The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2022. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the NFC North division, bringing you quick-hitting bullets summarizing everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
Offensive Outlook
Kevin O’Connell begins his first year as the Vikings head coach after serving as the Rams offensive coordinator for the past two seasons. An offensive-minded guru at just 37 years old, O’Connell represents a popular trend of young hires around the league.
Wes Philips, son of former Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips, joins O’Connell as the Vikings' new offensive coordinator in 2022. Phillips and O’Connell are familiar with one another from their days on the Rams. Phillips served as the passing game coordinator and has been the tight end coach for Sean McVay for eight seasons.
Notable Additions on Offense: WR Albert Wilson, Rookie G Ed Ingram, Rookie RB Ty Chandler, Rookie WR Jalen Nailor.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: TE Tyler Conklin, RB Wayne Gallman, WR Dede Westbrook.
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins finished as the QB12 overall in 2021 with a hyper-efficient True Throw Value ranked 4th.
Cousins is a perennial QB1 candidate that is heavily undervalued. In 2020 Cousins ranked 2nd in True Throw Value, and in 2019, he ranked 7th. He delivers highly valuable targets to his receivers and will now benefit from a pass-centric offense in the post-Mike Zimmer era.
Cousins has never finished below QB13 overall in his career as a starting quarterback. His ADP is QB15 in 2022.
Cousins is being drafted below his lowest career range of outcomes and is an excellent late-round quarterback target in fantasy drafts this season.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson has the talent and offensive situation to be in contention for the first overall pick in 2022 fantasy drafts.
After scorching the competition as a rookie, Jefferson upped his production to near-nuclear levels in 2021.
The sophomore stud ranked solidified his 4th rated True Target value by finishing 4th in targets (167), 4th in target share (29.9%), 4th in receptions (108), 3rd in yards per game (95.1 YPG), 2nd in receiving yards (1616), 1st in air yards (1996), and the WR4 in PPG (19.4).
Jefferson’s potential as the WR1 overall in 2022 will need to coincide with a monstrous season from Kirk Cousins.
Adam Thielen’s ridiculous touchdown output has been relatively stable for the past few seasons, but the veteran wide receiver is due for serious regression.
In 2021, Thielen’s opportunity share dictated a predictive touchdown output of 5.7.
Theilen managed an unsustainable ten touchdowns despite missing four games.
Nevertheless, the former undrafted star is currently selected as the WR28 in 2022 after finishing with 15.4 PPG last season.
Thielen’s middle-round ADP offers managers decent value in their WR3 slot.
K, J Osborn finished the 2021 season as WR55 in PPG. Osborn enters 2022 with an intriguing ADP of WR73.
Osborn filled in admirably for Thielen in 2021 and will continue to have tangible upside as the Vikings WR3, primarily if the aging veteran deals with nagging injuries.
Running Backs
When Dalvin Cook is healthy, he possesses RB1 overall upside on a weekly basis.
Cook’s touchdown output dropped in 2021, scoring just six total touchdowns as opposed to 13 and 17 in the two previous seasons.
The Vikings’ long-time workhorse remained etched as an RB1 in PPG (RB11) despite negative touchdown regression.
Cook remained a go-to red zone option in 2021, recording 15 touches within the five-yard line.
Unfortunately, he fell victim to unusual luck with only three touchdowns in those scenarios.
Cook ranked second in breakaway runs, recording 21 in only 13 games.
Alexander Mattison is arguably the best handcuff in fantasy football. Mattison finished as the RB7, RB6, RB23, RB8, and RB13 during games that Cook missed.
Tight Ends
Irv Smith returns after losing his 2021 season to a gruesome knee (meniscus) injury.
Those awaiting his NFL breakout may finally get their wish in 2022.
Looking back to the 2020 season, we can see why many are so high on Irv Smith.
In 2020 Smith ranked 8th in True Target Value, 8th in yards per reception, and 6th in PPOxTD.
Smith is staring down the barrel of a TE1 season but is being drafted as the TE16 in 2022.
Bold Predictions
K.J. Osborn outscores Adam Thielen in PPG.
Irv Smith is a Top-7 tight end in 2022.
Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook are WR1 and RB1 overall this season.
Offensive Outlook
Matt Lafleur takes on the assignment as head coach for his third straight year.
Lafleur’s two previous years as the Packers head coach have resulted in MVP trophies for his quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Adam Stenavich is promoted from his position as running game coordinator, and offensive line coach to offensive coordinator after Nathaniel Hackett accepted a job with the Broncos.
The Packers were 10th in offensive points in 2021, passing the ball on 57.1% of the plays.
Notable Additions on Offense: WR Sammy Watkins, Rookie WR Christian Watson, Rookie T Sean Rhyan, Rookie WR Romeo Doubs.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: WR Davante Adams, WR Equanimeous St.Brown, WR Marques Valdez-Scantling.
Quarterbacks
The loss of Davante Adams has dropped Aaron Rodgers’ ADP to low-end QB1 levels at QB12 overall.
Rodgers finished as the QB8(21.1) in PPG in 2021 and the QB4(24.3) in PPG the season prior.
Rodgers will be without any proven weapons but has succeeded without Adams before.
Rodgers' lowest positional finish in PPG without Adams on the roster is QB3 overall.
The two-time defending MVP is being disrespected at his current evaluation and will produce well above his QB12 ADP.
Wide Receivers
The Packers receiving corps is an island of misfit toys sans their all-pro alpha leader.
The top receiving options consist of Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb and rookie wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
Allen Lazard and Sammy Watkins consistently disappoint despite playing with MVP-level talent throughout their careers.
Randall Cobb is far past his prime but cannot maintain consistent production in his twilight years.
Romeo Doubs is a long shot at becoming a viable fantasy starter despite the offseason hype. His fourth-round draft capital and below-average collegiate profile suggest a low hit rate for the rookie out of Nevada.
Christian Watson is in a position to potentially lead the Packers in receiving in his rookie year if he can earn meaningful playing time.
No receiver on this roster had a target share over 15.0% in 2021.
Lazard was not in the top 10 in any efficiency metrics in 2021. He ranked 53rd in True Target Value, 50th in yards per reception and 30th in PPOxTD last season.
Watson’s late-round ADP offers the most value considering his cost.
Sammy Watkins has never reached his True Target Value in PPG. Do not draft Watkins; he will make your team worse.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones has a legitimate opportunity to lead the Packers in rushing and receiving in 2021 with the wide receiver depth chart cluttered with uncertainty.
Since 2019 Aaron Jones is one of only seven running backs to catch at least 148 passes. Jones resides in an elite company with the remaining names on that list comprising Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette and one J.D. McKissic.
Of those running backs, Aaron Jones has the fewest number of receptions and the highest amount of total fantasy points.
Rodgers will need to adapt and change his playing style for Jones to meet his ultimate ceiling, as the running back has just an 11.3% career target share while playing with the future Hall of Fame quarterback.
Jones had just 179 carries and 799 rushing yards(4.7 YPC) in 2021. He finished as the RB11 in PPG, averaging 15.3 per.
Jones is slowly losing his rushing work to the quadzilla, A.J. Dillon.
However, since 2011 there has been an average of 1.38 teammate combos to finish as top 24 RBs in the same season.
A.J. Dillon is being drafted as the RB25 in 2022 but finished as the RB37 in PPG in 2021.
Dillon accumulated three RB1 performances through the last seven weeks of 2021, yet with mediocre peripheral stats.
Tight Ends
Robert Tonyan is returning from a torn ACL suffered during the Packers' Week 8 matchup against the Cardinals. He is the only viable tight end on the roster.
Bold Predictions
Aaron Jones RB1 season with 1000 rushing yards and 1000 receiving yards.
A.J. Dillon is a borderline flex play at best if Aaron Jones is healthy.
Aaron Jones leads the Packers in receiving with Christian Watson as the secondary pass-catcher.
Offensive Outlook
Motor City Dan Campbell is in his second year of biting knee caps as the Lions' head coach.
Former offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn is replaced by Ben Johnson. Johnson has been the tight end coach for the Lions for the past two seasons.
Notable Additions on Offense: WR D.J. Chark, Rookie WR Jameson Willams.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff ranked 31st in True Throw Value in 2021 and fell outside the top 10 in every statistical category despite starting in all 17 games.
Goff had just three QB1 performances last season, falling outside the top-14 QBs in five separate weeks.
Goff ranked 22nd in PPG and is merely a streaming option in leagues that start two quarterbacks.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift’s ADP at RB8 presents obvious risk as he has never met that ceiling in his young career.
Swift harnesses the receiving upside of a top-8 running back in fantasy but will need a ridiculous touchdown output on a low-scoring offense to meet those marks in 2022.
In 2021, he finished as RB10 in PPG (16.1), earning an 18.4% target share while scoring seven touchdowns.
The Lions' pass-catching backfield threat secures the lion’s share of his receptions in garbage time, relying on volatile game scripts and fourth-quarter volume spikes to buoy his production.
Swift is not an overly efficient rusher, with a cumulative RYOE of just six yards, a negative EPA and a lower rush percentage than Jamaal Williams.
Williams is an early-down grinder who can carry a sizable workload as an early-down back, capping Swift’s 2022 ceiling.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 11.6 targets per game over the last six weeks of the 2021 season. During that stretch, the Lions rookie recorded five WR1 finishes, with just one week falling outside the top-10 receivers.
St. Brown’s ADP of WR27 offers excellent value as a high-upside receiver with a potential sophomore leap.
St. Brown’s Broto Player Comparisons were very impressive, with names such as Brandon Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb, Percy Harvin, Laviska Shenault, and Jarvis Landry. The second-year wideout appears to be on a trajectory with his highest comparisons.
Jameson Williams will begin the season on injured reserve and should remain on your watchlists for the second half of the season.
Williams is brimming with potential. The first-round pick out of Alabama compares favorably to Calvin Ridley, William Fuller V, Justin Jefferson, Santonio Holmes, and Odell Beckham Jr.
D.J. Chark rounds out the depth chart as the big-bodied outside threat and decent late-round pick with a cost at WR64.
Josh Reynolds secured a 15.3% target share and has an insane ADP at WR147. Reynolds is an exciting dart throw with your last pick.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson is going off the board near his ceiling as the TE6 in fantasy drafts in 2022.
Hockenson finished the 2021 season as the TE7 in PPG with a 21.0% target share ranked 5th.
If Hockenson slips past his lofty ADP, he is worth drafting.
Bold Predictions
D’Andre Swift finishes outside the top-12 running backs in PPG.
T.J. Hockenson finishes below TE8 overall.
Amon-Ra St.Brown will finish as a high-end WR2, nearing the top-12 options.
Offensive Outlook
Matt Eberflus takes over for Matt Nagy as the Bears head coach after serving as the defensive coordinator for the Broncos.
Luke Getsy steps in as the offensive coordinator. For the past three seasons, Getsy has worked as the passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach for the Packers.
Notable Additions on Offense: TE Ryan Griffen, TE James O’Shaughnessy, WR N’Keal Harry, WR Byron Pringle, WR Equanimeous St. Brown, WR David Moore, WR Tajee Sharp, RB Darrynton Evans, QB Trevor Simien, Rookie WR Velus Jones, Rookie RB Tresten Ebner, Rookie T Braxton Jones, Rookie G Zach Thomas.
Notable Subtractions on Offense: TE Jimmy Graham, WR Allen Robinson, WR Jakeem Grant, WR Marquise Goodwin, T Jason Peters, RB Damien Williams.
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields started ten games in 2021, throwing ten interceptions and only seven touchdowns.
Fields' ceiling relies on his rushing ability, as exhibited by his top five rushing ranking and four QB1 finishes during his starts.
However, the rookie was highly volatile in his first season, with five performances outside the top-24 quarterbacks culminating in a QB24 finish in PPG.
Fields had an 11.8% sack rate per drop back in 2021, ranked first.
The Bears did nothing to help their franchise quarterback in 2022, surrounding him with mediocre talent and a diminishing offensive line. It will be tough for Fields to find much fantasy success in his second season outside of spike weeks and garbage time.
Wide Receivers
The Bears' wide receiver room consists of Darnell Mooney and no one else in terms of fantasy relevance.
Mooney is the de facto target hog on a feeble offense. He recorded a 25.8% target share, ranked 6th in 2021.
However, the second-year wideout was incredibly inefficient, lobbying his monumental target share into a WR35 finish in PPG and WR25 finish overall.
Mooney outperformed his True Target value of 47th overall in 2021 and should continue progressing under his team-leading opportunity share.
Running Backs
David Montgomery will have to work behind the second lowest ranked offensive line(per PFF) in 2022.
Montgomery will ultimately lose some rushing work to Fields on a low-scoring offense behind one of the league's worst offensive lines.
The Bears' lead back ranked ninth in rushing attempts but struggled greatly with efficiency, ranking 58th in PPOxTD and 61st in yards per carry.
Montgomery is a safe pick as an RB2 but presents a stable floor rather than a high ceiling.
Khalil Herbert proved he could handle a three-down workload in his rookie season. If Montgomery is injured, Herbert is a must-start running back in fantasy.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet did not score a touchdown in 2021.
Kmet ranked eight in total targets and seventh in target share at 17.2%.
The Bears' young tight end barely outperformed his 27th True Target Value with a TE25 PPG finish.
Kmet’s fate as a borderline TE1 (TE13 ADP) relies entirely on the ascent of Justin Fields.
Bold Predictions
Khalil Herbert surpasses David Montgomery as the Bears starting running back.
No member on the Bears offense finishes in the top 12 players in PPG outside of quarterbacks.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward