Week 15: Stock Up and Stock Down

Stock Up 

Nick Chubb RB – Cleveland Browns 

Nick Chubb has certainly disappointed in his last two outings. With Kareem Hunt likely out for week 15, however, Chubb’s stock is rising. 

In week 11, with Hunt out, Chubb handled a 73.3% rushing share and a 6.9% target share. In week 9, with Hunt out again, Chubb held a 63.6% rushing share and 9.5% target share. Based on these numbers, we can expect Chubb to manage a 65%+ rushing share and 7-10% target share. With that much work, Chubb is a shoe-in RB1—for reference, Chubb finished as RB3 in half-PPR in week 9 and RB7 in week 11.

The schedule is also quite kind for Chubb. Here are the points over average for RBs for the Browns upcoming schedule:

• Raiders: 38.7%, 3rd best matchup for RBs

• Packers: -6.2%, 22nd best matchup for RBs (Packers are giving up 17.8% points over average to pass-catching RBs, 10th best matchup for pass-catching RBs.)

• Steelers: 10.4%, 9th best matchup for RBs

Chubb could be a playoff hero depending on Hunt’s status for the rest of the season (with or without Baker Mayfield, who recently tested positive for COVID).

• Clay Jones  

David Montgomery RB - Chicago Bears

David Montgomery consistently generates efficient rushing numbers. Montgomery’s stock has steadily increased since he returned from injury in Week 9. Where that value derives from, however, is a surprising source. 

Over the past two games, David Montgomery has led the Bears in targets. In Week 13 and 14, Montgomery earned 16 combined targets, recording 14 receptions for 90 yards. I believe Montgomery’s current usage and production in the passing game shows a continuing trend of things to come. 

Montgomery has proven to be a reliable security blanket for rookie quarterback Justin Fields. The Bears offensive line is horrendous, allowing 42 total sacks this season. The constant pressure from defenders has left Fields to look for the short-yardage pass while under duress.

Montgomery can produce low-end RB1 numbers based on his rushing upside alone. Extended and consistent use in the passing game could turn Montgomery into a PPR nightmare. Expect Montgomery to continue his steadfast climb up the rankings. You will be sure to see his name listed on multiple championship rosters.

• Matt Ward 

Dallas Cowboys D/ST

Dan Quinn, with much thanks to rookie Micah Parsons, has done an amazing job with the Cowboys defense. Let’s take a look at how the Dallas defense has performed throughout the season. 

• In weeks 1-5, the Cowboys defense allowed 23.4 PPG.

• In weeks 6-9, the Cowboys defense allowed 19.5 PPG.

• In weeks 10-14, the Cowboys defense allowed 23 PPG. 

Even with injuries and inopportune Dak Prescott turnovers, the Cowboys defense is one to avoid playing non-studs against. 

With Randy Gregory and potential defensive player of the year Micah Parsons wreaking havoc on opposing QBs, Dallas ranks as the 28th best matchup for QBs and are giving up -8.4% points over average to QBs. Always start your studs, but maybe rethink starting RB/WR 2&3’s vs. Dallas. 

USA Today

Per pro-football reference, the Cowboys rank third in pressure rate at 27.8% and the Cowboys are third in total pressures at 146. 

Here are some more interesting Dallas defensive stats, courtesy of pro-football reference:

• Dallas is 2nd in INT% 

• Dallas is 3rd in opposing QB rating

• Dallas is 4th in opposing QB completion percentage. 

The Dallas defense is the engine that has kept the Dallas win-train rolling.

• Clay Jones 

Stock Down 

DK Metcalf – WR Seattle Seahawks 

Metcalf is getting decent volume since Russell Wilson returned from injury but DK hasn’t scored a TD since week 8. There is certainly a lot of blame to be thrown around, especially at Russ Wilson. Here are Russ’ completion percentages since he came back:

• Week 10- 50%

• Week 11- 54%

• Week 12- 65%

• Week 13- 81%

• Week 14- 61% 

For perspective, per pro-football reference, Russell Wilson’s career completion percentage is 65.1%, so he’s been up and down since the finger injury. 

Basically, Metcalf is being held-up partially by Russ. Metcalf’s points per opportunity rank is 42nd. If Russ can’t get right, Metcalf can’t get right. 

Russ and Metcalf can get back on track in a snap. Right now, however, things are looking bleak heading into the fantasy playoffs. 

• Clay Jones 

Denver Broncos WRs

I could not single out an individual member of the Broncos receiving corps, as every pass-catcher in this offense has taken a nose-dive into mediocre irrelevance. 

Teddy Bridgewater’s efficiency metrics continue to regress, and the Broncos play-calling has resorted to a run-heavy approach in attempts to compensate. There appear to be too many mouths to feed for any of these receivers to find meaningful production.

The Broncos spent a handsome share of their future salary cap to retain the services of wide receivers Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton. An odd way to allocate valuable cap space when neither receiver is utilized in the offense. The duo was signed to bolster an already crowded receiving room with sophomore Jerry Jeudy on his rookie contract. All three receivers have reached a drastic mid-season slump that has the entire Broncos fan base questioning the decision to re-sign the receivers.

Let’s start with Sutton. Since inking his extension on November 22nd, Sutton has played in three games. In those three games combined, Sutton has earned just 11 total targets. He has five receptions and 41 yards in those contests. Sutton has scored 3.7, 3.5, and 1.9 FPTS during those games. Sutton’s streak of petulant decline began well before the Broncos decided to extend the fourth year wideout. Sutton has scored below double-digits in six consecutive games.

Patrick signed his deal three days before Sutton on November 19th. Patrick has played in four games since signing his multi-year contract with the Broncos. Patrick received 19 combined targets during those games. He has been inexcusably inefficient during that stretch, recording a despicable eight receptions for 70 yards. Patrick has not scored a touchdown since signing his extension.

Lastly, we have second year wideout and route-runner extraordinaire Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy has led the receiving corps with 24 targets in the last four games. Nevertheless, Jeudy has been averaging an unreliable 9.0 PPG since Week 10 and has yet to catch a touchdown at any point this season.

Teddy Bridgewater has not been efficient enough to support the Broncos receiving options in a low volume passing offense. It is hard to envision the Broncos changing their offensive philosophy at this point in the season.

• Matt Ward 

Carolina D/ST

The Carolina defense has literally been a rollercoaster this year. Here’s a quick breakdown of their record and PPG allowed in those time spans. 

• In weeks 1-5, the Carolina defense allowed 17.4 PPG and they finished with a 3-2 record.

• In weeks 6-9, the Panthers allowed 24 PPG and they finished with a 1-3 record

• In weeks 10-14, the Panthers allowed 24.75 PPG and they finished with a 1-3 record. 

So, what does this all mean? The Panthers defense is not one to shy away from. 

In the beginning of the season, we avoided the Carolina defense. Now, we know better. 

• Clay Jones