Albert Einstein may have come up with E=MC^2 but I have found a surefire equation that, when used properly, will help fantasy managers on their quest to a league title in 2021. The equation? It’s easy:
K1=QB1
Rick Scuteri / Associated Press
For 10 weeks of the 2020 season, Kyler Murray was an unstoppable fantasy football force. Averaging a league-leading 30.16 points during that span, Kyler was on pace to set the record for the most fantasy points scored in a single season—482.56 fantasy points—surpassing LaDainian Tomlinson’s previous PPR scoring record of 481.1 and shattering Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 QB scoring record of 427.1. An AC joint sprain suffered against the Miami Dolphins, unfortunately, slowed Murray’s epic ascent. Despite the injury and subsequent dropoff, Murray finished as QB3, a mere 11.9 fantasy points behind league leader Josh Allen. On a per-game basis, Kyler’s late deflation did not stop him from keeping on pace with Allen, as he averaged only 0.1 fantasy point per game less than the Bills quarterback. With a healthy off-season behind him, Kyler Murray is locked in as my QB1 in all fantasy leagues, regardless of format.
Kyler has no holes in his game beyond a slight concern in ball management, ending 6th in the NFL with12 INTs last season. A singular focus on his only detriment will surely be a priority for him leading into 2021 and I will never bet against Kyler on improving his game. Interception regression is almost a guarantee as Murray matures and improves his decision-making. Murray has no issues with ball placement or accuracy, posting a top-12 accuracy rating on playerprofiler.com for 2020 and a completion percentage of 67.2%. Kyler’s turnover downside comes from his propensity to gamble on the deep ball when on the run but he certainly made the most of those gambles, finishing 1st in the league in QB Big Plays with 14 while finishing just 5th in deep-ball attempts last season. If any progress is made on Kyler’s 40% deep completion rate, to go along with his already 70.4% play-action completion rate, it will be next to impossible for opposing defenses to compensate. This leads us to the most compelling and difficult attribute when defensive coordinators attempt to gameplan against Kyler Murray—he’s wicked fast.
Posting a 4.44 40 yard dash at his Pro Day for Oklahoma, Kyler’s speed translated directly to rushing success at the pro level. Murray stretches the field with deep throws and stretches plays with his defiant speed and agility. Ranking top five in every statistical rushing category for quarterbacks in 2020, Murray sustains massive volume on the ground with staggering efficiency and jaw-dropping highlights. Kyler’s shiftiness in the open field allows him to excel in both QB-designed runs and when on the move after pass pockets collapse. With 25 red zone rushing attempts and 11 rushing touchdowns in 2020, Murray proved he is lethal with his feet everywhere on the field. Much more than a red-zone rushing threat, Kyler averaged a 66.7 red zone completion percentage, showing he is capable of using his arm accuracy to find his receivers in tight windows.
A constant threat to score, Kyler could even see an uptick in touchdown production as the Arizona Cardinals made off-season moves to improve in every facet on the offensive side of the ball. There is no denying the firepower Arizona has in their offensive arsenal. Although the addition of A.J. Green may not do much to create excitement, the drafting of former Purdue sensation Rondale Moore has certainly moved the needle for this fanbase. A winner of the illustrious Paul Hornung Award in college, awarded to versatile and high-level college football athletes, Moore joins elite company in former winners such as Odell Beckham Jr, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley. Entering the league with mentors like superstar elite talent DeAndre Hopkins, Moore is yet another versatile weapon at the disposal of one of the most lethal threats in the NFL in Murray.
Maintaining the Alpha role in this receiving corps, Hopkins is as elite as it gets in terms of NFL wideouts. Crafted like a fine wine, Hopkins continues to improve yearly, averaging his highest career success rates against man coverage over the last two seasons according to receptionperception.com. The abundance of skilled options on offense for Kyler may never get better, as Arizona looks to capitalize on the salary window available while he is still under a minimal rookie contract.
After losing Kenyan Drake to the Las Vegas Raiders in free agency, Arizona made a quick acquisition of their own in signing former Pittsburgh Steelers running back James Conner. Alongside Chase Edmonds, Conner is expected to serve in this committee behind Kyler as the secondary rushing threat.
Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury traditionally uses running backs sparingly throughout his coaching tenure in Arizona, averaging only 25.6 running back opportunities per game—38th amongst active coaches in the NFL. As such, any worries surrounding Kyler’s rushing volume should be thrown out the window. Expect Murray to once again lead the charge for the Cardinals in the rushing attack.
Calling snaps behind one of the league’s best offensive line units is another positive when projecting Kyler’s 2021 success. A 12th overall ranked offensive line by PFF in 2020 has only gotten better after the free-agent acquisition of center Rodney Hudson. Arguably the best pass blocking center in the NFL, Hudson is one of the only players at the position to post three or more years of pass blocking grades above 90.0. This now gives the Cardinals two elite lineman, as they already have left tackle DJ Humphries anchoring the blindside. Justin Pugh and Justin Murray offset the guard positions and both finished with top-16 pass-blocking grades in 2020. This offensive line is not built to be a smash-mouth zone-blocking unit but is rather built to cater to Murray and his unique skill set. On the rare occasion that the pass protection does break down, Kyler finds ways of consistently making magic out of busted plays.
A consistent contributor, Murray is certainly able to produce beyond the mesmerizing highlights. Kyler had more weekly QB1 finishes than Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and as he had only three weekly finishes in the QB2 tier, opposed to Mahomes and Allen who registered five each in said range. Averaging 0.054 fantasy points per drop back in 2020, the consistent level of upper echelon production is a fantasy football manager’s dream.
Fortunately, for keen managers entering drafts this year, Murray’s ADP is the ultimate draft steal in fantasy football. A PPR redraft ADP of 43.5 offers managers the ability to stack premium talent around a quarterback with a solidified QB1 ceiling. In Superflex or two QB leagues, Kyler is my 1.01 overall, especially in Dynasty formats. At only 24 years old, we have yet to see the pinnacle of Kyler’s talent. Murray is entering his prime in his 3rd season and is surrounded by the best weapons of his young career. I am all in on the talents of Murray and will even go as far as to say that this year will be his first of several MVP seasons in the NFL.
The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for player cards, statistics, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
By Matthew Ward (@PsychWard16)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.