if it meant 40 more seconds? I would.
By Jason Petropoulos
Follow Jason on twitter @Jasonpetrop
Photo Credits: USA Today, Sports Illustrated, NBC, Productivityist