Week 11: Buy Low and Sell High

Each week, several members of the BRoto staff will offer one player each to buy low on and one player each to sell high on. Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring players at their lowest value and dealing players at their highest values!

Now let's dive in to the week 11 targets and sells:

Buy Low 

Marquise Brown - WR Baltimore Ravens 

Baltimore Ravens

An intriguing narrative is floating around that rookie wideout Rashod Bateman has superseded Marquise “Hollywood” Brown as the WR1 in the Ravens offense. Although the rookie has been impressive in his first four starts as a pro, his opportunity share in the offense reflects a tertiary receiving option. Hollywood, on the other hand, is being targeted at a frenetic rate.

Hollywood is in the midst of a career year and is on the trajectory to smash all his prior season-highs. He leads the Ravens in all receiving metrics in 2021. Hollywood’s 26.6% target share ranks 14th in the NFL and well ahead of Bateman’s 19.2%. 

The arrival of Bateman has not stemmed Hollywood’s usage at all. In fact, Hollywood’s largest four-game target share of 2021 has come in the four games Bateman has been on the field. The reason being is the polar difference in the two receiver’s profiles. Hollywood is a sensational speedster that has now developed into an elusive route runner. Hollywood leads the league in deep ball targets with 19. Bateman is a physical force but has been used as an intermediate or short-yard threat to move the sticks, much like how the Colts used Michael Pittman Jr. in his rookie year.

The Ravens Week 10 loss to the Dolphins was the first game Bateman outscored Hollywood in fantasy points. Those numbers are encouraging for the rookie from a raw production perspective but have led to a misleading value regression between the teammates. 

Bateman's ascent will only help open defenses up for Hollywood. I would test the waters with Hollywood's managers on their roster and see if Bateman’s “breakout” game has them feeling anxious about the future.

• Matt Ward

Elijah Mitchell - RB San Francisco 49ers 

The 49ers put a beatdown on the Rams on Monday Night Football and many eager fantasy players watched as Deebo Samuel rushed the ball five times, finding the end zone on one of those carries, and Jeffery Wilson rushed the ball ten times. Seeing those two receive fifteen combined touches made many people ask: Where's Elijah Mitchell? 

Well, Elijah Mitchell was busy receiving twenty-seven carries--a season and career high. While others wonder if Mitchell will retain his stranglehold on the 49ers backfield, you should be confident that he will and acquire him at a nice price. 

While Mitchell's rush share did decrease in week 10, it only dropped to 73% which is a more-than-respectable number for a Shanahan RB. 

With a gorgeous matchup schedule ahead for 49ers RBs—JAX, MIN, SEA, CIN, ATL, TEN, HOU—Mitchell holds league-winning upside, even if Wilson isn't a complete afterthought in that offense. 

It also should be mentioned that Mitchell is dealing with a fractured finger, but the 49ers think he can play through it. This should drive his price down lower, which offers more of a reason to try to acquire him. 

• Jason Petropoulos 

A.J. Brown - WR Tennessee Titans 

Go get AJB now.  I’m not concerned about his four targets this past week while dealing with All-Pro corner Marshon Lattimore. On the season, AJB has a 22.3% target share. Here is a list of AJB’s target share since week 5:

• 27.3%

• 31%

• 32.1%

• 32.4%

• 40.7%

Week 10’s target share is not listed above but based on the data provided do you really need it?! Brown is getting the ball at a frantic rate and is the only playmaker left on this Titans offense.  

Per playerproflier.com, AJB is commanding a crazy 41.7% air yards share of the Titans offense.  Brown is also 14th in the BRoto Exclusive total adjusted air yards at 386.  Brown is also top 10 at 0.57 fantasy points/route run per playerprofiler.com.  

Although Tennessee’s defense has been decent lately, they still will give up points, forcing the Titans to pass more. Tannehill has pass attempts of 33, 27, and 27 the past three weeks and are passing at a 50.5% rate on the season, the highest of Vrabel’s career.  This is the absolute last time you can get AJB relatively cheap. Try to exploit your league mates and get AJB on your team.  

• Clay Jones 

Sell High 

Antonio Gibson - RB Washington Football Team 

Antonio Gibson’s leg is broken. Seriously. 

Right now, the starting RB for the Washington Football Team, whose legs are his livelihood, is playing with tiny cracks called stress fractures in his shin. The injury has limited Gibson in practices and games for at least the last month, yet he continues to be absent on the final injury report each week and continues to play through the injury. 

According to the Cleveland Clinic, stress fractures are mostly caused by the overuse of the bone, and the projected timeline for its healing is 4-6 weeks, but there is a caveat. The timeline for the healing process involves resting and giving the bone time away from the activity that caused the injury in the first place. Gibson is obviously on a different timeline. 

Despite playing on a fractured shin, Gibson got the lions shares of the snaps and carries in the backfield for WFT, finishing as RB4 with 20.8 points in half-PPR formats against a Buccaneers team that is giving up just over 18 points a game to running backs coming into the game, -8.5% Points Over Average to the RBs they’ve faced.

So, if he is within his healing timeline and he just outscored the entire team’s RB rooms vs. the Bucs by himself, then why on earth is he a sell high candidate? There are a few reasons:

1. He is obviously still hobbled. Despite getting in the end zone twice in the last game, and rushing the ball 24 times, Gibson mustered just 64 yards on the ground, an average of 2.7 yards per carry. This brought his season total to 3.7 YPC, good for 34th in the NFL behind Sony Michel. While the two touchdowns look nice on paper and in your lineups, the truth of yesterday was that Gibson was highly ineffective and was floated by TDs. This has been the case all season, as Gibson’s injury has slowed him down to a plotter, recording just one rush over 20 yards in the first 10 weeks. Gibson reminds me a lot of Josh Jacobs last season, unless he scores a TD (or a couple of TDs in this case) you are going to be disappointed. Gibson currently ranks 54th in the NFL in Points Per Opportunity Excluding TDs (PPOxTD).

2. The WFT offense stinks. Led by a backup QB and a hodgepodge of unproven weapons (outside of Terry McLaurin) Washington is 25th in offensive PPG in 2021, averaging less than three touchdowns a game (20.9 PPG), even after their 29-point showing last week. Relying on a score from a hobbled player who is on a team that struggles to score is not ideal.

3. His value will drop again after next week and trade deadlines are approaching. After last week’s TD inflated game, Gibson will face the Carolina Panthers who currently give up the 28th most points to RBs overall and are the league worst matchup for RBs according to POA, allowing nearly 25% less points than the average of the running backs they’ve faced. Right now is your opportunity to upgrade your team and torpedo a Week 11 matchup for someone else as playoff races tighten.

It’s worth noting that this is specific to redraft. In dynasty, I am buying Gibson, especially if I am a team out of the playoff hunt, because I still believe in him as a talent, just not when he’s playing on a broken leg. Use the spike in value to make your redraft team better. Sell Gibson 

• Tim Petropoulos 

Darrell Williams - RB Kansas City Chiefs 

That was quite a show Mr. Williams put on Sunday night in Vegas. Hopefully, your league mates also noticed. Recency bias is a hell of a drug. 

I get it, he is the starting RB in one of the best offenses in the league. How much longer will he be the only RB though? He has been leading a backfield where his only competition was Jerick McKinnon and Derrick Gore, but, unfortunately for him, starting RB and last year’s first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire has a chance to suit up for the Chiefs next game, and CEH was the starter when healthy. 

This one is quite simple, if you can get it done, sell Williams to someone who isn’t paying much attention. 

• Clay Jones 

Hunter Henry - TE New England Patriots 

Hunter Henry is the TE4 on the season. Flying high after his only two-touchdown performance of the season in Week 10, Henry is the ideal sell-high.

Henry has seven TDs on 31 receptions, leading to an absurd TD percentage of 22.6. In the six games in which he has scored a TD, Henry has been TE14 or better every time. In the four games in which he hasn't caught a TD, Henry has been TE20 or worse every time. Aside from TDs, Henry has surpassed four receptions only two times this season--and even in those games, he had five and six receptions. Moreover, Henry has only exceeded 42 receiving yards one time this season. 

Essentially, Hunter Henry is bound for three catches and thirty yards each week, numbers that would be revolting if not for his TD prowess. With an unsustainable TD% and a bye week still on the horizon for the Patriots, flip Henry now while he is at peak value. You don't even need to trade him for a TE either, as people like Dan Arnold and Tyler Conklin may be on your waiver wires already. 

• Jason Petropoulos

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