Week 15: Sleepers and Busts

Sleepers

QB: Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers

The Boston Glove

I was originally going to choose Tua Tagovailoa as my QB sleeper but felt that that was too mainstream and lacked upside. With Waddle and almost every Dolphins RB out, Tua will be without his usual group of weapons. As such, I expect him to finish in the QB10-18 range, where he's finished in all his useful games this season.

Big Ben Roethlisberger, however, is my favorite sleeper QB who is likely available in your league. In his past four games, Big Ben has been QB9 or better three times. Now he gets a matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who are ranked as the third easiest matchup for QBs in BRoto's Exclusive Defensive Points Over Average Stat.

After four games outside of the top-23 QBs to begin the 2021 season, Big Ben has been QB18 or better in six of his past eight games. Moreover, in that same stretch since week 4, he has 15 TDs to just 3 INTs.

Big Ben's Steelers farewell tour continues with a game against Tennessee and he's ready to carry needy playoff teams to the next round.

  • Jason Petropoulos

RB: D’Onta Foreman - Tennessee Titans

The fantasy football playoffs have arrived. The margin for error is non-existent. This is the time of year when start/sit decisions can make or break your entire season.

By now, you are aware of the increasing COVID-19 complication impacting the league. If you have a running back on your roster with two legs, a pulse, and a healthy designation, you are likely starting them in these desperate times. Even during this terrifying wave of uncharted territory, there remains one player that I believe to be under-rostered and overlooked.

D’Onta Foreman is rostered in 60% of collective redraft leagues across all platforms. I find it baffling that a starting running back at this juncture in the NFL season is left on any waiver wires at all. During the past two games, Foreman has led the Titans’ backfield in carries (43) and rushing yards (156). Foreman has also led the Titans in rush percentage since Week 11, as he records a carry on 52% of his offensive snaps. Foreman has a firm grip on the lead rushing duties while Jeremey McNichols and Dontrell Hilliard handle change-of-pace work. 

The Titans (9-4) are coming off their bye to face the Steelers (6-6-1) on the road in Week 15. The Steelers rank in the top-ten defenses in points allowed to the running back position. They concede 25.2 PPG to running backs this season, with most of the permitted production coming via rushing yards as opposed to pass-catchers out of the backfield. Of those total 25.2 PPG, the Steelers allow 17.8 PPG to rush production alone, equating to 23.3% over the league average to their matchup.

Foreman is in an excellent spot to expose an already faltering rush defense. Foreman has a substantial upside in a barren wasteland of inactive players.

  • Matt Ward

WR: Josh Reynolds - Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions offense has experienced some unfortunate injuries to some of their best players recently. The likes of D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, and Jamaal Williams have all been missing from recent games, which has opened up the door for other skill players to capitalize on their opportunities.

Players like Amon-Ra St Brown and Josh Reynolds have been the biggest contributors to the Lions passing game as of late and, with Swift and Hockenson being out for another game, I would expect Jared Goff to heavily rely on his top receivers.

As such, Josh Reynolds is a high quality sleeper option heading into this weekend’s games. 

Ever since making his way to Detroit in week 11, it’s been obvious that Goff and Reynolds still have their chemistry from their days in Los Angeles together. While Goff doesn’t force the ball to Reynolds on every play, it’s still clear that Goff trusts his receiver and wants to get him involved, especially downfield. In their last 3 games, Reynolds has seen 17 targets and has produced almost 200 receiving yards (191 to be exact) with 10 receptions and a touchdown. He’s been averaging almost 20 yards per catch and has proven to be the top deep threat in the Motor City. 

As the Lions head into their matchup with the Cardinals on Sunday, it’s safe to assume that they’ll be trailing and trying to play catch up with the Cardinals all day long. This has me pretty hopeful for Reynolds’ fantasy value this week, as the Cardinals have been the 7th best matchup for opposing fantasy wide receivers this season. All it takes is one deep downfield TD connection from Goff to Reynolds and his fantasy day is made. I’m putting my Josh Reynolds' chip into the pot and cashing in on Sunday.

  • Boyd Armstrong

TE: David Njoku - Cleveland Browns

Ideally I would be avoiding a COVID game regarding my sleeper of the week, but this one is a bit different. It is evident that the NFL will not be cancelling this game as they have moved it to Monday night and David Njoku, luckily enough, is one player coming off the COVID list. As a matter of fact, starting tight end Austin Hooper is currently on track to be inactive with COVID alongside starting QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry. Even the second string QB Case Keenum is on the COVID list, which leads me to the most substantial reason I am intrigued by Njoku this week.

Not only is Njoku without much competition for targets this week, he will likely be catching passes from Nick Mullens. While on the surface it may seem negative the third string QB will be active for the Browns this week, this may not truly be the case. Mullens is a gunslinger who is not afraid to toss the football around with reckless abandon. More specifically he has an affinity to pass it to the tight end, and the middle of the field in general. 

This week, the Browns face off against the Raiders. The Raiders are allowing a whopping 34% POA which is the 5th most favorable matchup in the entire NFL (Fantasy Football by BRoto App). On average, they are allowing 15 PPG to the tight end position. While options are likely to be few and far between this week, Njoku is an exciting option with big-play ability in a depleted lineup.

  • Nick Beaulieu

Busts

QB: Russell Wilson - Seattle Seahawks

I didn't draft Russell Wilson anywhere this season, so I don't need to decide whether or not to start him this week. To be honest, people with Wilson at QB got to the playoffs in spite of him. Yet to finish above QB8 this season, Wilson has as many games outside the top-15 QBs as he does within the top-10. Wilson's rushing skills are essentially non-existent these days and he's had better days throwing the ball. Now, most of his weapons are hobbled. Tyler Lockett is on the COVID list, DK Metcalf hasn't practiced, Freddie Swaim hasn't practiced, and Alex Collins is on the COVID list.

Division battles between the Seahawks and Rams have typically resulted in low-scoring affairs. I expect the same this week, at least for the Seahawks.

  • Jason Petropoulos

RB: Miles Sanders - Philadelphia Eagles

To reiterate my disclaimer above, if you have a healthy running back on your roster, you will likely start them regardless of projections or defensive matchups. However, I feel it necessary to offer a word of caution when it comes to relying on Miles Sanders in the fantasy playoffs.

The Eagles (6-7) face off against NFC East divisional rivals in Week 15 as they welcome the Washington Football team (6-7). Washington’s defense had its share of defensive woes earlier in the season but has since found an identity. One of the top teams in the league at defending the rush, Washington allows just 19.2 PPG to running backs, 14.7% below the defensive points over average to the position.

Sanders is coming off a big game in Week 13, but that performance came against the best matchup imaginable for running backs: The Jets. Washington is a much more capable unit, ranking in the top-five teams in rushing yards allowed per game at 93.6.

Sanders has not been consistently targeted in the passing game and relies heavily on big rushing games to produce relevant fantasy numbers. He has not scored a touchdown in 2021. In his last three starts, Sanders has earned only five targets, catching four for 22 yards. Sanders is leaking value like a sieve, and unless he finds the endzone on multiple occasions, managers will once again be left sorely disappointed with his production.

  • Matt Ward

WR: Terry McLaurin - Washington Football Team

Terry McLaurin is currently on a three game streak of scoring less than ten half-PPR points, heading into this week’s matchup against the daunting Philadelphia Eagles secondary. I expect that streak to hit four. 

This Eagles defense has been no joke and is currently ranked as the 2nd toughest matchup for opposing fantasy receivers and has allowed a negative fantasy points over average of -26.1% (Fantasy Football by BRoto App). 

As if this incredibly difficult matchup wasn’t a big enough reason to worry, another hurdle just appeared in Terry’s way. On Friday morning, Washington’s starting QB, Taylor Heinicke, and backup QB, Kyle Allen, were placed on the COVID-19 list. This means that former Patriots’ practice squad QB Garrett Gilbert could be Washington’s starting QB against the Eagles. 

It seems like a mixing pot of disaster is brewing for Terry McLaurin’s fantasy value this Sunday and I urge his fantasy managers to look into a replacement option if they have reasonable ones left.

  • Boyd Armstrong

TE: Noah Fant - Denver Broncos

This segment of the article is going to start off with one statement: Free Noah Fant. After showing improvement in targets, catches, and yardage his first two years in the league, the expectation for Fant was that he would take a third year leap toward elite tight end status. Unfortunately for Fant and his fantasy believers, this has not been the case. Fant has only landed as a TE1 five times this season, with four finishes of TE3 or worse. 

Ever since Jerry Jeudy and Albert Okwuegbunam have both returned from injury, Fant has seen finishes of TE30 (2.7 FP), TE18 (5.3 FP), and TE14 (7.1 FP), respectively. He has not topped more than 8.4 Half PPR points since Week 6, where he scored 20.2 points. He also has not scored a touchdown since Week 6 as well. Fellow tight ends Okwuegbunam and Saubert have each scored in the red zone during that stretch. It is clear the focus of the Broncos offense is anything but the passing game and, even when passing, Noah Fant is not a relied-upon target whatsoever. It’s difficult to bench Fant given how he is certainly a gifted athlete and draft capital was intended to have him as a “set it and forget it” player, but he carries almost no upside and it feels there just aren’t enough targets to go around in Denver.

  • Nick Beaulieu

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